The Toronto Blue Jays and Boston Red Sox face off at Rogers Centre on Wednesday night. This is the third contest in a four-game set between these AL East foes and after the Jays won the first two games, they are -150 home favorites tonight.
Here are our best free MLB betting picks and predictions for Red Sox vs. Blue Jays on April 27, with the first pitch scheduled for 7:07 p.m. ET.
Red Sox vs Blue Jays odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
This line hit the board with the Blue Jays installed as -135 home favorites with the Over/Under at 9.0. Early money has come in on the Jays and the Under with the line shifting to Toronto at -150 and the total ticking down to 8.5.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Red Sox vs Blue Jays predictions
Picks made on 4/27/2022 at 12:05 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Red Sox vs Blue Jays game info
• Location: Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON
• Date: Wednesday, April 27, 2022
• First pitch: 7:07 p.m. ET
• TV: NESN, Sportsnet
Red Sox vs Blue Jays betting preview
Starting pitchers
Michael Wacha (1-0, 1.88 ERA): The righty is coming off a win against the Rays where he limited his former club to three hits and a pair of runs in 5 innings. The 30-year-old has struggled with his control this season but has been doing an excellent job of making batters miss, pitching to a 0.91 WHIP with a .125 OBA in 14 1-3 innings. That's a big difference from the 1.31 WHIP and .270 OBA that Wacha posted in 124 2-3 innings with Tampa Bay last year.
Ross Stripling (0-0, 4.50 ERA): Stripling was acquired by the Jays at the trade deadline in 2020 and has been useful for his ability to come out of the bullpen, or start when needed. He has started two games this year, pitching four scoreless innings against the A's on April 15, and allowing three runs on five hits in four innings versus the Astros last Friday. In 101 1-3 innings last year, Stripling pitched to a 4.80 ERA with a 1.27 WHIP and a .251 OBA.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Red Sox: Josh Taylor RP (Out).
Blue Jays: Lourdes Gurriel Jr. OF (Questionable), Cavan Biggio 2B (Out), Danny Jansen C (Out), Teoscar Hernandez OF (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 4-0 in the Red Sox's last 4 games when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game. Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Blue Jays
Red Sox vs Blue Jays picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
Toronto won in extra innings against Boston last night to improve its record to 12-6, the best mark in the AL East. The Blue Jays are 6-1 in their last seven games which includes four victories versus the Red Sox.
Chalk it up to a short spring training or something else, but most teams have been cold as ice at the dish to start the year. Despite a loaded lineup, the Red Sox are just 23rd in the majors with an OPS of .620. Although the Jays are sixth with an OPS of .737, that's still a pretty big drop-off from their MLB best .797 OPS last year.
The batters on both teams could be in for a big game today, especially with a couple of mediocre starters on the mound.
Ross Stripling gets the start for Toronto with Hyun Jin Ryu sidelined with a forearm injury. Stripling is coming off a game against the Astros last Friday where he looked good through the first two innings, but then got lit up in the third. The righty had a 4.80 ERA in 101 1-3 innings last year and allowed a whopping 23 home runs with a hard-hit rate of 40.3%.
The Sox will respond with Michael Wacha, who looked like he had a bright future when he entered the majors with the Cardinals, making the All-Star game as a 23-year-old in 2015. It's been all downhill for Wacha since with the right-hander bottoming out, sporting a 5.39 ERA and 1.36 WHIP over the last two years. That said, Wacha has looked sharp to begin the season and his changeup has been unhittable.
We don't have a whole lot of faith in either pitcher and the Red Sox have struggled at the dish. However, we think their big bats are bound to break out soon and Stripling is certainly vulnerable on the mound. That gives value to the road team with their line ticking up to +130.
Prediction: Red Sox moneyline (+130 at bet365)
Over/Under analysis
Both teams are capable of hitting much better and last night's game was a good indication of that. Only three total runs were scored through the first seven innings before the BoSox drove in four runs in the eighth, and the Jays responded with three runs in the bottom of the ninth.
These teams were second and third in the majors in OPS last season and their lineups are still more or less intact. Sure the Jays lost Marcus Semien, and Teoscar Hernandez is injured (while Lourdes Gurriel is questionable) but they added Matt Chapman and still have Vladdy Guerrero Jr. and George Springer.
The Red Sox also have a dangerous group of sluggers led by Rafael Devers and Xander Bogaerts, while J.D. Martinez is back in the lineup after missing their previous series against the Rays. Back the Over.
Prediction: Over 8.5 (-114 at FanDuel)
Best bet
Like we said, hitting has been down across the majors this season, but it's only a matter of time before batters get their timing down. These teams look due for an offensive explosion, and both starters are also due for some major regression.
Stripling has a history of allowing hard contact and his extremely low hard-hit rate this season is a clear outlier. Meanwhile, Wacha's BAbip of .114 and FIP of 4.68 clearly indicate his early-season ERA is unsustainable.
We're taking the Over 4.5 on the first five innings here and expecting at least one of these teams to bust out.
Pick: First 5 innings Over 4.5 (-115 at DraftKings)
