Red Sox vs Braves Predictions, Picks, Odds: Murphy Beats Up on BoSox

We have a great matchup tonight when the Atlanta Braves travel to face off against the Boston Red Sox in a nationally televised game. 

Each of these teams has surged lately: The Braves have won three of their last four, while Boston will come into this matchup as winners of eight of its previous nine games, the lone blemish a loss to the Phillies last time out. 

What's the best bet for this matchup? Find out in our MLB picks and predictions for Braves vs. Red Sox on Tuesday, May 9.

Red Sox vs Braves odds

Red Sox vs Braves predictions

If you're looking for a matchup to throw together one of those longshot parlays, this may be the game to do it. 

This will be an exciting one between two hot teams, with potent offenses facing off against suspect pitchers. With that said, I will sprinkle a few underpriced bets, and we will talk about those soon. However, my best bet will target one of the most consistent hitters in the Braves lineups. I'm grabbing Sean Murphy over 1.5 bases at a plus-money price point.

Now, before we even get into the matchup specifics of this one, consider a few things first. It’s going to be a hot, windy night in Truist Park. Moderate winds will be blowing out to the right-center field. Balls will carry, and Nick Pivetta has a 33% flyball rate on the season. In addition, the raw implied probability here, if you're looking at Murphy's last 10 games, is +100. He's been hot and gone over this in five of his last 10 games. I'll take +135 with a player like that.

Now to the matchup:

Pivetta has been pounded by power hitters this season. He's near the bottom of baseball in many metric categories that illustrate how hard you are hit. The most notable is the barrel rate, where Pivetta is almost dead last among starting pitchers. Does Murphy have power? Well, yeah, that. He has some of the best power in baseball. He's fourth overall in isolated power among any major league hitter and has the highest barrel rate among Braves at 24%. This is a matchup tailor-made for Murphy. It gets a little better, though. 

Pivetta has partly struggled this season because of his issues with the four-seam fastball. However, it's the pitch batters have the best hard-hit rate on and have served up an xSLG rate of over .600 this season. It adds to the allure of backing Murphy here, too. He's been one of the best fastball hitters in the Braves lineup this season with a red-hot .455 batting average against it. 

I love this matchup for Murphy. I will also throw a 1/4 unit on him to go deep at +500 on bet365. I'm going to do the same with Ronald Acuna at +330. Both have great matchups, but Murphy is a bit more favorable. 

My best bet: Sean Murphy Over 1.5 bases (+135)

Red Sox vs Braves moneyline analysis

While I lean toward Atlanta here, I will pass on a side. I'm not in a hurry to fade a team that has been as hot as the Red Sox have been. My projections saw a game that was around 6-5 and gave the Braves a 60% chance of winning. That's not worth eating the juice of -180 available on the Braves, nor do I see enough value in backing a pitcher-like value. 

However, the online here is worth a look. As of publication, you could get Boston +1.5 at -126 over at FanDuel. Outside of that, I need to see more of an edge here and a game that will likely come down to how the bullpens perform. 

Boston has had its way historically with trips to Atlanta. The Red Sox are an impressive 21-6 in the last 27 meetings in Atlanta. As previously mentioned, they've also been hot with four straight wins over teams above .500. So, while I can't quite get there on a moneyline bit, it's tough to think +1.5 on the run line at a reasonable price is a bad bet. 

Red Sox vs Braves Over/Under analysis

I'm taking a stab at the Over here for various reasons. First, I grabbed Over 9.5 at -110. 

I projected this number at 10 and saw some value here. I talked a ton about Pivetta on the mound for the Red Sox and why I expect Atlanta to succeed against him. It's worth revisiting Morton, as we're starting to see some real regression from him. 

Morton is finding far too many bats, and his real struggle pitch has been his four-seam fastball. It has appeared to lose velocity for the second straight year, and batters have seized on that, hitting over .300 against him this season. This Red Sox lineup is full of strong fastball hitters, notably Rafael Devers. Boston should be able to do enough to assist with this one going Over.

Red Sox vs Braves game info

Starting pitchers

Nick Pivetta (2-2, 4.99 ERA): Few pitchers have been hit as hard as Pivetta has this season. As a result, Pivetta is at the bottom of any metric you'd use to measure a pitcher's ability to induce soft contact. That's problematic when you play in the division he does, and naturally, it's shown up with an ERA that is nearly 5.

Every start Pivetta has made this season has yielded at least one home run except one. His last start against the Toronto Blue Jays saw him surrender multiple long balls and three earned runs in five innings. That ultimately ended up being an excellent damage limitation, given how hard-hit some of the balls were in that game. 

Charlie Morton (3-3, 3.38 ERA): At some point, there will be steep regression for the 39-year-old hurler. It could be now. Morton's start to the season has been rough, and frankly, he's lucky to have an ERA of under 4. An expected ERA of 5.24 tells that story.

Morton needs to find more bets to start the season. His whiff rate is slightly below league average, while his expected batting average and K rate are in the bottom 30% of baseball. His last start was pretty indicative of his season's work. It came against the New York Mets, where he surrendered four earned runs through six innings. 

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Sean Murphy has gone Over 1.5 bases in five of his last 10 games. Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Braves

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