After a quiet Thursday, we've got a fully packed slate of MLB odds betting on Friday with the final contest taking place between the Boston Red Sox and San Francisco Giants. This is the opener of a three-game series at Oracle Park with the Red Sox looking to stay red hot as they head to the West Coast.
Both of these teams are playing in very competitive divisions and will need to string together some wins if they want to make the postseason. Here are my best free Red Sox vs. Giants MLB picks and predictions for July 29.
Red Sox vs Giants odds
Red Sox vs Giants predictions
Logan Webb is coming off an awful performance against the Nationals last Saturday, surrendering six runs before being chased from the mound midway through the second inning. That was easily the worst outing of the year for Webb, who has a 3.48 ERA with a 1.12 WHIP through 21 starts. Despite that abbreviated outing versus Washington, Webb still ranks third in the majors in innings pitched with 134 1/3.
The Red Sox have been productive at the plate but their barrel rate ranks just 23rd in the majors while their hard hit rate ranks 19th, which means regression should be on the horizon. They also hit far worse away from home, where they have an OPS of .706 and average 4.43 runs per game, compared to Fenway, where they have an OPS of .830 with 5.64 runs/game.
Webb has been dealing at home, pitching to a 2.02 ERA with a 1.03 WHIP in nine starts at Oracle Park.
The O/U on Webb's outs today is set at 17.5, which seems mispriced when you consider that he has gone above that number in 16 of his last 19 starts (84.2%). Although the Over 17.5 outs is juiced to -165 for an implied probability of 62.3%, it's still worth a play given how often he has hit this prop.
My best bet: Logan Webb Over 17.5 outs (-165)
Red Sox vs Giants same-game parlay
Webb Over 17.5 outs (-180)
Alex Verdugo Under 1.5 total bases (-180)
Patrick Bailey Under 1.5 total bases (-180)
Alex Verdugo is slugging .508 at home this season but that number plummets to .333 away from Fenway. He's also mired in a slump, going hitless in his last five games and slugging just .237 in 15 games this month.
San Fran's Patrick Bailey has also been awful at the plate in July, slashing .159/.209/.206 in 18 games this month with three doubles and no home runs.
All these plays are individually juiced to -180 at bet365, but they all have an extremely high chance of hitting and the parlay pays out at a tidy +250.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Red Sox vs Giants moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Giants are coming off a two-game series sweep against the lowly A's, where they were -250 favorites on Tuesday and -215 chalk on Wednesday. Those wins allowed them to snap a six-game skid and improved their record to 56-47 on the season. That gives them a slightly better record than the 55-47 Red Sox but Boston has been the hotter team lately. The BoSox have won 15 of their last 19 games and are fresh off back-to-back victories as underdogs against the Braves.
While the Red Sox have been plating more runs at home, the Giants have been struggling to score in front of their home fans. They average just 4.08 runs/game at home while they plate 4.96 in away contests.
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Trend to know
The Boston Red Sox have hit the first five innings team total Under in 21 of their last 34 away games (+7.25 Units / 18% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Giants
Red Sox vs Giants game info
| Location: | Oracle Park, San Francisco, CA |
| Date: | Friday, July 28, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 10:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NESN, NBCSBA |
Starting pitchers
Kutter Crawford (4-5, 4.04 ERA): The sophomore struggled in his first start of the season and was soon sent to the bullpen but he worked his way back into a starting role after injuries sidelined several Red Sox hurlers. Since returning to the rotation at the beginning of June, he has pitched to a 4.43 ERA with a 1.23 WHIP in nine starts.
Logan Webb (8-8, 3.48 ERA): Despite coming off an ugly performance, the 26-year-old has still been pitching well this season. His expected ERA sits at 3.52 despite his hard-hit rate and barrel rate ranking in the bottom 15th percentile. Webb had a breakout season in 2021, pitching to a 3.03 ERA in 148 1/3 innings and he was even better last year, posting a 2.90 ERA through 192 1/3 innings.
