Red Sox vs Phillies Predictions, Picks, Odds: Phillies Falter on Mound

The surging Boston Red Sox put their seven-game win streak on the line tonight in the second game of their series against the Philadelphia Phillies.

The Red Sox jumped out to an early lead last night on the way to a 5-3 win in the series opener, backed by a vintage performance from starter Chris Sale, who piled up 10 strikeouts.

That loss stretched the Phillies’ recent skid to five games and leaves them well adrift of the NL East-leading Atlanta Braves. Tonight, Philadelphia gives the ball to left-hander Bailey Falter, who’s still looking for his first win of the year.

Check out our free MLB picks and predictions for Red Sox vs Phillies on May 6.

Red Sox vs Phillies odds

Red Sox vs Phillies predictions

This Boston offense has been on fire lately, especially since the calendar flipped to May. The Red Sox swept their four-game home series against the Toronto Blue Jays this week, while scoring 32 runs — and I see that hot streak continuing here against the Phillies.

It’s not just one or two hitters in a rhythm for the visitors either. In Thursday’s 11-5 win over the Blue Jays, Masataka Yoshida, Justin Turner, Rafael Devers, and Jarren Duran all had three-hit outings. Last night, it was the bottom half of the line-up that delivered the key RBIs.

The Red Sox’s heavy dose of left-handed hitters should provide an edge against lefty Bailey Falter, who’s allowing a .389 average against left-handers in 2023, with seven hits and a HR.

Falter only lasted 4.1 innings in his last start against the Houston Astros, and the visitors have done lots of early damage during the current win streak. They led 3-0 yesterday in the top of the third inning and jumped in front of Toronto in three of the four games in that series.

Boston has scored five or more runs in its last seven contests, and I’m taking these odds for another productive night at the plate here.

My best bet: Red Sox Over 4.5 runs (-115 at bet365)

Red Sox vs Phillies moneyline analysis

The Phillies get the favorites tag tonight despite Boston’s elite stretch of baseball. While that’s a little surprising, Red Sox starter Corey Kluber could be the reason. He’s still searching for his best stuff and his ERA has bumped up to 6.44 so far in 2023. Only 59 of his 104 pitches were called strikes in his outing against Toronto on Monday.

That presents an opening for this Philadelphia line-up, particularly with talisman Bryce Harper returning yesterday after a lengthy layoff following Tommy John surgery. Harper made an immediate impact at the plate with a single and a run. Nick Castellanos has a whopping 48 at-bats against Kluber, and Kyle Schwarber has four hits off the 37-year-old righty.

Still, picking the Phillies means riding with Falter, who’s had his own struggles this season (5.01 ERA) — and the Red Sox have had the edge recently in this matchup, winning four of the last five meetings in Philadelphia. 

Red Sox vs Phillies Over/Under analysis

As I’ve covered above, the Red Sox offense is humming and I like the visitors to make hay at the plate again tonight, even with rookie Yoshida (riding a 15-game hit streak) set for a rest day here after taking a pitch on the knee last night.

The numbers largely trend towards a high-scoring game. A 9.5-run line makes sense here. The Over is 4-0-1 in Boston’s last five games, and it’s 3-0-1 in the Phillies’ last four contests. The Over has also cashed in for Kluber’s last four starts when the opponent has allowed five or more runs in their prior game, as the Phillies did last night.

Ultimately, this is hardly a marquee pitching battle. Neither pitcher has really settled yet this season, and I expect plenty of base-runners tonight.

Red Sox vs Phillies game info

Red Sox vs Phillies betting preview

Starting pitchers

Corey Kluber (1-4, 6.44 ERA): The veteran right-hander has had a bumpy start to 2023 and lasted 5.1 innings on Monday against the Blue Jays, giving up three runs on five hits. Run support from an in-form Red Sox line-up is at least in his favor.

Bailey Falter (0-5, 5.01 ERA): Falter has been roughed up at times this year and Boston’s left-handers will present a major challenge. The 26-year-old leans heavily on his four-seam fastball, and there should be some mystery given how little the Red Sox have seen of him.

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The Over is 4-0-1 in Boston’s last five games after scoring five or more runs in their prior outing. Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Phillies

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