The Boston Red Sox aim for their seventh win in a row as they take on the Minnesota Twins on Wednesday. The BoSox have won the first two contests in this four-game series at Target Field, but it won't be easy for them to beat the Twins and ace Sonny Gray today.
MLB betting lines opened with the Twins as -130 home favorites for tonight's showdown with the Over/Under at 8.5. Here are my best free Red Sox vs. Twins MLB picks and predictions for June 21.
Red Sox vs Twins odds
Red Sox vs Twins predictions
Sonny Gray looked incredible at the start of the season, pitching to a 0.77 ERA with a 1.06 WHIP in six starts in April. Since the start of May, those numbers have dipped to a 3.73 ERA with a 1.46 WHIP across eight starts, which is much more in line with his season-long expected ERA of 3.70.
The Red Sox respond with Garrett Whitlock, who has been inconsistent in his first year as a full-time starter but is coming off back-to-back quality outings. He limited the Rockies to a pair of earned runs in seven innings last Wednesday, and held the Yankees to one earned run in 6 1/3 innings the previous week.
At this dish, Boston has a clear advantage. Anchored by power-hitting third baseman Rafael Devers and former Japanese League star and AL Rookie of the Year odds frontrunner Masataka Yoshida, the Red Sox are fourth in the majors with an OPS of .771. Meanwhile, the Twins are 22nd in OPS (.709), with that number dropping to .673 this month.
With regression setting in for Gray, the pitching advantage for the Twins isn't as pronounced as it might appear at first glance. With the BoSox much more dangerous at the plate and in better form at the moment, I'll back them on the moneyline as slim underdogs.
My best bet: Red Sox moneyline (+114 at Pinnacle)
Red Sox vs Twins same-game parlay
Red Sox moneyline
No run first inning
Justin Turner Over 0.5 hits
While I'm betting the Red Sox to win, I don't think they get to Gray in the first inning. After all, they rank a modest 18th in the majors at scoring in the first inning (28.4%), while Gray has an incredible 0.64 ERA with a .106 OBA in the opening frame.
Gray tends to get hit hard between the fourth and sixth innings, and I have a feeling that Justin Turner will be one of the sluggers to take advantage of that. Turner has picked up a hit in nine of his last 10 games and is batting .425 over that span.
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Red Sox vs Twins moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The moneyline odds for this game have stayed relatively steady with the Twins sitting at approximately -130 for most of the day, while the Red Sox are near +110.
The Red Sox beat the Twins 10-4 as +111 underdogs last night after defeating them 9-3 as +122 pups in the first game of this series. That gives the Red Sox six wins in a row and improves their record to 39-35, which is impressive when you consider the level of competition in the AL East.
The Twins are 36-38, which is good enough for first place in a much weaker AL Central. They've lost five of their last six contests, with all of those contests coming by multiple runs.
The total has also seen minimal movement and is at 8.5, although it was juiced more heavily towards the Under earlier in the day, suggesting that more money has come in on the Over.
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Trend to know
The Twins are 1-5 in their last six games at home. Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Twins
Red Sox vs Twins game info
| Location: | Target Field, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date: | Wednesday, June 21, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NESN, BSNO |
Starting pitchers
Garrett Whitlock (4-2, 4.38 ERA): Whitlock has posted a 1.23 WHIP with an OBA of .273 through seven starts while battling through an elbow injury. He came out of the bullpen for 46 games as a rookie in 2021 before having a hybrid starter/reliever role last year, when he pitched to a 3.45 ERA with a 1.02 WHIP in 78 1/3 innings.
Sonny Gray (4-1, 2.37 ERA): Gray looked incredible at the start of the season but has been much more hittable lately while struggling with his command. In his last six starts, he has racked up just 23 strikeouts while walking 14 batters. The two-time All-Star has a deep arsenal and added a cutter to it this year, but his best offerings remain his two-seamer and sweeper.
