The New York Yankees will try to snap a six-game losing streak when they host the Boston Red Sox in the middle game of a three-game series on Saturday afternoon.
The Red Sox (64-58) took Friday’s series opener by an 8-3 final, behind a three-run home run from Masataka Yoshida. The Yankees (60-62) are now in last place in the AL East and sit seven games out of the wild card with just 40 games left to play.
If there’s one man who might be able to turn things around for New York, it’s Saturday’s starting pitcher Gerrit Cole. We’ll break down how he’ll impact today’s game in our free MLB picks and predictions for Red Sox vs. Yankees on August 19.
Red Sox vs Yankees odds
Red Sox vs Yankees predictions
In a season of stunning disappointment for the Yankees, Gerrit Cole has been one of the few bright spots in the Bronx. The veteran righty is 10-3 with a sterling 2.76 ERA, and the Yankees have managed to go 16-9 in his 25 starts. While New York is just 2-4 in his last six outings, you can hardly blame Cole, who has given up more than two runs just once in that span.
Cole has also had success against the Red Sox this season, allowing just two runs on seven hits over six innings to Boston in their lone meeting on June 9. Perhaps unsurprisingly, New York's ace took the loss in that game, as the Yankees could only muster two runs of support in a 3-2 loss.
That highlights the Yankees' real problem this year. What was expected to be a deep and powerful lineup has managed to score just 4.24 runs per game, ranking 23rd in the majors. New York held out hopes that things would turn around once Aaron Judge returned to the lineup from a toe injury. But the Yankees are just 6-14 since he rejoined the lineup, and have scored an anemic 3.3 runs per game over their last 10 contests, including just six runs total in their last four.
The Yankees might feel like they have some chance of success against Boston starter Kutter Crawford, who is just 5-5 with a 4.48 ERA in his 15 starts this season. However, Crawford has improved as the season has worn on, posting a 3.47 ERA over his last 10 starts, a span during which opposing batters are hitting just .236 off the righty.
Between Cole’s continued dominance and the Yankees' tepid offensive output, it’s hard to see where many runs are going to come from. Perhaps Cole can lead New York to a desperately-needed victory, or maybe the Yankees offense will let him down again. Either way, I expect a low-scoring affair this afternoon, and I’m backing the Under as a result.
My best bet: Under 8.5 (-105 at DraftKings)
Red Sox vs Yankees same-game parlay
Under 8.5 (-110)
Yankees moneyline (-165)
Gerrit Cole 6+ strikeouts (-230)
For today’s same-game parlay, I’m going to stick with the Under as I don’t expect either team to put up many runs. Cole is a big part of that prediction, so I’m going to count on him to have an excellent game for the rest of this SGP.
First, I’m taking the Yankees on the moneyline. Yes, they’ve lost six straight, but they are deserving favorites at home with Cole on the mound. New York’s recent struggles have made the moneyline odds more reasonable than they should be, making this a strong addition to our parlay.
Finally, let’s back Cole to record at least six strikeouts in this game. Cole has struck out six or more batters in eight of his last 12 starts, including the last time he faced Boston back on June 9.
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Red Sox vs Yankees moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Yankees opened as a -156 favorite on the moneyline. That number has shortened at most sites, with New York -165 being closer to the consensus MLB odds across the industry as of early Saturday. You can find as good as -155 on the Yankees by shopping around, or take the Red Sox at +142 as an underdog.
New York has been a terrible disappointment this season, and that has translated to the betting world, where it has lost over eight units on the moneyline in 2023. The Red Sox have made a slight profit for bettors, being up just under three units for the year.
While it may seem dangerous to bet on a Yankees team that has dropped six straight and 24 of its last 36 games overall, I have faith in Cole to be the one to break this streak. New York deserves to be a big favorite in this matchup, regardless of its recent run. I’m leaning toward the Yankees on the moneyline today.
The total for this afternoon’s game opened at a flat eight runs. However, bettors have pushed that up to 8.5 at nearly all books. In many cases, the Under is the favorite at that number, though you can still get -105 at DraftKings this morning. Meanwhile, you can find +100 on the Over at other numbers if you expect a higher-scoring affair.
The Red Sox have played dead even to the total this year, going exactly 60-60 O/U on the season. The Yankees have trended lower, with the Under posting a 62-55 record in New York’s games during the 2023 season.
The 8.5 total seems too high to me given the factors I’ve outlined above. Cole continues to be one of the few reliable players on the Yankees, and I can’t trust the New York lineup to get anything done off of Crawford, who has turned into a solid five-inning starter for the Red Sox down the stretch. The Under is the play this afternoon.
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Trend to know
The Under is 7-1 in Boston’s last eight games overall. Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Yankees
Red Sox vs Yankees game info
| Location: | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date: | Saturday, August 19, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 1:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FS1 |
Starting pitchers
Kutter Crawford (5-6, 3.80 ERA): The Red Sox have used Crawford in a mix of starting and relieving roles this season, and that has finally seemed to translate into major league success for the 27-year-old. While Crawford has been far more effective as a reliever overall — he has posted a 1.66 ERA in eight bullpen appearances this year — he has improved dramatically as a starter as the season has worn on. His biggest weakness has been a propensity to give up the long ball, as he has allowed 1.4 home runs per nine innings.
Gerrit Cole (10-3, 2.76 ERA): In a seemingly lost season for the Yankees, Cole has once again shined. The 32-year-old is near the American League lead in most pitching categories and has been able to go deep into games as well, leading the AL with 156 1/3 innings pitched on the year. Despite his team’s failures, Cole is the overwhelming favorite to win the AL Cy Young Award for the first time in his career. Last time out, Cole allowed two runs on six hits over six innings against the Miami Marlins on August 13.
