Reds vs Brewers Picks and Predictions: Cincinnati Has Milwaukee Seeing Red

While the Cincinnati Reds are firmly out of the playoff picture, the Milwaukee Brewers are fighting for NL Central supremacy — currently tied for the division lead with the Cardinals. 

Milwaukee came into the series sporting a four-game losing streak but successfully snapped that streak last night with a convincing 5-1 win. 

Can the Brewers turn that win into a larger playoff race push or will the Reds play spoiler and tie up the series heading into Sunday's finale?

Continue reading for free MLB picks for the Reds vs. Brewers matchup on Saturday, August 6.

Reds vs Brewers odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Brewers opened as favorites in the -195 range and have moved a bit down, closer to the -185 range on average. The total opened at 8.0, and some books currently show juice on Under 8.0 while some books have moved to a 7.5 with juice favoring the Over.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Reds vs Brewers predictions

• Prediction: Reds ML (+160)
• Prediction: Under 8 (-110)
• Best bet: Reds ML (+160)

Picks made on 8/6/2022 at 10:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Reds vs Brewers game info

• Location: American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI
• Date: Saturday, August 6, 2022
• First pitch: 7:15 p.m. ET
• TV: FOX

Reds vs Brewers betting preview

Starting pitchers

Nick Lodolo (3-3, 4.23 ERA): Lodolo has put together a respectable rookie campaign, pitching to a 4.23 ERA and striking out an absurd 12.7 batters per nine innings in his eight starts thus far. The 24-year-old was one of baseball's top prospects prior to making the jump, and after some rocky starts, Lodolo has allowed just nine hits and one earned run across his last two starts in 12 innings of work, striking out 16 in the process.

Aaron Ashby (2-9, 4.13 ERA): Ashby generated quite a bit of buzz during his rookie year last year. The Brewers' eighth-ranked prospect was initially called up in late June and had a brutal first outing (4 ER in 2-3 IP) prior to heading back to the minors. When he was called back up amid the Brewers' playoff push, he proceeded to pitch to a 1.78 ERA in September and October across 11 appearances before falling apart in his final appearances.

He has had an up and down 2022 campaign but is currently on a five-game stretch in which he has pitched to a 2.86 ERA.

Weather

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Key injuries

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Betting trend to know

The Reds have gone 10-3 to the Under in their last 13, including the last five. Find more MLB betting trends for Reds vs. Brewers

Reds vs Brewers picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

The Milwaukee Brewers have had a head-scratching recent weeks. At the trade deadline, the team opted to trade away cornerstone closer Josh Hader away (and to the Padres, a team they are competing against in the National League, no less) despite possessing a NL Central lead at the time. They then proceeded to lose four straight, including a three-game sweep against the lowly Pirates. 

Last night, they opened a three-game set against fellow NL Central bottom dwellers, the 

Cincinnati Reds, and won the opening game 5-1. Eric Lauer contributed seven strong innings, allowing just six hits and one earned run. Tyrone Taylor and Rowdy Tellez each chipped in multi-run home runs that accounted for all five of the Brewers' runs.

Tonight, they will look to build on that fortune reversal and keep the playoff train on the track, as they are tied with the St. Louis Cardinals heading into Saturday. The Cardinals operated like a contender and on the opposite end of the spectrum of the Brewers at the trade deadline, picking up the likes of Jordan Montgomery, Jose Quintana, and Chris Stratton. 

On Saturday night in front of their home crowd and a national television audience, Milwaukee will send out Aaron Ashby in hopes of keeping pace with St. Louis. Ashby’s in his first full MLB season after an up-and-down 2021.

The 2022 season has seen similar ups and downs for Ashby. Through May, Ashby was largely lights out with just one bad appearance (6 ER in 4 IP) across the first two months, and held a 2.70 ERA at the time. He then allowed 18 earned runs in his next four appearances (8.68 ERA), ballooning his ERA to 4.60. He has returned to form since, pitching to a 2.86 ERA in his five starts since.

Across from him tonight is Nick Lodolo, one of baseball's finer prospects who recently made his return to the majors. Lodolo appeared in three games back in April but allowed nine runs in 14 2-3 innings of work (5.52 ERA) prior to being sent back down. He was called back up at the start of July and had iffy results once again but has seemingly turned things around as of late.

Lodolo is coming off of a six inning appearance in which he allowed just four hits, two walks, and one earned run against the red hot Orioles while striking out seven in the process. And he had a shutout six inning performance against the Marlins in the start prior to that, allowing just five hits and two walks and striking out nine.

Despite his mixed bag of results, there has been one thing Lodolo has been otherworldly at: getting batters to miss. His strikeout rate ranks in the 87th percentile already and his whiff rate ranks in the 86th. In fact, his current 12.7 strikeouts per nine innings rate would firmly rank best in the majors if he met the requisite innings pitched qualifier.

The gap between Lodolo and Ashby is nowhere near large enough to justify the massive odds discrepancy, and the Reds are a solid value at these prices.

Prediction: Reds moneyline (+160 at WynnBet)

Over/Under analysis

Milwaukee sports the third-best Overs record in the league at 54-47-5 (53.5%) while Cincinnati sports the eighth-best record at 54-50-1 (51.9%). The Brewers have the second-best Overs record in home games (25-21-1, 54.4%).

In terms of recent form, the two have gone in opposite directions as of late. The Brewers have gone 10-4 to the Over in their last 14 while the Reds have gone 10-3 to the Under in their last 13, including five straight to the Under heading into tonight.

With Ashby and Lodolo's recent form in mind, it may be best to look towards the Under. And despite the Reds going 4-2 in their last six, they have managed to score more than three runs just once during that stretch.

With batters on both sides having a combined four plate appearances against opposing starters heading into tonight, there is a heightened level of unfamiliarity that will dominate the opening innings of this game as batters get their first looks at the two.

Prediction: Under 8 (-110 at Caesars)

Best bet

The Brewers and Reds have entirely different trajectories. Milwaukee, tied for the NL Central lead, is looking to make the best of a roster that has repeatedly flirted with a World Series appearance in recent years.

The Reds, on the other hand, are firmly amid a rebuild and are looking to build a collection of prospects that can help them be the next small market team to emerge as a contender. 

While Lodolo's rookie campaign has had its fair shares of ups and downs thus far, his last two starts suggest he is amid one of those ups. 

With odds having him and his Reds as massive underdogs there's no reason to be on the opposite side, and his elite strikeout metrics should play favorably against a Milwaukee team that struggles with swings-and-misses rather notably from time to time.

Pick: Reds moneyline (+160 at WynnBet)

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