Following yesterday's holiday celebrations, foggy-headed bettors will be treated to an afternoon game between the Colorado Rockies and Houston Astros today at 2 p.m. ET as the home side comes in as a heavy -230 favorite and have a cupcake matchup vs. Colorado starter Chase Anderson.
The Colorado pitcher has allowed 28 earned runs over his last 19 innings and could give way to a bullpen missing some middle relievers. With JP France also missing fewer bats and pitching above his projected numbers, could bettors expect some runs today at Minute Maid Park?
Find out where my best bets lie in our MLB picks and predictions for Rockies vs. Astros for Wednesday, July 5.
Rockies vs Astros odds
Rockies vs Astros predictions
Chase Anderson has allowed at least three earned runs in five straight starts where he owns a 13.26 ERA thanks to 28 earned runs over 19 innings. With Colorado pitchers, splits are always important and add context, but Anderson has fared even worse away from Coors Field this year over four of his 10 starts with a 7.04 road ERA compared to a 6.23 ERA at home.
The right-hander has been getting smashed of late and has another tough matchup vs. an Astros offense that ranks sixth in WAR over the last 30 days. Houston is also 6-1 SU in its last seven while scoring 52 total runs.
Jose Altuve was a late scratch in yesterday’s series opener with an oblique injury and he could sit out again today. However, the rest of this lineup is still capable of chasing Chase early as Kyle Tucker has a 1.428 OPS over the last seven days, Chas McCormick is hitting .340 over his last 15 games, and Corey Julks is slashing .429/.484/.500 over his last seven games. Hell, even Jose Abreu has found his power stroke with a 1.085 OPS and two home runs over his last seven games.
THE BAT is projecting 3.39 earned runs today for the Colorado starter and the third-worst projected ERA of the day at 6.11. Anderson has not recorded 12 outs in three straight starts and I don’t see him improving on his recent numbers today vs. a hot lineup. His Over 5.5 hits allowed at +105 and Over 1.5 walks at -130 also project well.
My best bet: Chase Anderson Over 2.5 earned runs (-135 at Betway)
Rockies vs Astros same-game parlay
Kyle Tucker Over 1.5 total bases (+125)
Jose Abreu Over 0.5 RBI (+155)
Corey Julks Over 1.5 total bases (+145)
Anderson's pitching props went OTB at bet365 at the time of writing but I'd still add it to this parlay when it reopens. I'm happy to stack Houston hitters today in a game I think they can score seven-plus runs without needing an at-bat in the ninth inning.
Abreu is hitting fourth and will have opportunities to plate runs with Tucker hitting in front of him and riding an 11-game hitting streak where he is batting .409. Julks has also provided plenty of talent later in the order and is coming off a four-hit performance yesterday. He has recorded a multi-hit game in five of his last 11 and has collected two or more bases in six of those.
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Rockies vs Astros moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Astros opened as -245 favorites after closing as -180 favorites yesterday in a similar pitching matchup. Now bettors are backing the Rockies (based on price) as today’s moneyline has moved from -245 to as long as -220 in some places.
Altuve was a late scratch yesterday and his availability is questionable. The leadoff man is worth a few points but this Houston offense can handle his absence as the middle of the order is heating up.
With Anderson on the mound for the dogs, the Rockies will have to score if they want to win and despite how weak of an offense it is away from Coors, it has a decent matchup in J.P. France.
France allows a lot of walks and home runs while striking out well under a batter per inning. His swinging strike rate has also been on the decline over his last five starts as batters are making adjustments to the fastball/cutter pitcher. Batters are hitting well over .300 vs. those combined offerings which make up 63% of his pitches. His walk rate should also be on the rise as he was roughly a 12% BB% pitcher at Triple-A while that mark sits at around 8% through 10 MLB starts.
The Colorado team total is at 3.5 which might be the more manageable bet to back the Rockies because they aren’t winning 4-2 with Anderson on the bump today.
Pinnacle opened this total at 9, hit 8.5, and then got bet back up to 9. This could be a stat-padding day for the Houston offense and if France continues to walk and give up home runs, bettors might need just three Colorado runs to get this Over 9 across the line.
The Rockies have two middle relievers likely unavailable today which could hurt as Anderson does not project to get deep while the Astros bullpen is taxed too after some heavy usage vs. the Rangers. All of that favors the Over, which I’m also playing at 9.
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Trend to know
The Over is 9-2 in the Rockies’ last 11 games vs. a right-handed starter. Find more MLB betting trends for Rockies vs. Astros
Rockies vs Astros game info
| Location: | Minute Maid Park, Houston, TX |
| Date: | Wednesday, July 5, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 2:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MLB Network |
Starting pitchers
Chase Anderson (0-3, 7.30 ERA): Anderson is making his 12th start of the season and has a 34:16 K/BB rate over 54 2/3 innings of work with a hefty 19.2% HR/FB%. He gets the majority of his outs in the air and had 11 flyball outs to zero groundballs in his last start. It hasn’t been pretty of late as the right-hander has allowed 22 earned runs over his last three starts (9 1/3 IP). The Rockies are 4-6 SU when he starts and THE BAT is projecting 88 pitches, 15 outs, 3.3 strikeouts, and 3.39 earned runs.
J.P. France (3-3, 3.13 ERA): France has made 10 starts in his rookie season and carries a 44:20 K/B rate over 60 1/3 innings of work with a 13.4% HR/FB rate despite being a near-50/50 GB/FB pitcher. His swinging strike rate has dropped off since his first month in the big leagues. The Astros are 4-6 SU when he starts and THE BAT projects 100 pitches, 17.9 outs, 5.46 strikeouts, and 2.82 earned runs.
