The New York Yankees will host the Kansas City Royals to kick off their American League Division Series Saturday night from the Bronx.
We’re targeting our favorite MLB player props for this matchup, and no surprise, the two main candidates for AL MVP are front and center in my Royals vs. Yankees predictions.
Check out these free MLB picks for October 5 below.
Royals vs Yankees ALDS Game 1 props
- Aaron Judge 2+ total bases (+100 at DraftKings)
- Bobby Witt Jr. 1+ RBI (+185 at DraftKings)
- Gerrit Cole Over 17.5 outs recorded (-140 at DraftKings)
Picks made on 10-5 at 8:00 a.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
Royals vs Yankees props
Prop bet #1: Aaron Judge 2+ total bases
Before sitting out the New York Yankees' regular-season finale, Aaron Judge went yard in five of his last six games, getting him to 58 homers on the season. He closed out the year grabbing at least two total bases in nine of the last 13 games he played.
Judge will now square off with Kansas City Royals starter Michael Wacha, and it’s been completely one-sided, with the Yankees’ slugger going 1-for-18 in his career vs the righty.
However, it’s the first time they meet in 2024, and Judge has been mashing right-handed pitching all year (.326, 71 extra base hits), and he’s been great at Yankee Stadium (.328, 46 extra base hits).
Competing for a trip to the ALCS, look for New York’s leading man to carry on his hot streak from the end of the regular season to the playoffs.
Prop bet #2: Bobby Witt Jr 1+ RBI
While Judge & Co. were watching the drama unfold, Bobby Witt Jr. was playing difference maker as the Royals wiped out the Baltimore Orioles in two straight in the Wild Card round.
Witt’s numbers weren’t earth shattering — he went 3-for-9 with an RBI in each game — until you consider KC put up three runs in the entire series to advance.
Witt hasn’t blinked against the Yankees, hitting .367 against them this season, including four doubles and four RBI. He’s hit safely in 10 of his last 11 games overall.
He has a .333 average vs New York starter Gerrit Cole, but there’s not a huge sample size to glean from, as Witt has just six total at-bats against him in his career.
Still, as the major run-maker against the Orioles, Witt will be tasked with keeping the Royals’ offense humming in the ALDS.
Prop bet #3: Gerrit Cole Over 17.5 outs recorded
We’re about to find out if Cole’s late start to this year due to an elbow injury will pay dividends come the postseason.
The reigning AL Cy Young winner was shelved till mid-June, and he threw only 95 innings in 17 starts. Cole closed the year with a 5-3 record in the last eight outings, and he’s looking more and more like his dominant self.
He’s also back to eating up innings, and that’s where our betting eyes land: the 17.5 outs recorded line. That’s completing six innings of work.
While he only reached six innings pitched in two of his first nine starts, Cole has gone at least six in six of his last eight starts. That includes a complete game, two-hitter over the A’s in his second-to-last start of the regular season.
Cole will get his first look at KC this year, but he’s pitched into the sixth in his last four starts against the Royals in the 2020s.
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