Royals vs Yankees ALDS Game 2 Prop Bets: Soto Slugs Away

Prop bet #1: Cole Ragans Over 2.5 Walks Allowed

+105 at DraftKings

The first prop we’ll go with here appears to be a bit scary on the surface because we rarely see a pitcher’s walks market set at 2.5. That goes doubly for a pitcher who’s been one of the best in the game, too, but Cole Ragans has done well to earn this line set by oddsmakers.

The Kansas City Royals left-hander has walked two or more batters in six of his last seven starts, including three or more in his final three outings of the regular season. That brought his total up to a whopping 10 over his last 19 innings of work.

Yes, he reeled in his control issues with a dominant showing against Baltimore in the Wild Card Series but the Orioles aren’t walking nearly as often as the New York Yankees.

One of the most patient teams in all of baseball, New York has grown even more hesitant to swing against lefties where it’s drawn a walk in over 12% of plate appearances this season. It’s largely due to the team’s ineffectiveness against southpaws, and I like that trend to continue — especially after walking eight times in Game 1 and drawing three the last time they saw Ragans a few weeks ago.

A quick hook could hurt us here, but with five Royals relievers working in Game 1 and Ragans eating a ton of innings this year, I’d bet on Kansas City giving him a long leash. It only took four innings for Michael Wacha to walk three Yankees in Game 1, however, and this seems to be a wonderful market to attack in our MLB picks.

Prop bet #2: Juan Soto Over 1.5 H+R+RBI

-115 at DraftKings

This line just doesn’t make any sense to me. While I’m interested in all sorts of Juan Soto props here — from him recording a run or RBI to his total bases — getting the chance to bet on just two of those to hit at this price is a no-brainer.

Soto went 3-for-5 in Game 1, and he's arguably been the Yankees’ greatest weapon against lefties this season. He’s recorded a .326 expected batting average vs. LHP since the start of August and has a .348 xBA with runners in scoring position — a situation he should find himself in with Gleyber Torres getting himself on base a ton since moving into the leadoff spot and Alex Verdugo beginning to hat up at the bottom of the order.

Soto recorded an RBI in three of his final five games and ranks second among all hitters in RBI against left-handers this season, adding a solo homer in three career plate appearances against Ragans to boot. He’s scored four runs over that span and hit .296 with eight runs and five RBIs in 33 plate appearances across his final seven regular season games.

Prop bet #3: Salvador Perez Over 1.5 Total Bases

+129 at Caesars

Finally, we’ll throw a bone to the batter-versus-pitcher lovers out there.

Salvador Perez knows Carlos Rodon incredibly well — mostly from the southpaw's time with the White Sox — going 12-for-26 against the veteran in his career with a double and three homers, posting a.410 xBA and .782 expected slugging percentage.

Over the final month of the season, Perez owned a .248 xBA to rate as the Royals’ third-best option in this split as the team struggled to create offense down the stretch.

With a 3-for-12 start to the postseason — which could easily be a bit beefier on account of his .346 xBA in those at-bats — Perez should have the chance to attack Rodon early and could face one of New York’s struggling lefties out of the bullpen considering he’s hitting behind Vinnie Pasquantino in the order with MJ Melendez just two spots below him.

I just don't agree with oddsmakers on pricing Perez in such a spot, and if you’re looking for a safer bet, I see plenty of implied value in the veteran backstop to simply come up with one hit here at around -220 odds.