The Kansas City Royals enter play against the New York Yankees red-hot, having won four consecutive games — each against playoff-bound AL teams.
Lights-out pitching has been their bread and butter during the winning streak but my Royals vs. Yankees predictions don’t see Brady Singer continuing that trend in the Bronx.
Let’s take a closer look with my Monday, September 9 MLB picks.
Royals vs Yankees prediction
My best bet
Brady Singer Under 16.5 outs (-105 at DraftKings)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Kansas City Royals right-hander Brady Singer has not performed nearly as well on the road as he has at home this season. He’s recorded 17 outs or more in only five of 13 away starts, averaging 15.8 per game. That’s a far cry from the 18 he’s averaged in Kansas City.
Of the five road games Singer did give the Royals real length, three came against Bottom-5 offenses in xwOBA against right-handed pitching. Those were the Colorado Rockies, Cincinnati Reds, and Chicago White Sox — two of which have already been eliminated from postseason contention while the other, the Reds, remains a major long shot.
The New York Yankees are a completely different animal. Even though they’ve been inconsistent at times, the Aaron Judge and Juan Soto-led offense has posted the league’s highest xwOBA vs. right-handed pitchers this season.
They’ve been especially dangerous at home, where they lead the league in walk percentage, OPS, and barrel rate.
New York’s patient approach drives up pitch counts and puts them in positions to get on base consistently, either via walk or swinging the bat.
There are a couple of added bonuses to fading Singer in this spot. For one, Singer is drastically worse vs. left-handed hitters, against whom he’s allowed a .300 batting average on the year compared to just .195 to righties.
The Yankees feature an abundance of left-handed bats, including Soto, Austin Wells, Jazz Chisholm Jr., and Anthony Rizzo.
Kansas City’s bullpen couldn’t be more well-rested. Over the past five days, the Royals used two relievers in three games, three relievers once, and had an off-day mixed in.
Given Singer’s struggles against left-handed bats, the Yankees’ potency vs. righties, and the rested ‘pen behind the hurler, there are plenty of reasons not to expect much length from him in this game
Aaron Judge pick: Stacking bases
My best bet
Aaron Judge Over 1.5 total bases (+100 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Judge is hitting .323 against right-handed pitchers this season and he’s amassed more extra-base hits than singles. He’s getting on base consistently and showing an unmatched level of power.
Judge has averaged 2.5 total bases per game on home soil and cleared this line more often than not. So while the results haven’t been there for Judge of late, the process suggests a breakout is just around the corner.
Judge has still put good wood on the ball while he's scuffled. He’s recorded a 71.4% hard-hit rate over the past 10 games, which leads the Yankees by more than 10%. His xwOBA of .352 is also miles above the league average of .309.
A superstar like Judge isn’t going to go quiet for very long and, again, the underlying numbers indicate Judge is hitting the ball a lot better than than the results show.
Royals vs Yankees same-game parlay (SGP)
Brady Singer Under 16.5
Aaron Judge Over 1.5 total bases
Yankees TT Over 1.5
The odds are stacked up against Singer pitching deep into this game for a variety of reasons. If Judge can take a chunk out of one good pitch along the way, the league’s best power hitter should be able to pile up a couple of bases. If Singer doesn’t flirt with six innings, chances are the Yankees have already plated the two necessary runs.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Royals vs Yankees odds
Royals vs Yankees live odds
Royals vs Yankees opening odds
- Moneyline: Kansas City +160 | New York -175
- Run line: Kansas City +1.5 (-134) | New York -1.5 (+120)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+100) | Under 8.5 (-112)
Royals vs Yankees moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- The Yankees opened as -175 favorites. We’ve seen a slight adjustment towards the Royals, with the Yankees now sitting -172 at Pinnacle.
- The price on the total has gone through some peaks and valleys but is essentially back where it started. The Under of 8.5 runs opened at -112 and is currently available at -111.
- The Yankees have covered the run line in 60 of their last 109 games (+13.60 Units / 10% ROI).
- The Yankees have scored at least one run in 65 of 68 home games. They’ve not been blanked at home since April.
Royals vs Yankees trend
Aaron Judge has averaged 3.7 total bases over his past 10 games on home soil. Find more MLB betting trends for Royals vs. Yankees.
Royals vs Yankees game info
| Location: | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date: | Monday, 9-9-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BSKC, YES |
| Royals starting pitcher: | Brady Singer (9-10, 3.35 ERA) |
| Yankees starting pitcher: | Carlos Rodon (14-9, 4.19 ERA) |
Royals vs Yankees latest injuries
Royals vs Yankees weather
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