It will be an emotional evening in the Empire State when the New York Yankees face off against the Kansas City Royals and pay tribute to the 9/11 victims.
The two teams split the first game of the series, and thus, a winner will be decided this evening. But several factors have my Royals vs. Yankees prediction favoring the home side.
Beyond any emotional motivation, see why I’m backing a Pinstripes win with my MLB picks for September 11th.
Royals vs Yankees prediction
My best bet
Yankees moneyline (-148 at FanDuel)
My analysis
I like the New York Yankees here, and part of that assertion is that I believe Yankees pitcher Luis Gil is “back.” He certainly looked it in his most recent start, and consequently, I’m playing this down to its opening number of -154.
After a short stint on the IR, Gil looked to have his mojo again in his first start. That’s when he struck out seven and gave up just one hit to the Chicago Cubs through six innings. That’s bad news for the Kansas City Royals in this matchup.
The Royals have avoided striking out a ton through much of the season. The only problem is that it never seemed sustainable, given how much they swing and sometimes chase pitches. It’s caught up with them recently, ranking ninth overall in the last month in strikeout rate and similarly over the last three games.
Maybe it’s a blimp in the season, but given that they were due for this type of regression, I’m not willing to say they come out of it too soon. I’m betting on them not doing that today, and that will play directly into Gil’s hands.
On the other hand, Cole Ragans will take the mound for Kansas City. Ragans has had a solid season and, most notably, just pitched a six-inning shutout against the Cleveland Guardians. But this matchup strikes me as problematic.
Ragans, a southpaw, will challenge the New York hitters with his fastball. He won’t shy away from it, even in the toughest of matchups, and throws it more than 40% of the time overall this season.
As I’ve documented heavily throughout this season, New York has some of the best fastball hitters in baseball at the top of its lineup. That holds particularly true for Juan Soto and Aaron Judge, some of the best fastball hitters in recent memory in the sport. Even better for them? Both have seen a slight boost against left-handed throwers this season.
In what figures to be a low-scoring game, I give the top of the order for the Yankees a significant advantage here. I like them to do enough damage to get the job done, especially with a pitcher in Gil who looks like the player we saw earlier this season.
Aaron Judge pick: Home sweet homer
My best bet
Aaron Judge home run (+270 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Judge breaks the slump tonight. The Yankees superstar has been in a slump, at least from a homer perspective. It’s the longest stretch of his career since 2019: 13 games. That’s got us thinking he’s simply due here.
That holds particularly true given the splits that we talked about above. Judge is now ninth in isolated power when facing left-handed pitchers. He gets a lefty who throws a fastball at a heavy clip tonight. What has Judge done against the fastball this season? He just posted the fifth-highest hard-hit rate and third-highest slugging rate against it among all qualified players in the sport. This fits tonight.
Royals vs Yankees same-game parlay (SGP)
Yankees moneyline
Aaron Judge to record an RBI
If you can wait until lineups are official, there might be some better RBI value in who bats fourth behind the big two. Either way, we like this. We’re pairing Judge to record an RBI with our best bet.
Judge has been in a bit of a slump lately, but given the matchup, you must like him in this spot. It’s a bit of a repeat of our best bet with Judge to go deep, but with this, you have the advantage of playing off Soto’s strengths against the fastball. It also helps that Ragans is unlikely to walk Judge, given how he’s historically pitched to big-time hitters this season.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Royals vs Yankees odds
Royals vs Yankees live odds
Royals vs Yankees opening odds
- Moneyline: Kansas City +125 | New York -150
- Run line: Kansas City +1.5 (-160) | New York -1.5 (+135)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+100) | Under 8.5 (-120)
Royals vs Yankees moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- Kansas City has struggled over the last 10 games, with a 5-5 record that has lost bettors a small amount of less than a half unit.
- New York has been worse during that stretch at 4-6 and has lost bettors much more money. Over the last 10 games, if you’ve bet the Yankees in all of them, you’re down nearly four units.
- This has been a fairly competitive series over the last ten games, with New York holding a slight 6-4 edge.
- Since opening, we’ve seen some slight action on the Royals, with the price moving about five cents toward its direction.
Royals vs Yankees trend
The Royals have covered the run line in 80 of their last 142 games (+9.39 Units / 5% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Royals vs. Yankees.
Royals vs Yankees game info
| Location: | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date: | Wednesday, 9-11-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BSKC, AmazonPV |
| Royals starting pitcher: | Cole Ragans (11-9, 3.33 ERA) |
| Yankees starting pitcher: | Luis Gil (13-6, 3.24 ERA) |
Royals vs Yankees latest injuries
Royals vs Yankees weather
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