It was a 1-2 SU day on Monday, as I have learned never to trust anything to do with the Colorado Rockies. Ever. On the road or at home, that team is awful. The Rockies have a minus-46 run differential through 16 games compared to the White Sox's minus-3. I cannot back anything to do with that offense, even at Coors. Let's bet on some pitchers on Jackie Robinson Day.
These are my favorite MLB player props for starting pitchers on Tuesday, April 15.
Josh's best starting pitcher props for April 15
Lodolo o17.5 outs (-125 at bet365)
Gausman o1.5 walks allowed (+130 at bet365)
Springs u16.5 outs (+125 at bet365)
Today's SP best bets
Mariners vs. Reds
The angle: Nick Lodolo has been one of the most efficient pitchers and can avoid some wind vs. heavy-K% Mariners.
The move: Nick Lodolo Over 17.5 outs (-125 at bet365)
There is a lot of wind at Great American Ballpark today, with 15-mph winds blowing out to left field, but Cincinnati Reds southpaw Nick Lodolo has been one of the best pitchers in baseball through three starts and can work his way around the gusts vs. the Seattle Mariners.
The lefty has gone 18+ outs in each of his starts and hasn't needed to throw more than 87 pitches. He has given up just 12 hits over those 18+ innings and could miss more bats than usual vs. Seattle. The Mariners are bad vs. left-handed pitching, striking out at a 30% clip on the season and ranking 22nd in wRC+ and 24th in wOBA. It might not be a good setting to pitch, but Lodolo is going to miss some bats today and continue getting deep into games.
Braves vs. Blue Jays
The angle: +130 is a big price for two walks vs. the Braves who took four vs. Toronto's starter yesterday.
The move: Kevin Gausman Over 1.5 walks allowed (+130 at bet365)
Kevin Gausman has an out total of 18.5, which is a good indicator that he is going to see a lot of batters. He was great in his last start, but the Atlanta Braves have a 10% walk rate on the year and will flirt with this Over. At a projected coin flip, the +130 odds are a good expected value.
Over his last two seasons, Gausman has walked 111 batters across 366 innings of work. Add in a tough matchup, and that's an easy path to see around two walks over 18+ outs. His 2.9 BB/9 rate at home since 2023 is also bigger than it is on the road.
The Toronto Blue Jays did not get much from Easton Lucas last night, so Gausman is expected to eat some innings. Considering he has allowed just nine hits in 19+ innings this season, Atlanta might need to take a patient approach at the dish tonight.
Athletics vs. White Sox
The angle: Jeffrey Springs is coming off a 103-pitch game and is battling near-20-mph winds blowing out.
The move: Jeffrey Springs Under 16.5 outs (+125 at bet365)
Jeffrey Springs never threw more than 87 pitches last year in just 33 innings of work thanks to injuries, and the last time he threw 100+ pitches — before his most recent outing — was June 24, 2022. Well, the Athletics have been riding him hard out of the gates, and he tosses 103 pitches in his last outing over six frames. He has an easy matchup today, but that is a lot of work for a guy who has never had a full workload, and I'm hitting the Under on 16.5 outs at plus money.
There are also 18-mph winds blowing out to left-center field, which won't help the flyball pitcher. He's walked seven batters and given up 15 hits over 15 innings and is a big risk to get shortleashed today or have lesser stuff. Just two starts ago, he needed 82 pitches for nine outs. I love this play. There is a 17.5 at DraftKings, but the 16.5 at plus money looks like the better route.
Not intended for use in MA.
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