It was a 1-2 SU day yesterday attacking pitcher props, but there are some plus-money starting pitcher props today that will have a great chance of making it a profitable slate on the diamond.
It's cold and windy still, and some of these 17.5-out markets are at prices we can't pass up.
These are my MLB pitcher props for Tuesday, April 8.
Josh's best starting pitcher props for April 8
Skubal u17.5 outs (+180 at bet365)
Lively o1.5 walks allowed (+105 at bet365)
Gillispie o2.5 earned runs (+110 at bet365)
Freeland u17.5 outs (-110 at BetMGM)
Holmes o5.5 strikeouts (-108 at FanDuel)
Today's SP best bets
Yankees vs. Tigers
The angle: Tarik Skubal does not have a long leash and his Under outs is paying big bucks
The move: Tarik Skubal Under 17.5 outs (+180 at bet365)
Tarik Skubal has yet to complete 18 outs over two starts. He is not a 100-pitch guy, and he has not been nearly as dominant out of the gates this year as he was in 2024.
He has a tough matchup vs. the New York Yankees in the cold mid-30 temperatures in Detroit with double-digit winds blowing out. The bullpen is fresh after some solid starting pitching yesterday, and THE BAT projects 92 pitches from the lefty and 17.5 outs. It will be sweaty, but +180 is a huge number that I will take in almost any circumstance with my MLB picks, especially with these winds and cold temperatures.
White Sox vs. Guardians
The angle: The mid-30s temperatures are not great for control, and Ben Lively has a vulnerable walk market at a good price
The move: Ben Lively Over 1.5 walks allowed (+105 at bet365)
With the mercury dropping below 40, it's tough for pitchers to get a great feel for the ball. Of the 16 starters pitching outside yesterday on the East Coast, only two kept their walks Under two. It's a really good angle to bet right while the temps are low and I will be betting both pitchers at 2+ walks on all the outdoor cold games until the temperatures get up to the mid-40s.
Ben Lively is the best price of all the pitchers in the early slate. The Cleveland Guardians righty issued two walks in his latest outing and only threw 86 pitches while cobbling together 13 outs. He could see more batters today, which means more chances for walks. Since last season, he has walked 0.32 batters per inning and should be able to get near six innings today. THH BAT is projecting 1.93 walks allowed, making it the best +EV Over walks allowed bet of the day.
Marlins vs. Mets
The angle: Connor Gillispie just saw the Mets and there are 20+ mph winds at Citi Field today.
The move: Connor Gillispie Over 2.5 earned runs (+110 at bet365)
There is always a hitting advantage when seeing a pitcher in back-to-back starts, and that's what the New York Mets have today at home. Miami Marlins starter Connor Gillispie went five innings, allowing just four hits and an earned run at home vs. the Mets on April 2. It's going to be different today.
There are 27-mph winds blowing out to right field, and it's 47 degrees. It's not the coldest game on the East Coast, but those are the biggest winds I've seen — maybe ever. His control could be affected, and he was already a heavy BB% pitcher, walking 0.38 batters per inning in the minors. That is the main reason I bet earned runs and not hits allowed. There could be a few walks today here, and anything hit to right field might never come back.
Brewers at Rockies
The angle: 17.5 is a big number at Coors
The move: Kyle Freeland Under 17.5 outs (-110 at BetMGM)
Kyle Freeland projects for just 14.8 outs today from THE BAT, making this Under 17.5 outs one of the best +EV plays of the day. It's a home start at Coors vs. the Milwaukee Brewers, which will be his first in Denver this year.
He has gone 18+ outs in both of his starts this year but also threw 90 pitches last time out vs. 67 in his first, which is a huge jump in volume.
The Colorado Rockies had yesterday off, so the bullpen is refreshed. It's 70 degrees at Coors Field, making it one of the best hitting environments of the day.
Marlins vs. Mets
The angle: Clay Holmes should sit down six batters
The move: Clay Holmes Over 5.5 strikeouts (-108 at FanDuel)
The wind is tough, and facing the same team doesn't help, but it's the Marlins, and Clay Holmes can top this number in just 15 outs of work vs. an afternoon lineup that is already striking out at a 25% clip. It's his first start at Citi Field and he struck out six of 23 Miami batters the last time out.
His K% and BB% numbers should normalize a little more and his .379 BABIP is not going to last forever. He should also get up to 90+ pitches for the first time this season. His fastball velo should find its way back to 96 mph as this was a pitcher who struck out 23 batters over 19 spring innings with a 0.93 ERA. This could be a dominant performance for the reliever-turned-starter who is fully stretched out.
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