Tigers vs Blue Jays Predictions, Picks, Odds: Ride Chapman's Hot Bat in Toronto's Home Opener

After a lengthy 10-game road trip to start the season, the Toronto Blue Jays will finally play their home opener when they host the Detroit Tigers in the newly renovated Rogers Centre on Tuesday night.

The 6-4 Blue Jays managed that road trip fairly well, thanks in part to the white-hot bat of Matt Chapman, who was just named the American League player of the week. 

Tonight, the Jays return home and hand the ball to Alek Manoah, so it’s no surprise they will be big favorites against the visiting 2-7 Tigers.

But is the price too high to back the Blue Jays? And maybe more importantly, will Chapman continue to tear the cover off the ball?

I break down the baseball odds for this American League matchup and bring you my best bet in our MLB picks and predictions for Tigers vs. Blue Jays on April 11.

Tigers vs Blue Jays odds

Tigers vs Blue Jays predictions

Teams usually don’t start the season with 10-game road trips, but the Blue Jays needed a few more days to complete the first phase of their stadium renovations, which included making changes to the outfield fences.

The Blue Jays navigated that road trip fairly well and were carried by their bats during that road trip.

And no one’s bat was hotter than that of third baseman Matt Chapman.

Chapman was named the first American League Player of the Week after going nuclear over the first 10 games of the season. The Jays' third baseman is hitting .475 with a 1.323 OPS and he seems to be getting better with each passing game, hitting his first two home runs of the season in the last two games.

Matt Chapman grand slam and the Blue Jays are back in this game! pic.twitter.com/fMRz8gvx4P

— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) April 9, 2023

Chapman has recorded a knock in nine of his 10 games, has recorded a multi-hit game six times, and already has nine extra-base hits. That has resulted in the Gold Glover going Over 1.5 total bases eight times in his first 10 games of the young season.

Tonight, he’ll look to stay locked in when he digs in against the Tigers’ Matt Manning. The Tigers’ right-hander doesn’t have a ton of swing-and-miss stuff, striking out just 6.4 batters per nine innings over his 31 career starts. Quite frankly, pitching to contact doesn’t look like a great strategy against Chapman right now.

If sportsbooks are going to keep giving plus money like this on the Over for Chapman’s total bases prop, I’m going to keep taking it until he shows us that he is really starting cool off.

My best bet: Matt Chapman Over 1.5 total bases (+120)

Tigers vs Blue Jays moneyline analysis

The Blue Jays hit the board for their home opener as massive -260 home favorites and they have seen the early money, moving as high as -290 as of Tuesday afternoon. 

Toronto hands the ball to ace Alek Manoah. The right-hander was dominant at home last season where he pitched to a 2.42 ERA, and 0.92 WHIP, and limited opponents to a .191 batting average over 15 starts at the Rogers Centre.

Manoah will face a Tigers’ lineup that has really struggled early on. They rank 26th in batting average, and 29th in both OPS and wRC+ when facing right-handed pitchers this season.

That said, Manoah was a little shaky in the Blue Jays’ season opener against the St. Louis Cardinals. Manoah is also an emotional guy, and getting the call in the home opener could have him a little more hyped up than normal.

Additionally, Manning was solid in his first start of the season against the reigning champion Houston Astros, holding them to two runs on six hits over 5 2/3 innings. Long story short, this price seems too high to back the Blue Jays in this spot.

But if you like the Jays tonight, consider taking the Jays on the run line at -125, or even Manoah to record a win at close to even money.

Tigers vs Blue Jays Over/Under analysis

The total for this AL matchup hit the board at 8.5 and has bumped up to 9. Right now, I’d have to agree with the early money.

It’s not just Matt Chapman who is swinging a hot stick for the Jays. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, and even Kevin Kiermaier are doing a great job producing at the plate thus far. Overall, Toronto ranks first in batting average, sixth in OPS, and sixth in scoring at 5.6 runs per game.

And while Manning had some success against the Astros, they made a lot of hard contact against him. Manning pitches to contact and just doesn’t get a lot of whiffs, which is a recipe for disaster against this hot Blue Jays lineup. Manning will also eventually hand the ball to a bullpen that currently ranks 26th in the MLB.

On the other hand, Manoah has a 6.27 expected ERA so far this season and is giving up a .268 expected batting average. Sure, he can dominate this Tigers lineup, but he hasn’t been his sharpest over the course of his first two starts.

I ultimately expect Detroit can do enough here to help send this one Over the total.

Tigers vs Blue Jays game info

Tigers vs Blue Jays betting preview

Starting pitchers

Matt Manning (1-0, 3.18 ERA): Manning is more of a control pitcher as opposed to a strikeout artist. That strategy worked in his first start of the season against the Astros, and he also recorded a quality start against the Blue Jays last year.

Alek Manoah (1-0, 4.35 ERA): Manoah responded to an ugly season-opening start by holding the Royals scoreless over seven innings of work. However, he still battled his control, issuing four walks in that game.

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The Over is 5-1 in the Tigers' last six games overall. Find more MLB betting trends for Tigers vs. Blue Jays

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