Tigers vs Guardians ALDS Game 1 Prop Bets: Greene Makes Green

Prop bet #1: Jose Ramirez Over 1.5 total bases

+120 at DraftKings

Cleveland Guardians All-Star 3B Jose Ramirez is coming off arguably the best season of his 12-year career.

The switch-hitting Ramirez batted .279 with 39 bombs and 118 RBI for the AL Central Division-winning Guardians. He should get some votes for AL MVP and has destroyed the Detroit Tigers' pitching throughout his career and this season. 

Ramirez slashed .347/.407/.755/.1.163 with 17 hits, including five home runs and five doubles across 49 at-bats against the Detroit Tigers this season. He’s also batting .304 with 171 hits, 33 bombs, and 122 RBI across 563 career at-bats.

Tigers lefty Tyler Holton and the rest of the staff are in trouble on Saturday.

Holton may only open this game, but he’s throwing the ball well. He hasn’t allowed an earned run in his last five appearances (4 2/3 innings) but hasn’t lasted into the third inning since August 17.

Holton will leave the game in the hands of a Tigers bullpen boasting the top BABIP (.244) in baseball since the All-Star break. The pen’s BABIP has dipped to .178 during the playoffs, but they are riding on fumes, and their 4.38 xFIP this postseason is concerning.

Ramirez boasts a 1.081 OPS across 164 at-bats with 15 doubles and 14 taters over 164 at-bats against left-handed arms with a more modest .739 OPS in 456 plate appearances against righties.

The Guardians 3B enters this series with multiple hit games in five of his last seven. He’s clobbered the Tigers this season and slashes .382/.452/.727/.1.179 with three home runs and eight extra-base hits across 55 career at-bats against this collection of Tigers arms. I like the plus money, and Ramirez is in a good spot Saturday against some tired Detroit arms.

Prop bet #2: Riley Greene 1+ total bases

-175 at DraftKings

Detroit slugger Riley Greene has endured a lot as a member of the Tigers. He’s seen the good, the bad, and the ugly but has found his way into the ALDS.

Greene has at least one hit in six of his last 10. He’s 3-12 with an extra-base hit against Guardians starter Tanner Bibee and slashes .280/.377/.496/.873 with 18 jacks and 22 extra-base hits across 371 at-bats against righties.

Greene isn’t just raking against Bibee, but also hitting well on the road. The Tigers slugger is slashing .258/.359/.468/.827 with 14 bombs and a dozen extra-base hits.

I like Greene to get a hit today. He’s on a decent run with 25 hits, including 11 extra-base hits and three jacks batting cleanup. He’ll bat fourth today and should be good for at least one hit. 

Prop bet #3: Tanner Bibee Under 5.5 strikeouts

+115 at DraftKings

Guardians righty Tanner Bibee makes his first playoff appearance today.

The 25-year-old righty is striking out a shade over nine per nine, but his difficulties getting anyone out against Detroit is why I like his Under strikeout prop today. 

The Tigers may have a high strikeout rate against righties, but he’s whiffed 6+ only once across four starts against Detroit this season, with 19 strikeouts in 22 frames against the Tigers.

That’s not going to play well in a playoff game. Aside from the lack of Bibee strikeouts, the Tigers have 24 hits with eight extra-base hits, including three jacks across 76 career at-bats. 

Bibee has whiffed 15 Tigers across the last 76 batters. He hasn’t pitched well against Detroit at all this season. He’s making his first playoff appearance and boasts a 4.15 ERA at Progressive Field, and his history against Detroit is why Under 5.5 strikeouts is a good play today.