A night after getting no-hit for the second time already this season, the Seattle Mariners will send top pitching prospect Logan Gilbert to the mound to try to avoid an embarrassing sweep to the Detroit Tigers.
Seattle scored one run in the series opener and will hope for better results tonight out of Gilbert, who was a mixed bag in his MLB debut last week.
Will Seattle's bats show up for the finale? Find out with our best free MLB betting picks and predictions for Tigers vs. Mariners at T-Mobile Park in Seattle on May 19.
Tigers vs Mariners game info
• Location: T-Mobile Park, Seattle, WA
• Date: Wednesday, May 19, 2021
• Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
• TV: RootNW, BSDET
Tigers vs Mariners odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Compare MLB odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
MLB Sharp Money and Line Movement Report
By Patrick EversonSeattle hit TwinSpires' odds board as modest -120 chalk and shot out to -152, where the moneyline stands at 6:30 p.m. ET. Interestingly, the Tigers are taking 57 percent of bets, but the Mariners are drawing 77 percent of cash. The total fell from 8.5 to 8, with 66 percent of bets/63 percent of money on the Under.
Check out the full line movement for this gameTigers vs Mariners betting preview
Starting pitchers
Tarik Skubal (0-6, 5.73 ERA): The lefty has struggled again this season after a rough go in his first taste of the majors last year. Though he showed promise in 2020 as a hard-throwing lefty who can miss bats, he was torched by the long ball and has been again this season. Skubal has allowed a homer in all but two of his six starts and is forcing the bullpen to work, completing six innings in only one outing. But he's coming off a season-high six-inning performance, and the start before that, he punched out a season-high eight batters and allowed two runs.
Logan Gilbert (0-1, 9.00 ERA): Gilbert was involved in the exciting roster moves the Mariners made last week, as not only was he promoted to The Show, but fellow top prospect Jarred Kelenic joined him as well. The two add intrigue to the stagnant franchise, with the pair rating as Top-30 prospects in baseball, according to MLB.com. Gilbert made his MLB debut on Thursday, lasting four innings while surrendering four runs on five hits. He served up two bombs and struck out five. His body of work in the minors was limited, largely due to the pandemic wiping out last year's MILB season, but the 14th overall pick of the 2018 draft was dominant when he did pitch, putting up a 2.12 ERA with great control and a 5.15 strikeout-to-walk rate over 140 innings.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Tigers: Derek Holland RP (Out), Grayson Greiner C (Out).
Mariners: Ty France 3B (Out), Casey Sadler RP (Out), Keynan Middleton RP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 5-0 in the Tigers' last five games following a win. Find more MLB betting trends for Tigers vs. Mariners.
Moneyline pick
Don't look now, but the Tigers are 7-2 over their last nine games and go for their second sweep in three series when they take on the Mariners tonight.
Casey Mize blew through the Mariners in the series opener, continuing a strong run for the young right-hander, before Spencer Turnbull held Seattle to zero hits — the second time in two weeks a pitcher has been able to do that.
It's not just Detroit's pitching, however, that has led to its surprisingly strong run of late. The Tigers were baseball's worst-hitting team in April as measured by weighted runs created plus, batting average, and on-base percentage. But throughout May, they've made a respectable climb to the middle of the pack in wRC+, are sixth in BA (mind you that's fuelled by an unsustainable .348 average on balls in play that leads MLB this month), and fifth in OBP.
The Mariners, on the other hand, aren't hitting and get a favorable matchup against the struggling Skubal. The Tigers haven't won a single game that he has started this season, but Skubal also gets a good matchup in a pitcher's park against a team batting an MLB-worst .199 on the season.
This line is also moving in the wrong direction. Seattle may have been worth the price at the -119 opening, but at -150 with a rookie pitcher making his second career start on the mound, we'll take the Tigers at plus money.
PREDICTION: Detroit (+135)
Over/Under pick
There has been little offense in this series — 10 runs over the two games — and we're not expecting that to change much tonight. Detroit has gone Under in six of its last seven games, while the Mariners have gone Over twice in their previous seven contests.
Skubal entered last season as a Top-5 prospect in the Tigers' system and Top 50 overall in baseball. At only 24, it's certainly too early the write off a lefty starter with a mid-90s heater who has punched out batters at every level.
The worry on this total hitting the Over would be Seattle getting to him, which is of course possible with Skubal entering the start with a 5.73 ERA. But he's slowly moving in the right direction and the only club hitting lefties worse than his own team is the Mariners, who have a putrid wRC+ of 74. They're also dead last in OBP versus southpaws with a mark of .257. This is the perfect spot for Skubal to continue making strides.
Although the Tigers, as mentioned, are an improved-hitting club from April, they strike out more than any team, have no power (25th in homers, 27th in ISO, which measures how often hits go for extra bases), and the game will be played in a park that is one of the most run-suppressing environments in the majors.
That means this is all also good news for the highly-touted Gilbert and an excellent spot for him in his second career start. The Mariners' pitching hasn't been a major problem in this series, as they've racked up 23 strikeouts over the two games and they have a bullpen with a Top-6 ERA mark in the majors.
As much as this pitching matchup could go sideways in another stadium, these offenses at this ballpark are enough to scare us off from the Over.
PREDICTION: Under 8 (-110)
Tigers vs Mariners betting card
- Detroit (+135)
- Under 8 (-110)
Picks made on 5/19/2021 at 2:01 p.m. ET
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