Division leaders duke it out in an interleague affair when the Minnesota Twins visit the Atlanta Braves for a three-game set, starting Monday night.
Minnesota has watched its grip on the American League Central loosen this month, with a poor start to June. But after going 7-11 to kick off this chunk of the calendar, the Twins have since won four of their last five games.
Atlanta has its bettors jumping for joy in June, bringing a 17-4 record this month into Monday’s series opener. Given that momentum and the fact that budding ace Spencer Strider toes the rubber looking for his sixth straight win and his ninth of the season, the Braves are heavy favorites.
I dig into the moneyline and Over/Under total for this AL-versus-NL tilt and give my best MLB picks and predictions for Twins at Braves on June 26.
Twins vs Braves odds
Twins vs Braves predictions
The Twins are a “swing big in case you hit it” kind of team, leading the majors in strikeouts while sitting seventh in home runs.
That approach at the plate has led to some less-than-stellar results this past month, but Minnesota’s offense showed signs of life in recent outings. The Twins have plated 23 total runs in the past five games, with nine homers in that span.
Braves starter Spencer Strider has the stuff to make Minnesota look silly at the plate (Over/Under 9.5 Ks tonight), but he’s been susceptible to the big fly this month. The right-hander has watched his K counts dwindle while giving up 10 total home runs across his last seven starts.
Strider has allowed 16 earned runs over his last 21 innings of work with opposing lineups hitting .306 BA in that span. Sure, he looked strong against the Phillies last time out, holding Philadelphia to one run on eight hits, but the Phils’ bats have all the pop of a two-day-old can of Fresca.
Striders’ ace prowess from earlier in the spring is being overvalued, especially when you measure up Minnesota’s team total. The Twins have a team Over/Under of 3.5 runs with the Over paying +105.
Minnesota hasn’t been a great Over bet against its team totals this season, going 32-47 O/U, but its current form has the club topping that TT in three of the last five games. Coupling that with Striders’ slide provides some solid expected value on the Over 3.5 runs.
My best bet: Twins team total Over 3.5 (+105 at bet365)
Twins vs Braves same-game parlay
Twins team total Over 3.5 (+105)
Carlos Correa Over 0.5 hits (-150)
Sonny Gray Under 15.5 outs recorded (-155)
Strider will challenge Minnesota’s bats and amongst those strikeouts, the hard-hitting Twins will catch up to a couple of those fastballs. That will be enough to plate at least four runs for the visitor.
Shortstop Carlos Correa has the most positive projection to record a hit for the Twins tonight and has picked up at least one hit in six of his last eight games.
Meanwhile, Minnesota starter Sonny Gray’s projections call for fewer than 14 recorded outs in Atlanta tonight. He’s pitching better than his 4-1 record but has also only gone past five innings three times in his last nine starts.
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Twins vs Braves moneyline and Over/Under analysis
Atlanta opened as low as -178 with Strider getting the ball and that has been bet up to as high as -250 at some sportsbooks. Shopping around, you can find the Braves as low as -215 at BetRivers as of noon ET Monday.
This moneyline price is consistent with what the market has shown for Strider’s recent outings. As for Atlanta overall, the club is normally a -200 or higher favorite at home where the Braves boast a 24-15 mark in 2023, earning just 0.60 units for baseball bettors.
Minnesota is coming back in the +175 range with Gray on the mound. The Twins corrected course last week with needed wins over Detroit and Boston to snap a down month. They’re 17-20 on the road and down -3.6 units as visitors heading into Monday.
This Game 1 total opened as low as eight runs at some books while others started at 8.5 (Under -120). As of 12 p.m. ET, the market consensus is 8.5 (Under -115).
Atlanta continues to crush the ball as one of the best-hitting teams in baseball, driving in 5.51 runs per home game. The Braves are 44-30-3 Over/Under on the season (+11 units for the Over), including a 25-13-1 O/U count inside Truist Park (+10.65 units for the Over).
Even with Strider on the hill, Atlanta pads his pitching efforts with solid run support, plating an average of 6.8 runs of support over his 15 starts with the Braves going Over the total in 11 of those starts.
The Twins have been on the other side of the ledger with Over/Under results, opening this week at 35-41-3 O/U (3.10 units for Under). Minnesota is 16-20-1 O/U away from home (+2.75 units for Under) but is 7-8 O/U in Gray’s 15 starts on the year, pushing 3.87 runs of support past home plate in those outings.
Today’s forecast is calling for clear skies and temperatures in the high 80s with humidity in the 60% range in Atlanta, with cross winds blowing from right field out to center-left from 9-11 mpg.
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Trend to know
The Over is 24-11-1 in the Braves’ last 36 home games. Find more MLB betting trends for Twins vs. Braves
Twins vs Braves game info
| Location: | Truist Park, Cumberland, GA |
| Date: | Monday, June 26, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:20 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MLB Network |
Starting pitchers
Sonny Gray (4-1, 2.56 ERA): Gray has gone almost two months without recording a win, going 0-1 over his nine starts. The right-hander hasn’t pitched poorly by any means, maintaining an ERA south of 4.00 in that span. He’s coming off five innings of work against Boston, in which he struck out five batters and walked two while allowing three runs on six hits. Gray is 1-0 with a 3.00 ERA on the road and he’s given up only two home runs over his 81 innings pitched — a comforting statistic given Atlanta leads the big leagues with 139 bombs.
Spencer Strider (8-2, 3.93 ERA): The 24-year-old has picked up three wins in four starts this month, but his June ERA is an unsightly 6.86 with some bumpy outings in the rearview. Teams are catching up with Strider, leading to 10 home runs allowed over his last seven starts. The mustachioed righty has given up 23 total hits over his last three outings with just as many strikeouts in those 15 innings.
