The AL Central race is heating up and we have a strong matchup between the third-place Minnesota Twins and division-leading Cleveland Guardians.
Minnesota won its first game of this series Sunday with a 3-0 victory. The win leaves the Twins six games behind Cleveland in the AL Central and 5.5 games out of the AL Wild Card race.
Can Cleveland rebound and continue its dominance over Minnesota? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Twins vs. Guardians on September 19.
Twins vs Guardians best odds
Twins vs Guardians picks and predictions
The Guardians have already won this rare five-game series and expanded their AL Central lead to six games over the Twins. The Guardians have a 3.5-game lead over the Chicago White Sox and are looking to put some distance between themselves and the rest of the pack with a win Monday.
Enter Cal Quantrill.
The Guardians are 12-1 over his last 13 starts, 17-3 over his last 20 home starts as the favorite, and he’s only -113 pitching at Progressive Field? Sign me up.
Quantrill has given up just seven earned runs with 26 strikeouts over his past 28 innings of work. The righty has pitched six or more innings in seven of his last 10 starts and is 1-0 with four earned runs and 10 strikeouts over 13 frames vs. Minnesota this season.
The Guardians hurler is also the beneficiary of terrific run support, receiving an average of 5.88 runs per game.
The Twins have a good offense on paper, but when they hit the road, they seem to leave their bats on the tarmac. Minnesota slashes .241/.308/.395/.704 over 2418 away at-bats and it's probably why the Twins are 11 games under .500 away from Target Field. It doesn't help that the Twins are severely injured and still don't have the likes of Byron Buxton, Jorge Polanco, or other everyday players they've come to rely on available to play.
Minnesota is 3-2 over Sonny Gray’s past five starts and 2-2 this season when the veteran hurler pitches as the away underdog. Gray strikes out just under seven hitters per nine on the road, but the Indians have the lowest strikeout rate in the game vs righties and without the strikeouts, it could be a long day for Gray.
The current collection of Guardians slash .267/.315/.446/.720 with 23 strikeouts over 104 at bats vs. Gray, and this season has the 11th-highest wRC+ (103).
Finally, the Cleveland bullpen has been lights-out this season, posting a fourth-best 3.09 team ERA. Closer Emanuel Clase hasn’t allowed an earned run in his past seven appearances and has yielded just seven earned runs over 63.2 innings. He’ll finish off the Twinkies and Cleveland will win this matchup.
My best bet: Guardians moneyline (-115 at DraftKings)
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Twins vs Guardians betting preview
Jump to:
•Side analysis •Over/Under analysis •Starting pitchers •Injuries •Weather •Trend to know
Moneyline analysis
It’s difficult to go against a pitcher receiving nearly six runs of support per contest and is 17-3 since 2020 when favored at home. Quantrill has been stellar at home and I expect that to continue on Monday.
The Guardians are 9-1 in their last 10 overall and 9-1 in their last 10 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Conversely, Minnesota is 7-22 in their last 29 road games.
Finally, Cleveland is playing great baseball, and has dominated Minnesota this season (12-6) on the whole and at Progressive Field (6-3). Back the Guardians on Monday.
Over/Under analysis
The total is set at 7.5 runs and considering three of the four games of this series never reached that number, that number is probably correct and is one we’ll leave alone.
The Guardians might be 17-3 over Quantrill’s last 20 home starts as the favorite, but the Over is 13-7 over his last 20 mound appearances at Progressive Field.
We’ve spoken about the run support Quantrill receives, but Minnesota averages 5.38 runs per game when Gray mans the bump.
Finally, the Under is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings in Cleveland and 4-1 in Twins' last five overall. Too many conflicting numbers for me to do anything other than fade the total.
Twins vs Guardians game info
• Location: Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH
• Date: Monday, September 19, 2022
• First pitch: 1:10 p.m. ET
• TV: Bally Sports North
Starting pitchers
Sonny Gray (8-4, 2.83 ERA): Gray has allowed six earned runs with 27 punch outs over his last 28 innings. Gray sports a 3.53 xERA alongside a 3.65 xFIP and his 3.94 xFIP suggests the road may not be as kind to him as Target Field seems to be.
Cal Quantrill (12-5, 3.51 ERA): Over his last 31 frames, Quantrill has surrendered seven earned runs with 26 strikeouts. Quantrill posts a 4.33 xERA alongside a 4.38 xFIP and his 4.30 home xFIP suggests he’s consistent and maybe a bit lucky this season.
Key injuries
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Betting trend to know
The Guardians are 6-1 in their last 7 home games. Find more MLB betting trends for Twins vs. Guardians
