The Cleveland Guardians can shrink their magic number — which sits at nine — to clinch the AL Central when they meet the Minnesota Twins tonight.
Cleveland has been dominant at home and has bettered Minnesota all season. Our Twins vs. Guardians predictions and MLB picks break down why that trend is bound to continue on Monday, September 16.
Twins vs Guardians prediction
My best bet
Guardians moneyline (-105 at DraftKings)
My analysis
The Cleveland Guardians have dominated the Minnesota Twins this season and look to continue that trend when the two clubs meet tonight in Game 1 of their four-game series.
The Guardians expect lefty Matthew Boyd to man the bump tonight. The veteran southpaw has returned to the game after a lengthy injury absence, and he’s posting solid numbers for the Guards.
While he is coming off a tough road start, he’s allowed just one earned run in each of his three starts at Progressive Field, punching out 18 without allowing a home run and only one walk across 17 1/3 innings.
Boyd and the rest of the Guardians staff could be in luck today. The second half of the season hasn’t been good for the Twins as the road team. The Twinkies have dropped eight of their last 10 away games because they’ve scored only 36 runs over that 10-game stretch.
The Cleveland offense can be inconsistent, but it slapped Twins starter Pablo Lopez around in April and the bats can get to the Minnesota bullpen. Since the All-Star break, the Twins bullpen has surrendered the third-most earned runs and meets a Guardians offense averaging nearly five runs per night at Progressive Field.
I like the Guardians to win this one. Boyd has been good at home, and the Cleveland bullpen has allowed a fifth-best 67 earned runs since the break. The Guardians offense tagged Lopez for three earned runs in April and if they can’t get Lopez, they’ll find a way to beat a lousy Twins bullpen.
Twins vs Guardians same-game parlay (SGP)
Guardians moneyline
Pablo Lopez 1+ walks
Jose Ramirez 2+ total bases
Guardians 3B Jose Ramirez is riding an eight-game hitting streak and is slashing .294/.333/.556 with 18 bombs and 19 doubles across 279 at-bats at Progressive Field.
Ramirez has a solid history against Lopez, going 5-for-18 lifetime with one triple and three home runs. He’s also cracked three dingers with 10 hits in 39 at-bats against Twins pitching this season.
Lopez has walked at least one batter in four of his last five and meets a Guardians offense with a low strikeout rate and a 7.6% walk rate since the break.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Twins vs Guardians odds
Twins vs Guardians live odds
Twins vs Guardians opening odds
- Moneyline: Minnesota -110 | Cleveland -110
- Run line: Minnesota -1.5 (+150)| Cleveland +1.5 (-180)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-120) | Under 7.5 (+100)
Twins vs Guardians moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- The Twins have hit the Moneyline in 55 of their last 109 games (-13.70 Units / -9% ROI) yet are a slight away favorite with a .500 road record (37-37).
- FanDuel claims 60% of the bets and 93% of the cash is on the Guardians (-104).
- Over/Under markets opened at 8.5 (-110) but the number dipped between 7.5-8.0 runs. Over 7.5 markets report odds from -118 to -125 while Under 8 (+100) is available.
Twins vs Guardians trend
The Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 86 of their last 150 games (+11.22 Units / 6% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Twins vs Guardians.
Twins vs Guardians game info
| Location: | Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH |
| Date: | Monday, 9-16-2024 |
| First pitch: | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BSNO, BSGL |
| Twins starting pitcher: | Pablo Lopez (15-8, 3.88 ERA) |
| Guardians starting pitcher: | Matthew Boyd (2-1, 2.18 ERA) |
Twins vs Guardians latest injuries
Twins vs Guardians weather
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