The Minnesota Twins and Cleveland Guardians play the second leg of a four-game set at Progressive Field tonight.
Cleveland beat Minnesota 4-3 last night, but my Twins vs. Guardians predictions for September 17 expect a higher-scoring clash this time around.
Here are my free MLB picks for this AL Central showdown.
Twins vs Guardians prediction
My best bet
First five innings Over 4.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The Minnesota Twins will send rookie Zebby Matthews to the hill tonight. Matthews sports a 7.11 ERA with an OBA of .325 across six starts, and he also struggled at the Triple-A level... posting a 5.68 ERA in four outings.
The Cleveland Guardians will counter with sophomore RHP Gavin Williams. Williams has a 5.23 ERA through 14 starts while ranking in the bottom fifth percentile in exit velocity and the bottom 15th percentile in hard-hit rate. He's been even worse lately, pitching to a 6.44 ERA while allowing an OPS of .813 in eight starts since the beginning of August.
Both lineups have dropped off a bit since the All-Star break but were Top-10 offenses in the first half of the season, and I expect them to find their groove against mediocre starters today.
With the Guardians boasting the best bullpen in the majors, avoid the full game total and take the Over 4.5 on the first five innings instead.
Twins vs Guardians same-game parlay (SGP)
First five innings Over 4.5
Byron Buxton Over 1.5 total bases
Josh Naylor Over 0.5 RBI
Byron Buxton has gone 3-for-10 with four RBI in three games since returning from the IL. The 2022 All-Star leads the Twins with a slugging percentage of .530, and he has excellent reverse platoon splits, posting an OPS of .876 against righties like Williams.
Josh Naylor is slashing .245/.323/.459 and is seventh in the majors with 103 RBI. He performs better at home, where he slugs .498, and he'll also have the platoon advantage against Matthews.
The slugger has a solid chance of driving in a run against either Matthews or a struggling Minnesota bullpen sitting second-last in ERA (5.23) since the All-Star break.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Twins vs Guardians odds
Twins vs Guardians live odds
Twins vs Guardians opening odds
- Moneyline: Minnesota +105 | Cleveland -125
- Run line: Minnesota +1.5 (-200) | Cleveland -1.5 (+165)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+100) | Under 8.5 (-120)
Twins vs Guardians moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- Early money has come in on the Guardians and the Under, shifting the line to Cleveland -140 and moving the total down to 8.0.
- The Guardians are atop the AL Central with an 87-64 record and have won six of their last eight games.
- The Twins are 4-9 in their last 13 and have a 79-71 record on the year.
- Since the All-Star break, Minnesota is 16th in the majors in OPS (.716), while Cleveland is just 26th (.674).
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Twins vs Guardians trend
The Twins have hit the game total Over in 48 of their last 84 games (+14.20 Units / 15% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Twins vs. Guardians.
Twins vs Guardians game info
| Location: | Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH |
| Date: | Tuesday, 9-17-2024 |
| First pitch: | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BSNO, BSGL |
| Twins starting pitcher: | Zebby Matthews (1-3, 7.11 ERA) |
| Guardians starting pitcher: | Gavin Williams (3-9, 5.23 ERA) |
Twins vs Guardians latest injuries
Twins vs Guardians weather
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