With 11 games to go, the Minnesota Twins could be sweating out the wild card race right to the final weekend, and they’ve got a tough matchup on deck tonight against the rock-solid Cleveland Guardians.
Minnesota leveled the series against their AL Central rivals last night behind a clutch Willi Castro two-run dinger, but my Twins vs. Guardians predictions see Cleveland answering this evening.
Find out more in my MLB picks for Wednesday, September 18.
Twins vs Guardians prediction
My best bet
Guardians moneyline (-114 at Pinnacle)
My analysis
With all the attention on the AL East race between the Yankees and Orioles, there’s been less fanfare around the Cleveland Guardians’ outstanding season.
But at 87-65, the Guardians are right there as an AL powerhouse, and they’re on the brink of locking up the AL Central crown. Most of all, this is a formidable home team boasting a 46-28 mark at Progressive Field this year, and I’m picking Cleveland to add to that record against the Minnesota Twins.
The Guardians are 7-3 in the last 10 meetings between these teams — and they’ve won four of the past five matchups in Cleveland. The pitching duel is another angle worth exploring, and I see it tilting in the hosts’ favor.
Bailey Ober and Tanner Bibee both enter with impressive 2024 numbers, but they’ve run into rockier times over the past few weeks. That’s especially true for Ober, who boasts a 3.90 ERA and 0.99 WHIP this season but has posted an ERA of 5.86 across his last five outings — and the Twins have lost four of those contests.
Meanwhile, Bibee has faced Minnesota three times already in 2024. He’s landed the win in two of those starts on the way to a 1.50 ERA, and Cleveland has racked up victories in all three contests.
With the playoff pressure cranking up, The Twins are 4-6 in their past 10 games (and just 10-18 since August 18). I expect that wobble to continue tonight.
Twins vs Guardians same-game parlay (SGP)
Guardians moneyline
Jose Ramirez Over 1.5 total bases
Tanner Bibee Under 6.5 strikeouts
A Jose Ramirez prop feels like a no-brainer for my SGP, with the Cleveland star riding a 10-game hit streak. He had a late double last night and a pair of singles in the series opener on Monday — plus two doubles and a home run against Tampa Bay over the weekend.
Ramirez also has a great track record against Ober, going 5-for-16 with two doubles and a home run, and seems to be heating up at the perfect moment for the hosts’ postseason hopes. He’s powered his way to a .296 batting average at Progressive Field this season, and I see him being the spark for the Guardians tonight.
Additionally, I’m fading Bibee's strikeouts total. Although the right-hander had nine Ks against the Rays on Friday, he’s only recorded seven or more strikeouts in two of his past 10 starts. That makes the Over on 6.5 Ks a risky pick.
There hasn’t been a ton of offense in this series yet, but keep in mind that the Twins rank just outside the Top 10 in hits and runs — and it’s a line-up that should make Bibee work hard tonight, especially with Carlos Correa shining at the top of the order.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Twins vs Guardians odds
Twins vs Guardians live odds
Twins vs Guardians opening odds
- Moneyline: Minnesota -105 | Cleveland -115
- Run line: Minnesota -1.5 (+165) | Cleveland +1.5 (-200)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-115) | Under 7.5 (-105)
Twins vs Guardians moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- The Guardians enter as clear favorites as they close in on the 90-win mark, and they’ve only lost two of their last seven series.
- The Twins have hit the F5 team total Under in 14 of their last 20 games, though the Over is 76-69-6 for Minnesota this year.
- Cleveland is only allowing 3.91 runs per game this season, partly thanks to its relievers’ impressive 2.67 ERA.
- Seven of the last 10 meetings between these teams have served up seven runs or fewer, so don’t count on fireworks tonight.
Twins vs Guardians trend
With the Cleveland pitching staff doing some heavy lifting, the Under is 8-1-1 in the Guardians’ last 10 games. Find more MLB betting trends for Twins vs. Guardians.
Twins vs Guardians game info
| Location: | Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH |
| Date: | Wednesday, 9-18-2024 |
| First pitch: | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally North, Bally Great Lakes |
| Twins starting pitcher: | Bailey Ober (12-6, 3.77 ERA) |
| Guardians starting pitcher: | Tanner Bibee (11-7, 3.57 ERA) |
Twins vs Guardians latest injuries
Twins vs Guardians weather
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