We have the third and final matchup of this AL Central intradivisional series with the Chicago White Sox hosting the Minnesota Twins. This game is the 12th meeting between these two clubs this season with Minnesota winning six of the first 11 matchups.
Will the Twins come out victorious once again, or can the White Sox finish off a series sweep as a short home favorite? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Twins vs. White Sox on Sunday, September 4.
Twins vs White Sox odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
This game opened as a pick ‘em on Saturday morning before the White Sox were bet up to -125. The consensus opening total was unveiled at 7.5 and has since been bet up to 8.5.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Twins vs White Sox predictions
Picks made on 9/4/2022 at 1:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Twins vs White Sox game info
• Location: Guaranteed Rate Field, Chicago, IL
• Date: Sunday, September 4, 2022
• First pitch: 2:10 p.m. ET
• TV: Bally Sports North, NBCS Chicago
Twins vs White Sox betting preview
Starting pitchers
Dylan Bundy (7-6, 4.53 ERA): Making his 24th start of the season for Minnesota, right-hander Dylan Bundy will look to continue his much better second half of the season. Over his last five starts, Bundy is 1-1 with a 2.63 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. Boasting a five-pitch arsenal, Bundy typically relies on his 4-seam fastball to set up either a slider or a changeup to retire hitters. The slider is his most effective weapon with hitters possessing a mere .206 xBA against it this season.
Lucas Giolito (10-8, 5.27 ERA): Taking the mound for the White Sox is right-hander Lucas Giolito. Giolito has had a tumultuous season, to say the least, with seemingly every other start bringing different results. One day, Giolito may allow seven earned runs through three innings and then allow just one run through six the next start. And yes, this example literally happened two weeks ago. That being said, the former all-star still possesses a strong 4-seamer that keeps hitters at an xBA south of .250, relying on that pitch 47.4% of the time.
Weather
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Key injuries
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Betting trend to know
Dylan Bundy has allowed two or fewer earned runs in in each of his last five starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Twins vs. White Sox
Twins vs White Sox picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
Coming off a game where they almost got no-hit, the Minnesota Twins will look to bounce back against the Chicago White Sox. We should expect this to happen with right-hander Dylan Bundy slated to take the mound for the Twins.
Through 23 starts this season, Bundy is 7-6 with a 4.53 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. While those numbers are not the best, he has been much better during the second half of the season as he has finally found a rhythm with his new team (see starting pitcher section).
This strong play should continue against Chicago. Through his nine career starts against the White Sox, Bundy is a flawless 6-0 with a 3.47 ERA and 0.98 WHIP.
While those starts span across six seasons, his best performances against them have occurred this season. Across Bundy’s three starts against Chicago this season, he is 2-0 with a 2.35 ERA and 0.93 WHIP.
Through 93 career plate appearances against Bundy, this current White Sox roster possesses a mere .209 BA, .337 SLG, and .247 wOBA. Following Bundy is a solid relief staff.
Since August 1, the Twins’ relief pitching ranks ninth in the league in ERA, eighth in WHIP, 14th in SLG, 10th in wOBA, and fourth in FIP. Minnesota did not use a single reliever yesterday (two starters and two position players due to the blowout), so their entire bullpen should be available.
Prediction: Twins moneyline (+105 at DraftKings)
Over/Under analysis
While the Twins pitching staff should shut the White Sox down, their lineup may struggle to generate runs against right-hander Lucas Giolito. While Giolito is typically very inconsistent, he has dominated Minnesota over the last two seasons.
Across his last four starts against the Twins between the last two years, Giolito is 3-0 with a 2.08 ERA and 0.81 WHIP. Through 125 career plate appearances against Giolito, this current Minnesota roster possesses a troubling .182 BA, .318 SLG, and .262 wOBA.
Following Chicago’s right-hander is a decent bullpen. Since August 1, the White Sox’s bullpen ranks in the top half of the league in SLG, wOBA, and FIP.
We are getting a generous number on the total because each lineup has been solid against right-handed pitching this season. However, these two starting pitchers have each dominated this matchup and are followed by competent bullpens.
Prediction: Under 8.5 (-115 at DraftKings)
Best bet
With all that being said, we can find better bets than the Twins moneyline because Giolito has dominated them over the past two years. I am also not confident enough to take the Under due to the fact that Giolito, while good against Minnesota, is wildly inconsistent.
The one play I am most confident in is for the Twins’ right-hander to continue to see success. Allowing two or fewer earned runs in each of his last five starts, we should expect Bundy’s strong pitching to continue against the White Sox.
Bundy has allowed two or fewer earned runs in two of his three outings against Chicago this season. Additionally, he has been outstanding on the mound during the second half of the season as he has finally found a groove amidst playing for his third club over the last four seasons.
This White Sox lineup is already battling because of the injuries to Tim Anderson and Yoan Moncada, and add to the fact that they are going against a starting pitcher that has succeeded against them, I would not be shocked if Bundy keeps them at bay.
Dylan Bundy Prop: Under 2.5 earned runs allowed (-125 at DraftKings)
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