Twins vs Yankees Predictions, Picks, Odds: Striking Against the Empire

The Minnesota Twins and New York Yankees play the third contest in a four-game series on Saturday afternoon at Yankee Stadium. 

The Twins picked up the 4-3 comeback victory on Friday night at The Stadium, outscoring the Yankees by a 15-5 margin in the first two games of the series.

The Yankees have dropped three of the past four games at home, while going just 4-4 at home this season.

Can the Yankees finally cobble together enough offense for a win in this series, or will the Twins continue to maintain their mastery of the Bronx Bombers? We’ll discuss in our MLB picks and predictions for Twins vs. Yankees on Saturday, April 15.

Twins vs Yankees odds

Twins vs Yankees predictions

There’s an odd fact that we need to get out of the way right off the bat: In the past five Yankees games, either New York or its opponent, has started the game with a 2-0 lead in the first inning on four occasions. The team that took the 2-0 lead in the opening frame ended up losing each time.

New York posted two runs in the bottom of the first for the early 2-0 lead on Friday. It had a 3-2 lead after seven innings, too, but Clay Holmes coughed up two runs in the eighth for his first loss and blown save of the season.

Carlos Correa and Kyle Garlick smacked homers for the Twinkies on Friday night. I had no idea Forest Whitaker’s character in Good Morning Vietnam played baseball. 

Correa has homers in consecutive games for his first two dingers of the season. Michael Taylor had two bombs on Thursday, and Edouard Julien had one, too. If you’re scoring at home, that’s six homers for Minnesota against New York pitching in two days.

If you want to go lightly, a Correa anytime home run at BetMGM is +475 on Saturday. He’s 2-for-9 (.222) with a walk and four strikeouts against RHP Domingo German, in case you were wondering. Jose Miranda, who has a homer in two career at-bats against German, comes in at +575 for an Anytime HR.

As far as the side, the Twins have won four straight games, including both of the first two games of this series as an underdog. 

RHP Tyler Mahle goes for the Twins, and he has had mixed results in his first starts. He was strong on the road against the Miami Marlins, while getting knocked around a bit against the Houston Astros. He has at least six strikeouts in each of his first two starts, totaling 13 punchouts in 11 IP. 

The strikeout player prop for Mahle is Over 5.5 at even money. That might be the best play on the board, especially since the Yankees have 126 strikeouts, tied for No. 12 in the majors.

My best bet: Tyler Mahle Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+100)

Twins vs Yankees moneyline analysis

The Twins have won the first two in this series, cashing in each game as an underdog. The Yankees have yet to be defeated in three straight games at any point on the young season.

While the Twins are 2-0 in this series so far, Minnesota is still 9-24 in the past 33 games against teams with a winning overall record. They’re also 3-7 in the past 10 games during Game 3 of a series, including 2-2 this season, and 1-1 on the road.

On the flip side, the Yankees are a perfect 4-0 in the third game of a series, while going 60-27 in the past 87 games at The Stadium, good for a winning percentage of .690 during the impressive span.

New York has also posted 59 wins in the past 81 tries against American League Central foes, while going 44-12 in the previous 56 matchups at home against the Twins despite the 0-2 hiccup in the past two days.

German has been shaky in his first two outings, failing to last more than 4 2/3 innings in either of his outings. He allowed a pair of homers in the first start at home, while walking five and striking out none last time out against the Guardians.

Yankee Stadium has been a house of horrors over the years for the Twins, and it’s a tall order for Minnesota earning a third straight win in the Bronx. Back German and the Bombers on Saturday, but go lightly based on German’s erratic start to the season.

Twins vs Yankees Over/Under analysis

There’s a 40% chance of precipitation for today’s game, which could affect the start, or perhaps rear its ugly head at some point during play.

More important for total bettors, the wind will be blowing in from center field directly into the faces of the batters at an 8-11 mph clip, knocking balls down and keeping the scores a little lower than the first two games.

The Under is 4-1-1 in the past six games for the Twins, while going 4-1-1 in the past six tries against right-handed starting pitchers, too.

For the Yankees, the Under is 10-4 in the past 14 games at home, while cashing at a 5-2 clip in the past seven in Game 3 of a series.

The trends, coupled with the brisk wind blowing directly in, is a good reason to go low on the total, coupling with the Yankees for a nice parlay opportunity.

Twins vs Yankees game info

Twins vs Yankees betting preview

Starting pitchers

Tyler Mahle (1-1, 4.09 ERA): The 28-year-old right-hander has been very hittable, allowing 13 knocks while walking two batters, good for a 1.36 WHIP during the early going. He’s also struck out at least six batters in his two outings, although he has yet to post a quality start.

Domingo German (0-1, 5.87 ERA): The 30-year-old Dominican righty served up two homers in his first home start against the Philadelphia Phillies on April 4. He kept the ball down in Cleveland last time out on Monday, but he lasted just three innings, and his control was off, walking five and striking out none.

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Twins are 6-1 in their last seven road games vs. a right-handed starter. Find more MLB betting trends for Twins vs. Yankees

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