The Toronto Blue Jays entered the 2023 MLB season with high expectations and one of the deepest rosters they’ve had in quite some time. Their preseason World Series odds only fueled thoughts of making a deep postseason run, but “The Sequel” has been nothing more than a bad comedy.
One player, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., was expected to lead the team offensively and while he’s done so in many regards, he’s not doing what most expected him to do – hit dingers.
The first baseman has just nine home runs heading into the Blue Jays’ upcoming series against the lowly Oakland Athletics at Rogers Centre and while you’d think this is a great opportunity for Vladdy to add to his home run numbers, it’s not quite that simple.
All nine of his home runs have come on the road, which begs the question: When will Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hit his first home run in front of the Toronto faithful? We take a closer look at the MLB odds for this betting market and break down when we expect Vlad to break the goose egg.
Odds For Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s first home run at Rogers Centre
| Date | Odds |
|---|---|
| June 23 vs. Oakland | +350 |
| June 24 vs. Oakland | +425 |
| June 25 vs. Oakland | +550 |
| After June 26 or no Rogers Centre HR in 2023 | +100 |
Odds courtesy of bet365 as of June 22, 2023.
Power outage for power hitter
Before we get into breaking down the respective pitching matchups Vladdy is set to face over the next nine home games spanning from June 23 to July 2, we must first dive into Guerrero’s numbers this season and over his career at home. This year, Guerrero has had 132 plate appearances at Rogers Centre and only seven of his 28 hits have been for extra bases. He’s swinging just above the Mendoza line with a .239 batting average and owns a paltry .299 slugging percentage. If we break it down, his splits tell us he’s not doing anything different at home than on the road. He does have a higher strikeout (18.2% > 14%) and walk rate (10.2% > 7.8%) at home but it’s not a major red flag.
If you compare those to this year’s road splits of 50 hits, eight for extra bases, a .307 BA, and a .522 SLG%, you’d think he’s not getting enough home cooking.
Part of the reason those numbers are skewed is due to an unbalanced schedule that has the Jays playing 13 more road games to date. Another factor could be that Rogers Centre was just renovated in the offseason and with new dimensions come new sightlines which could pose an issue.
If we look at Vladdy’s home numbers from last season, he managed 86 hits with 18 for extra bases and 19 long balls. He swung the bat at a .273 BA and had a .511 SLG%.
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Rogers Centre has been a factor
Since we are comparing Guerrero’s stats, it’s only fair to the Dominican slugger that we compare the new and improved Rogers Centre to that of last year.
This season, through 32 home games, Rogers Centre sits in the bottom third of the league in terms of primary park factors which considers all batting metrics like singles, doubles, triples, home runs, walks, etc. It has an overall park factor of 97 (No. 21) and home run wise it sits at 92 (No. 23).
Last season, Rogers Centre was among the best ballparks to hit at, checking in with an overall park factor rating of 103 (No. 5) and 117 (No. 6) just factoring in home runs.
So, it’s safe to say that the new dimensions are playing a major role in Guerrero’s lack of long balls at home.
"You chalk it up to kind of a really small sample size," Manager John Schneider said about Guerrero’s recent home struggles. "I'm sure he wants to hit a home run here and I'm sure the fans want him to hit a home run here and those are going to come. And when they come, they're probably going to come in bunches when they do."
It’s also evident that the lack of production from the face of the franchise is starting to weigh heavily on him and he’s starting to let that emotion show out on the field with negative body language.
"I'm very aware (I haven't hit a home run at home this year), but it's not like I'm not trying to do great things here at home," Guerrero told TSN. "Every day I come here and work very hard trying to get things right, but that's part of it, and I know eventually I'm going to start hitting some homers here."
Upcoming Blue Jays home schedule
The Blue Jays are set to open a nine-game homestand against the Athletics on Friday. They will also see the San Francisco Giants and Boston Red Sox come to town which brings us past Canada Day.
In Game 1 against the A’s he’ll face right-hander, James Kaprielian, and in Game 2 he’ll likely see lefty Hogan Harris, and considering he’s not hit any of his nine home runs against southpaws, well take our chances backing him vs. Kaprielian. Kaprielian owns a 6.38 ERA with a 1.62 WHIP, and he’s been hittable all year long, but he’s given up just eight home runs this year in 55 innings and three of them have come over his last 10 starts. He’s a fastball-slider pitcher with the occasional sinker and changeup.
Vladdy comes into this game with just three plate appearances vs. Kaprielian but does have one hit against him. He does own a .346 batting average against fastballs, so if ever there was a time to sit dead red against a pitcher that throws heaters 42 percent of the time, it’s on Friday night.
It’s also a good omen that the Athletics have given up the most home runs this season with 111, so back Vladdy on Friday night to go yard.
My best bet: June 23 vs. Oakland (+350 at bet365)
