White Sox vs Orioles Picks and Predictions: Watkins Grounds Chicago

Tonight will mark game two of a three-game set between the Baltimore Orioles and Chicago White Sox. 

Last night, the Orioles defeated the White Sox and ace Dylan Cease by a score of 5-3. It was Baltimore's third win in the previous four games, and it kept its deficit in the AL Wild Card race to 2.5. 

For Chicago, it’s now .500 in its last ten and four games back of first place in AL Central

Who will snag game two? Find out in our MLB picks and predictions for the Orioles vs. White Sox on Wednesday, August 24, 2022.

White Sox vs Orioles odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

Since opening as a pick’em, the White Sox have taken a bit of money and dropped to -120. The O’s are returning at +100 in most spots.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

White Sox vs Orioles predictions

• Prediction: Orioles ML (+106)
• Prediction: Orioles TT Over 3.5 (-115)
• Best bet: Mullins Over 1.5 TB (+135)

Picks made on 8/24/2022 at 11:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

White Sox vs Orioles game info

• Location: Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD
• Date: Wednesday, August 24, 2022
• First pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET
• TV: FS1

White Sox vs Orioles betting preview

Starting pitchers

Lucas Giolito (9-7, 5.34 ERA): When Giolito isn't striking out teams, he struggles. That's evidenced by a hard-hit and barrel-rate, and exit velocity that all rank below league average. What's plagued Giolito the most are the off-speed pitches. His changeup has produced a +11 run value, and his slider has created a +7 run value. 

Spenser Watkins (4-3, 4.04 ERA): Watkins has posted an xERA of 4.82, which leads one to believe that more negative regression could be coming. What has kept him afloat is a slider that has produced a -3 run value. Beyond that, the numbers are pretty rough, as Watkins’ exit velocity, barrel rate, and xSLG percentage all rank at the bottom of baseball. 

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Over is 4-0 in Lucas Giolito's last four starts. Find more MLB betting trends for White Sox vs. Orioles

White Sox vs Orioles picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

Who will be the better of two bad pitchers? That's the key to figuring out this handicap. I'll be backing the Orioles today. 

I generally can't understand why this White Sox team would be favored over the Orioles at this point in the season. 

Baltimore is 4-1 against Chicago this season and has primarily controlled those games. The Orioles led throughout against the White Sox's best pitcher in Dylan Cease last night. 

As for the matchup, I won't pretend that either of these pitchers is expected to deliver dominant performances. However, the two have distinct differences based on their matchup. 

The White Sox have the fourth highest ground ball rate in baseball, and that element may be the most important angle of this game. The last time Watkins faced this White Sox team, he delivered his best season performance, going five scoreless innings. Outside of that, he's had eight starts allowing just one run. 

That points to a few bad performances overshadowing some good numbers. However, it also illuminates just how much he excels when he can induce ground balls. Over half of these games have come against teams that rank in the Top 5 in groundball rate. 

He's twice held the Cubs (third in groundball rate) to one run and held the A’s (fifth in groundball rate) to one run. In other words, there's seemingly a direct correlation between matchups against teams that hit an excessive amount of ground balls and Watkins' success.

We can talk a little more about Giolito when we look at the total, but it seems unconscionable to back him against the O’s. It gets harder to do that when they are at plus money. 

Baltimore's offense has been able to find big hit after big hit this season and seems incredibly well-rounded. Not to mention virtually all of its offensive numbers go up — while most teams go down — when it plays in Camden Yards.

My projections see this one priced correctly. However, my handicap seems something different. Give me the O’s.

Prediction: Orioles moneyline (+106 at FanDuel)

Over/Under analysis

We will target Giolito in this matchup and ride the Orioles’ team total.

For starters, despite the matchup, Baltimore scored Over 3.5 runs in three of its last four games. The O’s average more than four runs per game within the confines of Camden Yards. They scored around 3.5 runs in four of their five matchups against Chicago this season. 

So, asking to cash this bet is simply asking the Orioles’ offense to be average. As for the matchup?

I've picked on Giolito throughout this article, but it's for a good reason. Any way you slice it, teams have success making solid contact against him. The Orioles aren't an exceptional hitting team, but they do tons of things well. 

They rank in the Top 10 in barrel rate, solid contact, and exit velocity. That spells trouble for Giolito. Slash numbers, such as batting average, slugging percentage, and most importantly, BABip, are all the highest against finesse-style pitchers for Baltimore. In other words, it excels the most against pitchers that use a heavy amount of breaking balls in their arsenal.

Giolito has struggled mightily throughout the season, and he'll find it tough sledding to find any weak spots in his matchup. With the low team total, we have some excellent value here. 

My projections are calculating roughly a 7% edge, and that's one I'll happily back.

Prediction: Orioles team total Over 3.5 (-115 at DraftKings)

Best bet

In 10 career at-bats against Giolito, Cedric Mullins has great numbers. He's batting .600 but, more importantly, has taken eight bases. If we convert that to three at-bats against Giolito today, that means Mullins is taking roughly 1.5 bases over 50% of the time. That gives us an edge over the implied probability of 43% on his total bases prop. 

Additionally, there are things that I like to have on my side when looking at total bases props. One of those is sprint speeds, and Cedric Mullins has the third highest sprint speed on his team and one that grades out in the Top 15% of baseball. 

Beyond the raw numbers and the speed, Mullins has the advantage of having the best numbers on the team against breaking-ball pitchers. Those pitches have plagued Giolito all season, making this a natural strength on weakness. 

Pick: Cedric Mullins Over 1.5 total bases (+135 at FanDuel)

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