Diamondbacks vs Rangers World Series Game 2 Player Prop Bets: Moreno Mashes Monty

Prop bet #1: Monty ready for regression

Jordan Montgomery has been outstanding for most of the postseason with the Texas Rangers going 4-1 when he takes the hill

We must ask ourselves whether he can last 5 1/3 frames against an Arizona Diamondbacks offense that looks to put the ball in play and let their speed do the work. I don’t believe he will.

The Game 7 relief appearance against Houston was a big outing for the veteran southpaw, but throwing 2 1/3 innings on three days’ rest and returning to the hill five days later to start against a contact-first hitting team like Arizona might be a big ask.

Finally, Montgomery has made four playoff starts and outperformed his Outs prop in three of those four. Arizona is a scrappy offense with a low strikeout rate that knows how to score runs on the road, and 15.5 outs against that type of offense is a big ask for a pitcher who has outperformed his regular-season numbers.  

Jordan Montgomery prop: Under 15.5 outs

Prop bet #2: Moreno Mashing

Gabriel Moreno is one of the Diamondbacks' best hitters against left-handed pitching and has a solid history against Montgomery. 

The Diamondbacks catcher took the collar last night, snapping a six-game postseason hitting streak. However, Moreno is 4-for-7 lifetime against the Rangers' southpaw, with a double, home run, and four RBI. 

Montgomery has had difficulties throughout his career against right-handed hitters, and righties have batted .259 with a .305 OBP and .440 slugging percentage against the southpaw during the regular season pitching for two teams.

Moreno mashed lefties on the road during the regular season, cracking LHP for a .316 average, three bombs, 10 RBI, and 18 hits over 60 plate appearances.

Finally, Moreno has a decent history against Montgomery and has been red-hot during the playoffs. He’s moved to the third hole, allowing him to get more ABs and possibly drive in some runs. Moreno batted .352 against southpaws this season, and I believe he’ll have a big game at the plate tonight.

Gabriel Moreno prop: Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-125 at BetMGM)

Prop bet #3: Kelly gets conquered

Merrill Kelly has been fantastic for Arizona down the stretch, but he has a difficult matchup tonight against one of the best offenses in baseball against right-handed pitching.

Kelly has tamed the current collection of Rangers over 30 ABs. Still, the Texas offense ranked second in the AL in runs scored and led the AL in team batting average and slugging percentage while creating the fourth-most runs in baseball against RHP.

The Arizona righty has posted a 2.65 ERA over 17 frames during the postseason but his 4.38 xFIP indicates he could experience some regression — which could happen as soon as tonight. 

Kelly will have to make too many pitches and doesn’t have the stuff to blow this Rangers offense away.

Merrill Kelly prop: Under 16.5 outs