Wow, what a night the Philadelphia Phillies just had in the World Series — they couldn’t stop hitting home runs en route to a 7-0 win. Philly now leads the series 2-1, opening the door for a pivotal Game 4 for the Astros tonight.
I said we were due for a sweep on our betting card, and we got it. We cashed two plus-money props, and our "Lance McCullers hits" prop to 3-for-3. For the World Series, we’re running hot at a clip of 7-for-9. So, let's keep this momentum going tonight.
How will the Astros respond after a loss? Can Bryce Harper stay hot? Find that out more in our MLB prop picks for World Series Game 4 for Houston Astros vs. Philadelphia Phillies.
Astros vs Phillies prop picks
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Astros vs Phillies Game 4 props
Bryce stays nice
Another spot where the number could be more attractive, but the value is too much to ignore. Let's take Bryce Harper to get a hit tonight. My projections have priced this prop at -225, which is a considerable edge vs. the best number I can find right now.
There are many suspicions that Astros pitcher Lance McCullers was tipping his pitches last night. Given the evidence, it's pretty hard to deny. However, I doubt that did much for Bryce Harper's hot-hitting streak continuing. He's had a hit in every postseason game except two so far. If you priced that out with that raw data, this prop would be about -600. Tonight, Harper gets Christian Javier on the mound for the Astros. I like that matchup enough.
This is strictly a numbers play. Javier is dominant, but with the postseason Harper has had, he shouldn't be priced this friendly. With that in mind, I'd look for him to continue his patient approach at the plate and attack Javier's offspeed pitches. Most of them have produced negative run values, and Harper is hitting offspeed pitches at the second-highest clip of any Phillie this postseason.
Bryce Harper prop: To get a hit (-160 at FanDuel)
Liftoff for Astros
DraftKings has opened an exciting market for the World Series: Which pitcher will give up an earned run first. It's different from the first team to score, for if neither pitcher gives up a run, then both sides lose. Because of that, it's also priced differently. For instance, the Astros are a pretty firm favorite to score first at -150, but Aaron Nola is priced at -120 to give up the first earned run. I'll happily take the 30-cent discount.
As I've written a few times in these prop previews, the Astros aren't going to go silent, as a culture ingrained in their success has carried them so many times. This is another spot where I expect that to happen in a must-win game. At the beginning of the series, I expected this to go the full seven games. I've seen nothing so far that suggests that should change. I expect the Astros to win tonight, but I'm even more confident they will get off to a stronger start than the Phillies. They followed up the first loss in the playoffs with five unanswered runs, including three in the first inning. I wouldn't be shocked to see something similar tonight.
The Astros scored the fourth-most first-inning runs in the MLB this season. That number went to second-best after a loss. They aren't required to score in the first inning to cash this bet, but it's an excellent way to qualify that they are great bounce-back candidates. Back the culture of the Astros.
Aaron Nola prop: Aaron Nola first earned run allowed (-120 at DraftKings)
Big-timers step up
Similar to the set-up we had in Game Two. We have a situation tonight where there's a blatant "bad pitch" for a Phillies pitcher, and several Astros players hit that pitch hard. In this case, the pitch is the change-up, and the hitters are Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker.
The change-up has produced an 8-run value this season for Aaron Nola — batters have smoked it. The problem in both of these hitting matchups is if he throws the fastball, they may be sitting on it. That rings particularly true for Alvarez, one of baseball's best fastball hitters. By nature of not wanting hitters to get their "preferred pitch," Nola is going to have to concede and throw some off-speed stuff. These two players happen to have the highest hard-hit rate on the team of any Astro players against the change-up. Alvarez, who has been a little quiet as of late, ranks in the Top 25 in all of baseball against them.
I have this priced at +145. There is tremendous value in taking one of the hottest hitters in this series and pairing him with one of the best. The Astros have their backs against the wall tonight — they need their best players to step up. This is another way of backing the Astros culture and betting that one does. Hopefully, it comes in the form of a longball. We like our chances.
Player Prop: Yordan Alvarez or Kyle Tucker hits home run (+175 at DraftKings)
