In a rematch of the 2019 ALCS, the Houston Astros and New York Yankees will get down Saturday night for the second game of their three-game set before the All-Star break.
The Yanks blanked the home team last night 4-0 in the opener, thanks to some stellar starting pitching. New York is hoping Gerrit Cole was taking notes as another rough start heading into the break would not be ideal for the $36 million man.
Here are our free picks and predictions for Yankees vs. Astros for Saturday, July 10.
Yankees vs Astros game info
• Location: Minute Maid Park, Houston, TX
• Date: Saturday, July 10, 2021
• Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
• TV: ATT SportsNet-SW, YES
Yankees vs Astros odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Compare MLB odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
MLB sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonBetMGM Nevada opened this clash as a -110 pick 'em Friday night, moved to -115 this morning and stuck there all day. As of 4:30 p.m. ET, that modest move toward the Yankees isn't indicative of the liability in a relatively lightly bet game. "Tickets are about 1.5/1 and money about 10/1 on the Yankees, but it's not a big decision. The White Sox and Red Sox moneylines are where all the money is today," BetMGM Nevada's Randy Madayag said. The total moved from 8.5 flat (-110) to 8 (Over -115) on a little sharp play, and while ticket count is running even, money is actualy 12/1 on the Over.
Check out the full line movement for this gameYankees vs Astros betting preview
Starting pitchers
Gerrit Cole (8-4, 2.91 ERA): Gerrit Cole has surrendered nine earned runs over his last 8 1-3 innings, as things have gone somewhat south for the $36 million-per-year pitcher. Over his last six starts, he has seen his ERA climb from 1.78 to 2.91. Cole had just three walks in his first 52 innings this season but has 17 BBs over his last 53 innings. If there is a poster boy for spin-rate demise, it’s Cole, who has seen his CY Young odds go from -200 to -170 over the last two weeks.
Zack Greinke (8-2, 3.64 ERA): Over his last 15 starts, the veteran righty Zack Greinke has been saddled with a loss just once. He is coming off an eight-strikeout performance which matched his season-high. Greinke saw the Yankees in early May and allowed three runs on three hits over four innings as he gifted them four walks.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Yankees: Miguel Andujar 3B (Questionable), Clint Frazier LF (Out), Aaron Hicks CF (Out).
Astros: Alex Bregman 3B (Out), Carlos Correa SS (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 5-0 in Greinke’s last five home starts vs. a team with a winning record. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Astros.
Moneyline pick
The Yankees stymied the league’s best offense last night and held the Astros to just three scoreless hits. Nestor Cortes was solid, but the bullpen also tossed 4 1-3 innings and allowed just one hit.
There was no Aroldis Chapman in the non-save situation, which is likely a good thing as the left-hander has been getting shelled of late, allowing eight runs in under three innings. If New York gets a lead late, Houston would be lucky to see Chapman, as the Yankees have a ton of solid options in the pen.
Getting a lead and keeping it to the late innings may be a lot to ask, even for Gerrit Cole. To say he is working through some things would be an understatement. He pitched to a 4.65 ERA in June and is coming off his shortest outing of the season, tossing just 80 pitches in a defeat to the Mets. New York has lost his last three starts and five of his last seven. The value to fade Cole may be drying up, but -115 for the Astros at home is still decent, especially with Zack Greinke on the mound.
The Astros are 13-5 SU when Greinke starts this year, and he has gone more than seven innings in four of his last seven starts. He may be wilting a bit in his 18th big league season, but his 1.12 WHIP proves he is still getting it done despite a decrease in strikeouts and an increase in FIP. His barrel and hard-hit percentages are both down from last year.
The Houston offense pulled a no-show last night managing just three hits, but this is still a club that is averaging 5.48 runs and 9.27 hits per game, which lead all of baseball. Houston managed two home runs off Cole when they faced him back in May and won that game 7-4. That was before the spin issues that Cole is dealing with and getting to see him another time is an advantage that swings to the home team.
New York came into Friday’s game looking to avenge a 2019 ALCS series-ending loss at Minute Maid Park and they accomplished that. We hope their vision was shortsighted and like the bounce-back spot here for the Astros.
The price is right at -115 and we aren’t afraid of the Yankees’ lineup, their starter, or their closer, if they do decide to bring Chapman in. Astros to the moon.
PREDICTION: Houston ML (-115)
Over/Under pick
The Over is 5-1 in Cole’s last six starts as the righty has been tattooed for nine long balls over that stretch. In his last 34 innings, Cole has been a shell of his former self, allowing 43 walks+hits. The Astros offense would love nothing more than to bounce back against the Yankees’ ace.
The Yankees’ offense scored just four runs last night but likely should have had a handful more. They finished with 13 hits but went 2 for 9 with RISP. In the four games against the Astros this year, the Bombers have put up a total of 21 runs as the Over is 3-1 in the four meetings.
The Yanks’ lineup will see Greinke at home where the veteran pitcher owns a 5.26 ERA across nine home starts. The Houston starter has also been susceptible to the long ball this year as his 1.21 HR/9 is the highest it’s been in four years, while nine of his 15 homers allowed have come at Minute Maid Park.
Aaron Judge has been starting to catch fire of late. The towering outfielder is 14 for 45 over the last two weeks with four home runs and a 1.011 OPS. His teammate, DJ LeMahieu, has also been solid for the last 14 days at the top of the order, where he is hitting .333 with a .845 OPS. The two were a combined 4 for 10 last night.
Losing Carlos Correa is a big blow for the Astros, but the shortstop was struggling at the dish and hitting just .175 over the last two weeks. There is still a lot of run-producing power in this lineup even without Correa and Alex Bregman.
We like the fact that the recreational bettor would look at this pitching matchup and think they are getting a great number of 8.5. The fact is, both starters have been driving the struggle bus and the middle of these orders can do some damage.
PREDICTION: Over 8.5 (-105)
Yankees vs Astros betting card
- Houston ML (-115)
- Over 8.5 (-105)
Picks made on 7/10/2021 at 6:30 a.m. ET
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