Yankees vs Blue Jays Predictions, Picks, Odds: Can Manoah Dominate New York Again?

The Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees have one of the most heated rivalries in baseball these days. And that gets ramped up even further now because the American League East is a beast.

The Blue Jays and Yankees open an epic four-game set in Toronto on Monday night. The Jays kicked off a 10-game homestand with a three-game sweep of the Atlanta Braves over the weekend, while the Yanks are coming off splitting four games with Tampa Bay Rays.

Toronto hands the ball to a struggling Alek Manoah in Game 1. But despite his current issues, Manoah has consistently dominated the Yanks during his short career. New York counters Manoah with opener Jimmy Cordero.

I break down the MLB odds and bring you my best bet in our free MLB picks and predictions for Yankees vs. Blue Jays.

Yankees vs Blue Jays odds

Yankees vs Blue Jays predictions

The Toronto Blue Jays swept the Atlanta Braves to bounce back from a tough road trip when they went 3-6. Now they’ll try for four straight victories when they open a key series with the New York Yankees.

The Jays hand the ball to Alek Manoah for the opener. If this was last season, the Blue Jays would look like a solid bet. But it isn’t 2022 anymore, the big right-hander is all too aware of that fact.

The 25-year-old has been battling his release point and command all season while his velocity takes a dip. And it's been costing him. Manoah is pitching to a 6.30 expected ERA while surrendering a .278 expected batting average to opponents. His walk rate has also more than doubled compared to last season.

Those control issues have been leading to quick exits for Manoah. He was second in quality starts during 2022. But it's been a struggle for him to get through five innings almost every time Manoah takes the mound. 

However, the X-factor on Monday is that this is the Yankees, a team Manoah has been dominating during his career. Manoah has posted a 1.93 ERA across seven career starts vs. the Bronx Bombers, and he's still excelled against them in 2023. He threw seven innings of two-hit shutout ball on April 22 in Yankees Stadium.

But based on the overall body of work from Manoah in 2023, it’s hard to believe he'll cruise past a quickly improving Yankees lineup.

New York may have split the last series with the Rays, but the coaching staff should be encouraged with what they've been seeing recently. The Yanks are plating 6.9 runs per game over the last seven contests. In May they rank seventh in batting average, third in OPS, and fourth in wRC+. That feels like a problem for Manoah right now.

But Aaron Boone might be getting a little cute with the Yankees' pitching on Monday. He’s handing the ball to Jimmy Cordero as an opener. The right-hander has been solid, but this will be his first opener spot of the year, and Boone will be happy to get two innings out of him.

Then he’ll turn to Jhony Brito for the bulk of the innings. The rookie was dealing during his first two starts, but he's fallen off the rails since while pitching to an 8.14 ERA and allowing opponents to hit .314 with a 1.047 OPS.

Boone is trying to break up Brito’s routine, but that may not matter against a dangerous Blue Jays lineup that just outbattled one of the best teams in baseball over three straight games. Toronto ranks eighth in batting average, 11th in OPS, and eighth in wRC+ this season, but it feels like the team isn't clicking on all cylinders yet. The Blue Jays should be able to do some damage against Brito in this matchup. 

The Bronx Bombers live up to their name and the Blue Jays bash. The Over 9.5 is the play here.

My best bet: Over 9.5 (-112 at Sports Interaction)

Yankees vs Blue Jays moneyline analysis

The Blue Jays opened this matchup against the Yankees as -160 home favorites, and they've been bet up to the -170 range throughout the day. The only reason Toronto is favored this much is because of Manoah’s track record against New York.

However, I’m not sure how anyone who watches the Blue Jays regularly would be comfortable laying that price with Manoah given the way he's been pitching this season. While I believe many of Manoah’s issues in 2023 are mental, he’s still so young that it could take him a while to rebound.

If he's unable to work deep into this game, it could get ugly (more praise for the Over). Blue Jays manager John Schneider would likely want to save his best arms for the remainder of a long four-game series. 

Meanwhile, even though Brito comes with some shaky numbers while emerging from the bullpen, the rest of the Yankees' relievers are reliable. The team ranks fourth in reliever ERA and sixth in strikeouts.

Could we see a vintage Manoah performance on Monday? Sure. But I’m not laying -170 while hoping that suddenly happens. Lean toward the Yankees and their hot bats as +145 underdogs, or stay away from the moneyline altogether.

Yankees vs Blue Jays Over/Under analysis

You know where I stand on the total. The number hit the board at 9 and the early money pushed it to 9.5. That also has me feeling good about the Over, even if we did miss the boat on the best number. Taking the Over on the alternate total of 10.5 at plus money is worth a look as well.

Yankees vs Blue Jays game info

Key pitchers

Jhony Brito (2-3, 5.81 ERA): Brito was one of the Yankees' top pitching prospects, but his first foray into the Big Leagues has been a little rough. The 25-year-old right-hander has surrendered 19 earned runs across 21 innings in 2022. He should be the bulk guy behind opener Cordero on Monday.

Alek Manoah (1-3, 4.83 ERA): It certainly looks like Manoah has regressed after a breakout campaign in 2022. He's been battling through most of his starts this season. One of the exceptions? Seven innings of shutout ball at Yankee Stadium on April 22.

Latest injuries

Trend to know

The Over is 8-0 during the Yankees' last eight games overall and 7-3 in the Blue Jays' previous 10 against a team with a winning record. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Blue Jays

Weather

Pages related to this topic