We have the second matchup of this three-game interleague series with the NL Central’s Milwaukee Brewers hosting the AL East’s New York Yankees. While the Yankees look to hold onto their division lead, the Brewers are fighting for their playoff lives.
With the game opening as a pick ‘em, which team will come out victorious? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Yankees vs Brewers on Saturday, September 17.
Yankees vs Brewers best odds
Yankees vs Brewers picks and predictions
Right-hander Jameson Taillon is taking the mound for the Yankees and looks like an excellent candidate to back. Allowing three or fewer runs in each of his last seven starts, he should be able to keep it going against Milwaukee.
Through 28 starts this season, Taillon is 13-4 with a 3.94 ERA and 1.13 WHIP, and furthermore gets to face a team he dominated back when he was on the Pirates. Over his last seven starts against Milwaukee, he boasts a 2.58 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. Across 54 career plate appearances against the right-hander, this current Brewers roster possesses a mere .240 BA, .380 SLG, and .283 wOBA.
Since August 1, Milwaukee ranks just 23rd in the league in BA when facing right-handed pitching. However, for the line we are targeting in this game, we will need more help from this Yankees team besides Taillon: Following Taillon is one of the better bullpens in baseball. New York’s relief pitching ranks fifth in the league in ERA, eighth in WHIP, seventh in BA, third in SLG, sixth in wOBA, and ninth in FIP.
In this contest, we’re fading the Brewers’ offense. Taillon has been in good form, this Milwaukee lineup has struggled against him, and the Yankees’ bullpen has been spectacular over the past few months.
My best bet: Brewers team total Under 3.5 (-120 at DraftKings)
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Yankees vs Brewers betting preview
Jump to:
•Side analysis •Over/Under analysis •Starting pitchers •Injuries •Weather •Trend to know
Moneyline analysis
The reason we re fading the Brewers’ offense specifically instead of just taking New York’s moneyline is because of Milwaukee’s projected starting pitcher, right-hander Brandon Woodruff. Through 23 starts, he’s 10-4 with a 3.39 ERA and 1.12 WHIP.
Woodruff’s metrics suggest that regression should not be an issue in this contest. This year, he boasts a .282 xwOBA, .217 xBA, and .352 xSLG.
Additionally, only Josh Donaldson and Giancarlo Stanton have hit against Woodruff before, so it may take a few rotations through the batting order for this lineup to figure him out. Since August 1, the Yankees rank just 24th in the league in BA, 22nd in SLG, 23rd in OPS, and 23rd in wOBA when facing right-handed pitchers.
Because of Woodruff’s strong pitching and New York’s inconsistency against right-handed pitchers, I’m staying away from the Yankees’ moneyline.
Over/Under analysis
As you can probably guess by now, I would lean towards taking the Under in this game. Both pitchers are excellent and both lineups are inconsistent against right-handed pitching.
So, why not take the Under? I do not trust the Brewers’ bullpen at all.
Since August 1, Milwaukee’s relief pitching ranks just 18th in the league in ERA, 23rd in SLG, 18th in wOBA, and 23rd in FIP. Additionally, even facing Woodruff, this Yankees’ offense is capable of exploding at any time with the number of powerful bats they possess.
In a Taillon/Woodruff duel, I would lean towards taking the Under but I would rather just fade the Brewers’ hitting.
Yankees vs Brewers game info
• Location: American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI
• Date: Saturday, September 17, 2022
• First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
• TV: YES, Bally Sports Wisconsin
Starting pitchers
Jameson Taillon (13-4, 3.94 ERA): Making his 29th start of the season for New York, right-hander Taillon will look to continue his strong campaign in his second year with this club. Not only has he had a good season, but Taillon enters this contest in good form.
Over his last four starts, he's 2-0 with a 3.54 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. The former No. 2 overall pick boasts a six-pitch arsenal and does a tremendous job utilizing all of his pitches, as he throws none more than 36% of the time. This unpredictability can be frustrating for hitters, which has proven to be the case time and again this season.
Brandon Woodruff (10-4, 3.39 ERA): Right-hander Brandon Woodruff is slated to take the mound in a big game for this Milwaukee club. Making his 24th start of the season, Woodruff will try to continue yet another tremendous year serving as the Brewers’ “second-ace”. Like Taillon, Woodruff does an excellent job in utilizing all five pitches in his arsenal, which creates unpredictability for opposing hitters.
Key injuries
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Betting trend to know
Taillon has allowed three or fewer earned runs in each of his last seven starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Brewers
