The New York Yankees have now lost three of their last four after a crushing loss to the Milwaukee Brewers in extra innings on Friday, and will send Carlos Rodon to the hill to be the stopper on Saturday in hopes of avoiding their first series loss in a couple weeks.
Will journeyman Joe Ross present some hope here for the Yankees, or will their bats remain in flux?
Let's dive right into it with my Yankees vs. Brewers predictions and MLB picks on Saturday, April 27.
Yankees vs Brewers prediction
My best bet
Yankees moneyline (-112 at DraftKings)
My analysis
When you look at Carlos Rodon’s underlying numbers, not much sticks out. He’s pitched well below his 3.72 expected ERA and his strikeout numbers have dipped once again after last season. He’s also pitched to just a 35.9% ground-ball rate, which generally would be of concern for a pitcher who’s searching for strikeouts.
Well, Rodon hasn’t been a ground ball pitcher for five years, and while his strikeouts did well to help him out from 2021-22, his expected batting average this season sits at a relatively low .231, and he’s allowed just three barrels in 78 batted balls this year, a testament to the soft contact he’s inducing.
Rodon hasn’t been nearly as bad as the gap between his xERA and real ERA would show, and it’s just been walks that have really inflated his expected number. The Brewers are walking at a 9.5% clip this season, sure, but that number’s come down a bit over the last week and, on top of that, they’re struggling to do damage against lefties to this point with just a 78 wRC+ in the split.
I have enough faith here in Rodon to keep rounding into form after a 2023 season that was mostly lost due to injury, and on the flip side, I think Joe Ross should struggle in this matchup.
Yes, he’s rolled up plenty of ground balls, but he’s walked 9.9% of batters and the Yankees do grade out as one of the most patient teams at the plate over the last few seasons. They’ve also converted more ground balls into expected hits this season and have actually hit their best against ground-ball pitchers this season with a .250 batting average and .734 OPS.
I like the Yankees here on the road. You’re getting a steep discount on account of both players’ expected numbers, but I think the matchup does well to calm those fears.
Yankees vs Brewers same-game parlay (SGP)
Yankees moneyline
Anthony Volpe to record a hit
Anthony Rizzo to record a hit
Carlos Rodon 6+ strikeouts
I’m going to get a little cute here in the hopes of getting this parlay into a manageable range by taking three props in chorus with Yankees moneyline.
I like both Anthonys in the Yankees lineup to get hits here. The total bases props are a bit trying when you consider Ross rolls up a bevy of ground balls, but both of these guys have excelled when putting the ball on the ground, hitting .325 and .276, respectively, on grounders. Anthony Volpe himself has 13 ground-ball hits in 40 at-bats, and Anthony Rizzo eight in 29 at-bats. The way in here for the Yankees should be a collection of base hits, and while both men have struggled, this is a great spot for them to bounce back.
Then, I’m going to read the line here and go with Rodon to have a nice strikeout day. I won’t be brave enough to go for his set total of 6.5, given the low strikeout totals, but it’s important to note here that Milwaukee is striking out a whopping 25.9% of the time against southpaws this season. The total is high for a reason.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Yankees vs Brewers odds
Yankees vs Brewers live odds
Yankees vs Brewers opening odds
- Run line: New York -1.5 (+130) | Milwaukee +1.5 (-155)
- Moneyline: New York -135 | Milwaukee +115
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-110) | Under 8.5 (-110)
Yankees vs Brewers spread and Over/Under analysis
- I’m not quite sure what to make of this line movement, but we’ve seen a ton of wild swings. The Brewers opened up at +120 here, and after some slight fluctuation they have plummeted as low as -101, sitting right around a pick ‘em for most of the afternoon on Saturday.
- The total has been at 8.5 for the majority of the betting window, with a brief move down to eight runs.
- DraftKings is reporting that 80% of the bets and 80% of the cash are on the Yankees, while 43% of the bets and just 34% of the handle is on the Over.
Yankees vs Brewers trend
The Yankees have covered the Run Line in 14 of their last 20 away games (+9.00 Units / 35% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Brewers
Yankees vs Brewers game info
| Location: | American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI |
| Date: | Saturday, 4-27-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | YES, BSWI |
| Yankees starting pitcher: | Carlos Rodon (1-1, 3.66 ERA) |
| Brewers starting pitcher: | Joe Ross (1-1, 4.91 ERA) |
Yankees vs Brewers latest injuries
Yankees vs Brewers weather
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