It's a matchup of two of the most famous names in baseball when the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Yankees wrap up a three-game series on Sunday Night Baseball.
Last night, behind solid pitching and an unlikely performance from Jake Bauers, the Yankees tied the series. That means it's all up for grabs when the pair meet tonight. The win for New York gave them their fourth in the last six games, allowing them to make some headway in the AL East race. The Dodgers have also played better, and now find themselves tied atop the NL West.
Read on for my best bet and full MLB picks and predictions for Yankees vs. Dodgers on Sunday, June 4.
Yankees vs Dodgers odds
Yankees vs Dodgers predictions
Today is full fade Domingo German day. Ultimately, I landed on the Dodgers first five innings moneyline as my best bet because L.A. has a decisive pitching advantage.
Young Bobby Miller will take the mound for his third career start, and he's done enough for me to place my faith in him. There is stardom potential here, but even a less bullish perspective would say the eye test is impressive. Miller has flashed, painting the corners with 100+ mph stuff, and he's already worked his way through the most remarkable offense in baseball in the Atlanta Braves. Against them, he surrendered just one earned run in five innings of baseball.
That was his first major league start ever. That's not something that everyone is doing. From a more in-the-weeds angle, Miller's slider (one of his most heavily used pitches) could give the Yankees batters issues. Depending on the lineup they roll out today, the Yankees may only have one player batting above league average against it.
The other part of this is the more significant one. I hate this matchup for German. For starters, he's a pitcher that can struggle with location from time to time (hence my Over 1.5 walks bet), and he hasn't been challenged in this respect as he could be. German has a league-average walk-to-strikeout ratio despite facing just one team that ranks in the Bottom 10 in swing rate. In other words, this is a stat that could become much worse.
The last team German faced was the Seattle Mariners, and he labored heavily against them, surrendering three walks and four earned runs through six innings. That could have just been the tip of the iceberg for what we'll see today. Why? Because the Dodgers are the most patient team at the plate in baseball, and pace the majors in swing rate.
Another aspect of this matchup I hate for German is a combination of factors. His biggest issue has been the hard-hit rate and/or barrel rate. He ranks below the Bottom 20% of both metrics, and gets a matchup that ranks in the Top 6 of baseball in both metrics. The Dodgers also punish off-speed pitches, particularly the curveball (the most-thrown pitch for German). The lineup that the Dodgers will likely have a lineup of four players that bat over .300 against it this season, with Will Smith, Mookie Betts, and J.D. Martinez posting hard-hit rates above 55% against it.
In total, I'll have four wagers today:
Dodgers first five moneyline at -141 for one unit (projected -170)
Dodgers full game moneyline at -145 for one unit (projected -158)
German Over 1.5 walks at -140 for a half unit
German Over 2.5 earned runs at -120 for a half unit
Of these wagers, the Dodgers first five moneyline is the best. My projections agree, pricing it at -170. That's a massive edge and one that I'll happily grab tonight.
My best bet: Dodgers first five moneyline (-141 at BetRivers)
Yankees vs Dodgers same-game parlay
Dodgers first five moneyline
Dodgers full game moneyline
Will Smith Over 1.5 total bases
My same-game parlay combines my best bet with the continual theme of picking on German. So we will parlay the first five moneyline with the full-game money for +125, and then throw in a hitter with the best matchup against German.
I mentioned the curveball pitch being key to this matchup. It's the pitch German throws the most, but it's also one that the Dodgers smash. So why not take the player who hits it the best to go Over 1.5 bases?
Smith has destroyed curveballs this season with a .500 batting average against them. To help our cause, he's been hot lately, going Over 1.5 bases in about half of his last 30 games, and exactly half of his previous 10. So his matchup is a great one tonight.
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Yankees vs Dodgers moneyline and Over/Under analysis
I've made it apparent that I expect the Dodgers to win today. The pitching advantage is strong, but the most significant aspect of my handicap is simply the matchup issue for German. Not only will the Dodgers lineup attack his weaknesses, but it'll also be the first team that's been able to check all those boxes he's faced so far. I think he responds poorly.
The Dodgers have been the best team in baseball after a loss this season. They are at a fairly historic rate in that regard. L.A. has won 73% of its games after a loss this season, going 17-6. If the season were to end today, that mark would be the best clip since the Dodgers last did it in 2020 (77%), and the second-best overall since at least 2008.
With temperatures in the 80s, winds blowing out, and two reasonably high flyball teams, the Over is certainly worth a look. My number is 9, and that's what we have. I'll be monitoring the game for a potential live play too.
I'd also lean toward the Dodgers team total Over. I'm not going to bet it, as I don't want to be any more overextended, but it makes sense given the above handicap. There's also such a small sample size with Miller that it's hard to say too much with conviction.
The best bet in this game is trusting the offensive prowess of the Dodgers against a pitcher who gives into their strengths. I've done that, and a bet on the Over here would continue that theme.
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Trend to know
The Los Angeles Dodgers have won 73% of their games following a loss this season. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Dodgers
Yankees vs Dodgers game info
| Location: | Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Sunday, June 4, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Starting pitchers
Domingo German (3-3, 3.98 ERA): Yankee fans should be happy with the production they've gotten from German this season. I've picked on him in this article, and I expect him to struggle today. But to this point, he's been a solid secondary option. He'll come into today off a solid May, where he posted an ERA below 3.00. His start was rough against the Seattle Mariners, where he was smacked around for four earned runs, but before then, he had given up just one earned run in his previous two starts combined.
Bobby Miller (2-0, 1.64 ERA): The career arc for Miller looks very promising because of his range of pitches and the velocity he can mix in them. The former Louisville Cardinal has a four-seam fastball that has averaged nearly 100 mph per pitch in his previous two starts. That's one part of his game that has Dodger fans salivating at his potential. He came into this start off a six-inning appearance against the Washington Nationals, where he allowed just one earned run.
