It’s spooky season, and there's some scary good value in the MLB player props market on October 18 for Game 4 of the ALCS between the New York Yankees and the Cleveland Guardians.
What’s scarier than two pitchers taking the mound for the first time in more than a month, with one having to face a hot Aaron Judge? Not much, and I explain why below!
Also, make sure to check out our full Yankees vs. Guardians predictions!
Yankees vs Guardians ALCS Game 4 props
- Williams o1.5 ER (-115 at DraftKings)
- Judge o0.5 RBI (+150 at bet365)
- Gil o2.5 BB (+150 at bet365)
Picks made on 10-18 at 1:15 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
Yankees vs Guardians props
Prop bet #1: Gavin Williams Over 1.5 earned runs
Postseason baseball always creates intriguing pitching scenarios, and Game 4 of the ALCS is just the latest as the Cleveland Guardians hand the ball to Gavin Williams.
The second-year righty will make his first appearance since September 22. Williams missed the first half of the season with a right elbow injury and has generally struggled since joining the Guardians rotation in July.
The 25-year-old made 16 starts in the second half, pitching to a 4.14 xERA while surrendering a .248 opponent BA. Those ranked in the 41st and 38th percentiles among MLB pitchers.
The 6-foot-6 starter has a high-velocity fastball which he throws more than 50% of the time. Unfortunately for him, he doesn’t always locate it the best, and opponents have teed off on it for a .278 xBA and a .421 xSLG.
In true October fashion, he must deal with a New York Yankees lineup looking scarier with each game. The quietly dangerous Juan Soto, the exorcism of Aaron Judge’s postseason demons, and Giancarlo Stanton rising from the grave.
Williams has surrendered two or more earned runs in nine of his last 13 starts, and while Game 3 was a tough loss for the Yankees, if they refocus quickly, they’ll have a chance to jump on Williams early in this matchup.
Give me the Over 1.5 on his earned runs allowed to kick off my MLB picks tonight.
Prop bet #2: Aaron Judge Over 0.5 RBI
Don’t let Aaron Judge get hot!
All everyone could talk about was how the Yankees star outfielder was a postseason bust, but the former MVP is slaying those demons in the biggest way possible.
Judge has hits in three of his last four outings, with home runs in back-to-back. None were bigger than a game-tying two-run home run in the top of the eighth off of Cleveland Guardians super closer Emmanuel Clase.
The Yankees slugger did what he does best when he’s locked in: protect the whole plate and use all parts of the field.
You saw that on last night’s dinger when he took a low-and-away fastball from Clase over the right-field wall. While New York didn’t win the game, you saw how important that hit was for him.
With Gavin Williams on deck, I like Judge to stay hot. As noted, Williams has struggled and uses his fastball a lot. This isn’t a recipe for success vs. Judge, who had a .342 xBA and a .788 xSLG vs. four-seamers.
And it didn’t work out for him when they faced off at Yankee Stadium back on August 22, and Judge took Williams deep.
Judge also has at least one RBI in each of the first three games of this ALCS. With the matchup against Williams and the way batters like Juan Soto have been getting on base ahead of him, at this number, I’m backing Judge to drive in another run tonight.
Prop bet #3: Luis Gil Over 2.5 walks
Gavin Williams won’t be the only starter in this pivotal ALCS matchup coming off a long layoff.
The Yankees will hand the ball to Luis Gil for Game 4, who hasn’t been on the mound since Sept. 28 when he gave up six runs on six hits against the Pittsburgh Pirates.
This season has been a wild ride for the 26-year-old RHP. Gil stormed out of the gates this season, overpowering hitters with his fastball. He had a 2.03 ERA — striking out 10.8 batters per nine innings over his first 14 starts — and was the favorite to win the AL Rookie Of the Year for a while.
But since then, he's fluctuated between wicked and wild, and over his final nine starts, his ERA ballooned to 4.47 while his Ks dipped to 9.5 per nine.
The only thing consistent about Gil has been his wild stuff. His fastball is great but he can’t control it all the time, resulting in a lot of walks. Gil ranked in the seventh percentile in walk rate, giving out free passes to 12.1% of batters faced.
The N.Y. hurler has walked three or more batters 14 times over 29 starts this season, including handing out a whopping six free passes in a game against the Guardians back on August 20.
The Yankees bullpen has seen a lot of action over the first three games of this series, so Aaron Boone must be hoping for at least five innings from his starter. I’m betting that means more walks, and at solid plus money, I’m willing to take the Over 2.5.
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