The scene shifts to Ohio tonight as we get Game 3 of the ALCS between the New York Yankees and the Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field.
New York has looked dominant this postseason and has stayed that way in this series. In Games 1 and 2, the Yankees took control early and never looked back. I expect things to stay the same tonight as New York has yet another decisive advantage this evening.
Read on for my Yankees vs. Guardians predictions and MLB picks for Thursday, October 17. And don't miss Rohit Ponnaiya's Yankees vs. Guardians prop bets.
Yankees vs Guardians prediction
Who will win Yankees vs Guardians Game 3?
The Yankees. This series feels over, and New York has demonstrated its regular-season dominance of Cleveland early on.
There are many reasons, and some of that is New York's postseason experience. Previous ALCS failures have hardened the Yankees and made them better.
However, more than that, New York has thrown out a starting pitcher mismatch in each game, and this one is no different. Offensively, the rosters aren't very close, and the Guardians' usually outsized bullpen advantage has been felt less because New York has had an otherworldly postseason. It's hard to see much of that changing here.
My Yankees vs Guardians best bet
Yankees moneyline
-120 at bet365
My analysis
I played the New York Yankees to get a sweep after Game 2 at around a price of +260 and would still play it today after the market has moved towards me.
From top-to-bottom, the Yankees team is better than what the Cleveland Guardians can put on the field. It has yet another starting pitcher advantage tonight, so I am making my best bet the Yankees moneyline. I priced this at -132, so I'm happy to grab it at -120.
Clarke Schmidt takes the mound for New York tonight, and despite what hasn't always been friendly treatment from the Bronx faithful, he's had a solid season. It could have been better, and there are issues in his game, but he's well-suited to succeed against Cleveland.
The often plate-disciplined Guardians have abandoned that approach this postseason. They've chased offense and consequently have chased at pitches outside the zone. In this postseason, they've chased just over 40% of the time, the second most of any team that made the playoffs (just behind the Atlanta Braves). That's a big jump from the regular season, and it plays directly into Schmidt's hands as he's a pitcher who relies on strikeouts and chases outside the zone.
Given what we've seen in these playoffs, expect him to get a considerable amount of whiffs outside the zone, which will establish some control in this matchup.
On the other side of things is Matthew Boyd pitching for the Guardians. Over the past two seasons, we've seen an uptick in his hard-hit rate issues. Last season, he sat near the bottom of baseball at around a 40% clip. He hasn't made enough appearances this year to properly qualify, but if he did, he'd be in a similar spot. As I've noted all season, that's an issue when facing the Yankees.
What makes things worse is when you are in tandem with a pitcher who leans on the fastball a lot. Boyd does that with the pitch, making up nearly 40% of his arsenal. Add in the fact that one of the hardest-hitting players on the New York roster — Giancarlo Stanton — is going as well as he is, and this feels like nothing but trouble for Boyd.
He may not last long in this game, but it should be enough for New York to take advantage. After that, I expect to ride that advantage into a bullpen that delivers again.
Yankees vs Guardians same-game parlay (SGP)
Yankees moneyline
Over 3.5 F5
Under 8.5
This is a simple play on the prevailing themes that we've seen throughout this series: a Guardians starting pitcher getting roughed up, the Yankees take the lead, and both bullpens prove impressive in the later stages. I played some alternate numbers because I saw more value in those numbers, but there's value in this logic in any capacity.
The Yankees should be able to get a few runs across on Boyd because of his issues with the hard-hit ball. Seeing the Guardians chip one across to help wouldn't be shocking. After that, two well-rested bullpens should take command of the game.
These bullpens have been ridiculous. One, in New York, has allowed two earned runs all postseason, and the other was the best in the regular season.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Yankees vs Guardians odds
Yankees vs Guardians live odds
Yankees vs Guardians opening odds
- Moneyline: New York -125 | Cleveland +105
- Run line: New York -1.5 | Cleveland +1.5
- Over/Under: Over 7 | Under 7
Yankees vs Guardians moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- The Yankees have dominated this series recently with eight wins in the last 10 head-to-head meetings, including four straight.
- The Yankees have won four straight postseason games and seven of their last 10 overall.
- The Guardians are 4-6 across their last 10 games, losing bettors nearly three units in that period.
Yankees vs Guardians trend
The Yankees have covered the Run Line in 50 of their last 83 away games (+19.10 Units / 18% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Guardians.
Yankees vs Guardians Game 3 info
| Location: | Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH |
| Date: | Thursday, 10-17-2024 |
| First pitch: | 5:08 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TBS |
| Yankees starting pitcher: | Clarke Schmidt (2024 postseason: 0-0, 3.86 ERA) |
| Guardians starting pitcher: | Matthew Boyd (2024 postseason: 0-0, 0.00 ERA) |
Yankees vs Guardians latest injuries
Yankees vs Guardians weather
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