Yankees vs Orioles Predictions, Picks, Odds: Backing the Arms at Camden Yards

These two teams can hit, but the pitching matchup offers some reasons to expect a low-scoring game.

The New York Yankees and Baltimore Orioles have played two very competitive games to open up their weekend series at Camden Yards, and the rubber match promises to be another cracking affair. Two talented pitchers will get the ball against some of the hottest offenses around.

Without further ado, let’s break down Yankees vs. Orioles in our MLB picks and predictions below.

Yankees vs Orioles odds

Yankees vs Orioles predictions

Let’s spend a moment here talking about Tyler Wells, who will start for the Orioles on Sunday. He’s fresh off a solid start against the Rangers which saw him spin five innings of no-hit ball with two strikeouts.

That was yet another step forward for the 28-year-old in his third season in the Big Leagues, considering he’s been surprisingly effective under the surface despite a 4.07 career ERA to this point.

Wells owned a 3.80 xERA last season and a 3.60 xERA the season before. While he’s never been much of a strikeout arm, the righty has done an excellent job of not putting runners on base via the walk with just a 6% rate through 165 2/3 innings and his ground ball rate has increased with each passing season all the way to 42.9% in his first outing of the year.

I think there are some reasons to be optimistic about Wells here, who did have a couple of good starts against the New York Yankees early last year where he allowed just two runs in each. All in all, he finished with a respectable 4.26 ERA in four starts vs. one of the better lineups in baseball.

I’m really liking the Under here at the newly-renovated and extra spacious Camden Yards. Nestor Cortes has proven to be one of the best hurlers in the AL and will likely force Gunnar Henderson, a lefty, out of the lineup.

The Baltimore Orioles set up much better against right-handers and is already at a disadvantage against a guy who owned a 26.5% strikeout rate last year with an excellent 2.70 xERA.

My best bet: Under 8 (-117 at FanDuel)

Yankees vs Orioles moneyline analysis

The pricing here is pretty accurate, and with that, I’d definitely pick the Yankees to win. While I’m very confident in Cortes against his former team and love the story the underlying numbers tell with Wells, I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t slightly worried about the righty.

New York is seventh in wRC+ and continues to produce runs even when its offense is having an off night. The Yankees weren’t exactly the sharpest on Saturday with just seven hits but managed to scratch across four runs thanks to a timely triple from Anthony Volpe which sparked a miniature rally in the fifth capped off by a Giancarlo Stanton homer.

The Yankees are a lot more dangerous at the plate than I could have imagined after a relatively quiet offseason, and because of that, I have to say they’re the team more likely to emerge victorious here.

Yankees vs Orioles Over/Under analysis

While the Orioles are just a couple of spots below the Yankees in terms of run production this season with a ninth-ranked 114 wRC+, I don’t think we can stress enough how big of a loss Henderson will be, if he is indeed benched for the right-handed hitting Ramon Urias at third.

The Orioles did touch up the last lefty they faced, but that was Andrew Heaney. Cortes just held a talented Phillies offense to one run over five innings last time out and didn’t walk a batter. He’s going to give little away here, and he’s also been an Under machine away from Yankee Stadium. The Under is 3-0-1 in Cortes’ last four starts on the road.

The Under is also 5-3 in Yankees games this season and it’s 3-2 in the last five for the Orioles. It’s also worth noting once again here that the Orioles moved the left-field fence back at Camden by 26.5 feet and also raised the wall. Stanton was able to go up and over for a homer last night, but that should definitely keep runs at a premium.

Yankees vs Orioles game info

Yankees vs Orioles betting preview

Starting pitchers

Nestor Cortes (1-0, 1.80 ERA): The lefty could have had a better season debut, but we’ll give him a pass given the strength of his opponent. Cortes was one of the very best pitchers in the AL last season with a 2.44 ERA, which earned him a place in the All-Star Game. The former Orioles reliever is now a bonafide front-end starter, boasting a low .257 xwOBA last year in 158 1/3 innings. 

Tyler Wells (0-0, 0.00 ERA): Wells came out of college in 2016 and hasn’t really pitched much at the minor-league level. That’s not because he was hot-shotted to the majors, rather he had to undergo Tommy John surgery in 2019 and sacrifice most of his development. He owned a 4.25 ERA last season with the Orioles, his third season at the major-league level. He’s a very sturdy arm for the back end of your rotation.

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The Yankees are 47-19 in the last 66 meetings in Baltimore. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Orioles

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