A hotly contested division will feature what one would expect to be a hotly contested series when the Tampa Bay Rays welcome the New York Yankees to town.
This three-game set is a big opportunity for the Rays to make up some ground in the division and for the Yankees to separate themselves. Tampa has been hot recently as winners of five of its last six games, all of which have come at home. New York has been hot, too, with, oddly enough, an identical record in its last six games.
Our Yankees vs. Rays prediction forgoes a side or total, instead focusing our MLB pick on a player prop for Friday, May 10.
Yankees vs Rays prediction
My best bet
Taj Bradley Under 5.5 strikeouts (-152 at FanDuel)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Taj Bradley is back for the Tampa Bay Rays. The young righty is healed from a pectoral strain and set to make his season debut here today. Last season was an up-and-down rookie year for Bradley. He showed massive strides of brilliance that included impressive strikeout numbers, but the result was an ERA that finished the season at over five.
Today's handicap is centered around that strikeout prop. Bradley posted strikeout numbers of seven and eight in his two rehab appearances in the minors leading up to this one. But given this is the first appearance of the season, along with some other elements, this number is a bit high. I projected a strikeout number of 4.3 and, consequently, see value on the Under of 5.5.
Practically nobody has been striking out the New York Yankees lately. Over its last three games, the Yankees have managed to put up a 14% strikeout rate, the league's lowest in that period. It's something that manager Aaron Boone has mentioned frequently, and there are tangible things on the plate that the Yankees are doing to lower their strikeout percentage. That makes you think this is more sustainable than just a random blip in the road. I'm expecting it to carry over here.
Some of this is about his opponent, but much of this is about Bradley making his first start after an injury. The second-year man has no pitch count, but you'd have to imagine that Tampa isn't eager to push him too deep here. Based on historical data, I projected him to see 18.6 batters, which would favor the Under.
The public perception of Bradley's impressive swing-and-miss rate a season ago has moved this number up too much. This is still a young pitcher making his first career start against the Yankees in his first post-injury appearance. That same team has been making contact at the league's highest rate recently, and consequently, all of these elements make this number a little too high.
Yankees vs Rays same-game parlay (SGP)
Taj Bradley Under 5.5 strikeouts
Under 8
We're paring our best bet with the Under 8. Consequently, we're getting a nice multiplier with the noncorrelation. This is strictly a projection play; my total here was 7.4 runs, giving me a slight value on this number. While I expect Bradley to find some trouble, he can do a decent enough job of keeping the runs down. On the other hand, three straight starts for Yankees pitcher Clarke Schmidt have gone under. I'll follow the data here.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Yankees vs Rays odds
Yankees vs Rays live odds
Yankees vs Rays opening odds
- Run line: New York -1.5 (+134) | Tampa Bay +1.5 (-162)
- Moneyline: New York -126 | Tampa Bay +108
- Over/Under: Over 8| Under 8
Yankees vs Rays spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Yankees remain profitable after the strong start of the season. Bettors are up +1.86 units in New York for the season. The same can be said for Tampa Bay, even if only slightly, as bettors are up +.61 units on the season backing the Rays.
- There has been no real head-to-head edge on either the total or the side when these two teams meet, illustrating how tight most of the matchups have been. The Yankees have a slight 6-4 advantage over the Rays in their last ten head-to-head meetings, while the total is an even 5-5.
- One of the most impressive notes on either team is how impressive the Yankees have been on the road in 2024. Over its 20 road games, bettors have managed an amazing 35% ROI when betting the Yankees on the run line.
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Yankees vs Rays trend
The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 25 away games (+11.45 Units / 42% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Rays.
Yankees vs Rays game info
| Location: | Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, FL |
| Date: | Friday, 5-10-2024 |
| First pitch: | 6:50 p.m. ET |
| TV: | YES, BSSUN |
| Yankees starting pitcher: | Clarke Schmidt (3-1, 3.50 ERA) |
| Rays starting pitcher: | Taj Bradley (0-0, 0.00 ERA) |
Yankees vs Rays latest injuries
Yankees vs Rays weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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