The third installment of this four-game AL East series gets underway Wednesday evening with the fourth-place Boston Red Sox hosting the fifth-place New York Yankees.
New York swept Tuesday’s doubleheader, winning both games by a combined score of 7-3.
Will the Yankees take care of business once again, or can the Red Sox bounce-back at Fenway Park? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Yankees vs Red Sox on Wednesday, September 13.
Yankees vs Red Sox odds
Yankees vs Red Sox predictions
Right-hander Clarke Schmidt is a fine fade candidate as he gets the ball for the New York Yankees. Through 29 appearances, Schmidt possesses a 4.54 ERA and 1.32 WHIP.
His underlying metrics are also underwhelming, ranking in the 48th percentile or lower in xBA, average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit percentage. The right-hander also ranks in the 45th percentile or lower in both K% and whiff rate, which is the avenue that we will take to bet against Schmidt in this contest.
Currently, you can find his strikeout prop at 4.5, a number he has stayed Under in 10 of his past 17 starts. These strikeout woes are likely to continue against the Boston Red Sox, a team against whom he has recorded four or fewer strikeouts two of his three career starts.
While Boston’s season has not gone entirely as planned, it is certainly not its lineup’s fault. Entering this game, the Red Sox rank in the Top 7 of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, batting average, slugging, and OPS.
This lineup also does a good job at avoiding strikeouts, ranking seventh in K% when facing right-handed pitching. Looking at Wednesday’s projected starting lineup, five of the nine hitters possess a strikeout rate south of 20% this year.
This strikeout avoidance is likely to continue against Schmidt, a pitcher whom this current Boston lineup possesses a mere 19.4 Whiff% against through 60 career plate appearances.
My best bet: Clarke Schmidt Under 4.5 strikeouts (+116 at FanDuel)
Yankees vs Red Sox same-game parlay
Clarke Schmidt Under 4.5 strikeouts
Over 10
Red Sox moneyline
Not only should Schimdt serve as a solid fade candidate in this matchup, but Red Sox right-hander Tanner Houck may also struggle. Through 17 starts, he is 4-9 with a 5.28 ERA and 1.34 WHIP.
His underlying metrics suggest that positive regression is unlikely as he ranks in the bottom half of the league in expected batting average, average exit velocity and hard-hit rate. With that said, he profiles similarly to Schmidt.
Boston also features the stronger lineup, so it should be able to fend off New York in what is shaping up to be a high-scoring affair.
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Yankees vs Red Sox moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Red Sox opened as a -120 favorite and were quickly bet up to their current price of -124. I only expect this line to keep moving in their favor considering their much stronger lineup and a relatively even pitching matchup.
That brings us to the total, which opened at 10 and remains at that number. That is a fairly big number, but with how many high-scoring games the Red Sox find themselves in every night combined with this pitching matchup, it would not be too surprising if the market moves it to 10.5 before first pitch.
There have now been 10 or more total runs scored in 20 of Boston’s past 25 games. With that said, New York’s weak lineup would likely cause buy-back if the market does move.
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Trend to know
Schmidt has recorded four or fewer strikeouts in 10 of his past 17 starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Red Sox
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Yankees vs Red Sox game info
| Location: | Fenway Park, Boston, MA |
| Date: | Wednesday, September 13, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MLB Network |
Starting pitchers
Clarke Schmidt (9-8, 4.54 ERA): It has not been the smoothest sailing for Schmidt this season, and his underlying metrics suggest things will not get much better over the final few weeks. Currently, he ranks in the 48th percentile or lower in xBA, average exit velocity, Barrel% and Hard-Hit%. Through seven career appearances against Boston, he is 0-1 with a 4.03 ERA.
Tanner Houck (4-9, 5.28 ERA): The 27-year-old has also struggled this season, posting similar metrics to Schmidt. Entering this contest in particularly shaky form, Houck is 1-1 with a 7.84 ERA over his past two starts. With that said, he is 2-2 with a 2.39 ERA through 11 career appearances against the Yankees.
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