It's another edition of a rivalry renewed when the New York Yankees meet the Boston Red Sox tonight.
New York will see this series as a chance to catch some momentum, but Boston will have other things in store. They, too, will be looking for a playoff push, and my Red Sox vs. Yankees picks that makes for a tense opener.
Read on for my free MLB picks for Friday, July 26th.
Yankees vs Red Sox prediction
My best bet
Under 9.5 (-115 at DraftKings)
My analysis
There's not much justification for the Yankees to be favored on any night against teams in the top half of baseball. The problem, of course, is you could easily make the same case for the Red Sox.
With that in mind, I'm betting on mediocrity to continue between the two teams and grabbing the Under for my best bet. I also see an edge on it in my projections, pricing the total at 8.5.
Let's start with the pitchers. Nestor Cortes has been unlucky. Regression was coming after last season's strides, but this has been too much.
Consider this: Cortes has given up over five runs in back-to-back starts but still holds an expected ERA just below 3.5, which is good for the Top 25% of baseball. I like him to have success this evening.
When Cortes has success, he's getting chased, and he's getting swings with misses. In his first meeting with Boston, he went going six innings, allowing just one earned run. It makes sense, too. The Red Sox have the sixth-highest whiff rate in baseball and the tenth-highest chase rate.
On the other side is Brayan Bello for the Red Sox. He's had a rough season, but his talent is evident; there's a lot to like in his matchup against the Yankees. Like his counterpart, Bello has been unlucky this season and, in addition, gets a lot of chase with swings for misses.
That's a problem for New York, who have been chasing pitches more and more over the last month.
Add in the fact that Bello's accurate measure of success is how well he can induce ground balls — ranking elite in that category — and you like how things shape up for the youngster. New York has had the ninth-highest ground ball rate in the majors throughout the season, a mark that has only gone up lately.
Each pitcher has favorable matchups, and each offense has had its fair share of slumping over the last few weeks. That all points to a low-scoring affair.
Yankees vs Red Sox same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 9.5
Red Sox +1.5
It may not be the sexiest of same-game parlay options, but it still has some value. We're pairing the Red Sox +1.5 with our best bet in what amounts to a fairly correlated same-game parlay.
I like the matchup more for the Red Sox offense against Cortes than I do for the Yankees. Cortes still has some massive issues giving up the hard-hit ball, and even throughout its rough stretch, Boston has smashed the ball with a barrel rate, exit velocity, and hard-hit rate, all ranking in the Top 5.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Yankees vs Red Sox odds
Yankees vs Red Sox live odds
Yankees vs Red Sox opening odds
- Run line: NYY -1.5 (+122) | BOS +1.5 (-146)
- Moneyline: NYY -126 | BOS +108
- Over/Under: Over 9.5 | Under 9.5
Yankees vs Red Sox spread and Over/Under analysis
- Recently, this has been a highly competitive matchup, with the two teams splitting their last 10 head-to-head meetings.
- The Over has followed a similar path in that stretch, with the total going 4-4-2 to the Over across the last 10 head-to-head meetings.
- Despite a stretch with just one win in their last five, the Yankees continue to open as sizable favorites in virtually every game. Over their last 10 games, they’ve gone 4-6 and lost bettors nearly three units.
- Boston has also gone 4-6 over its last 10 games but has lost bettors a little more to the tune of -3.4 units.
Yankees vs Red Sox trend
The Red Sox have hit the Under in 22 of their last 37 games at home (+6.60 Units / 16% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Red Sox.
Yankees vs Red Sox game info
| Location: | Fenway Park, Boston, MA |
| Date: | Friday, 7-26-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | YES, NESN |
| Yankees starting pitcher: | Nestor Cortes (4-9, 3.99 ERA) |
| Red Sox starting pitcher: | Brayan Bello (10-5, 5.27 ERA) |
Yankees vs Red Sox latest injuries
Yankees vs Red Sox weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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