The biggest rivalry in baseball closes out the week on Sunday Night Baseball as the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox wrap up a four-game set at Fenway Park.
In addition to our full betting preview for Yankees vs. Red Sox on SNB, we've also prepared a platter of player prop picks from this clash. We're going to take a closer look at Red Sox righty Nick Pivetta's longevity and Giancarlo Stanton's all-or-nothing approach while also considering Trevor Story's ability to drive in runs.
MLB props for Yankees vs Red Sox
Picks made on 7/10/2022 at 2:30 p.m. ET.
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best Yankees vs Red Sox prop bets
Pivot to Pivetta
Red Sox right-hander Nick Pivetta is enjoying what can largely be considered his breakout season, posting a 3.68 ERA over 17 starts entering Sunday night. He's limiting home runs for seemingly the first time in his six-year career, which will come in handy if he can continue to suppress power against the potent Yankees lineup.
Pivetta's season opened fairly poorly, completing five innings only once in his first five starts — incidentally, against these very Yankees in his first outing — but has been a completely different pitcher since his May 7 start against the Chicago White Sox.
Ignoring, for a moment, his most recent start against the Tampa Bay Rays where he allowed seven earned runs on eight hits in 5 2-3 innings, Pivetta had gone 8-1 with a 1.95 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in 74 innings over his previous 11 outings. He finished at least six innings in 10 of those starts, including a complete-game dismantling of an excellent offense in the Houston Astros.
His outs recorded total is available at 17.5 with the Over at -105, requiring him to get 18 outs — or finish six innings. And even in that less-than-stellar showing against the Rays, he still came close. He only threw 85 pitches in that game after topping that number in nine consecutive starts, so Pivetta should be relatively fresh.
This will be especially important tonight because the Red Sox need to give the bullpen some rest. Boston used five different relievers in Saturday night's 6-5 win and was forced to use outfielder Jackie Bradley Jr. in mop-up duty on Friday night after four relievers took to the mound in Thursday's series opener.
The Red Sox bullpen has been taxed all year, tossing more innings than all but six other teams. Pivetta has been one of the team's anchors and he'll be leaned on tonight in hopes of earning a series split. As long as he limits the free passes, which he has of late (2.37 BB/9 over his last 12), Pivetta should be able to navigate a dangerous Yankees lineup for six innings.
Nick Pivetta prop: Over 17.5 outs recorded (-105)
Last man Stanton
Giancarlo Stanton has been an all-or-nothing proposition since pretty much the beginning of June, batting .155 across 123 plate appearances. He has just 16 hits in that span but 10 of them have been home runs and two have been doubles.
It's easy to fade Stanton almost automatically due to how much he's seemingly labored at the plate, but it shouldn't be that simple.
For one, Stanton still hits the absolute shit out of the ball. His average exit velocity is 95.5 mph, which ranks second to fellow beef castle Yordan Alvarez (96.0 mph). Only teammate Aaron Judge has a higher barrel percentage than his 22.3% among qualified hitters.
And since the start of June, which is still not a sample size you can really use as evidence that he's suddenly washed, Stanton has an absurdly low .098 BABIP. Consider that he's still been an above-average hitter by wRC+ (114) in that time and he's going to see some positive regression at the plate.
Pivetta actually serves as a perfect igniter for Stanton's bat. He strikes out fewer than a batter per inning and he's surrendering a ton of hard contact. Only Seattle Mariners right-hander Logan Gilbert has a higher hard-hit percentage among qualified pitchers in MLB this season.
Judge is the more obvious pick, and he's priced accordingly at around -140 to clear 1.5 total bases. Pivetta's done a decent enough job at limiting home runs that he's not worth the roll of the dice on that market, either, so we're backing Stanton in a matchup that fits his skills well.
Giancarlo Stanton prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+115)
What's the Story, morning glory?
There's a good reason Trevor Story leads the Red Sox with 55 RBI despite batting in the bottom half of the lineup for much of the season. He's hitting almost directly behind the team's best on-base threats in Xander Bogaerts and J.D. Martinez (Rafael Devers will miss Sunday's game, or he'd be another name in that murderer's row).
Normally, you'd likely favor the player hitting third or fourth to cash in but without Devers slotted in the two-hole, Martinez and Bogaerts may become table-setters. Rob Refsnyder has been acquitting himself admirably from the leadoff position over the last two games, but he's a career .237 hitter and can't fully be relied upon if he's in that spot again tonight.
Like Pivetta, Yankees starter Jameson Taillon hasn't been a strikeout master this season despite his sustained success. He's also hit a bit of a rough patch in which he's allowed 14 earned runs on 23 base hits in 16 innings in his last three starts and hasn't finished six innings in any of his last six outings. He's getting himself into trouble and opposing lineups are doing damage.
And as good as the Yankees bullpen has been, it's been similarly taxed in recent days. They've used three relievers in each of the three preceding games. With Taillon's recent inability to pitch deep into games, a weary bullpen could give way to more chances for Boston to plate runs and Story stands to be in the best position to take advantage if he's batting behind the usual suspects.
Trevor Story prop: Over 0.5 RBI (+163)
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