New York City FC will begin their title defense this weekend in Southern California, as they head west to take on the Los Angeles Galaxy.
NYCFC have already taken one major step towards a strong title defense, retaining the league's Golden Boot winner, Taty Castellanos, over the offseason. He'll be key to NYCFC's success in 2022, starting in L.A. on Sunday.
The Galaxy, meanwhile, are looking to get back atop the MLS mountain, after back-to-back years out of the playoffs and missing out on the postseason in four of the last five years. It's Los Angeles who is the MLS betting favorite Sunday — find out if it's warranted in our picks and predictions.
LA Galaxy vs New York City FC match odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Compare MLS odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
LA Galaxy vs New York City FC betting tips
Predictions made on 2/26/2022 at 2:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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LA Galaxy vs New York City FC game info
• Location: Dignity Health Tennis Center, Carson, CA
• Date: Sunday, February 27, 2022
• Time: 5:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
LA Galaxy vs New York City FC betting preview
Weather
A typically beautiful day is forecast for L.A. on Sunday, with no wind or clouds expected in the afternoon, and temperatures around 75 degrees Fahrenheit expected at kickoff.
Injuries
LA Galaxy: No injuries to report.
New York City FC: No injuries to report.
LA Galaxy vs New York City FC predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Side analysis
As mentioned, NYCFC took a major win over the winter, as Castellanos stayed in MLS — at least for now — amid interest from Europe. His presence means the defending MLS Cup champions are rolling back the spine of a championship team. More encouraging still, it's the core of a team that quite clearly underperformed during last year's regular season before playing to their level when the games counted.
While NYCFC finished fourth in the Eastern Conference last season, they had the highest expected goal difference per 90 at 0.67, a product of a balanced team. They were second in expected goals and had the third-most shot-creating actions per 90, while finishing second in goals allowed, xGA, and shot-creating actions against per 90.
That balance shined in the postseason, as NYCFC upset the best regular season team in league history, the New England Revolution, before then knocking out the No. 2 seed Philadelphia Union and MLS Cup host Timbers. New York has, quite emphatically, proven it all with this core. Regular season results are all that need to follow.
The same can't be said for the Galaxy, who have quickly been pushed out of local relevancy by LAFC. The Galaxy's attack was solid last year, finishing around the middle of the league in both goals and xG. That was led by Chicharito's resurgence, with the legendary Mexican striker rebounding from a lost 2020 season by scoring 17 goals and finishing third in both goals and goals per 90. Chicharito should be expected to challenge for the Golden Boot winner again, as the league's most clinical finisher.
If L.A. was a tougher defensive team, we might look to an opening day draw. However, the Galaxy allowed the fifth-most goals and sixth-most expected goals against last year and do not seem to have improved much defensively. They'll look to trade blows with a champion as strong going forward and far more reliable in defense. It'll go as you would expect.
Prediction: New York City FC (+169)
Over/Under analysis
Despite underperforming for most of the year, NYCFC still averaged 1.6 goals from 1.7 xG per game last season. They retained Castellanos, revamped the core around him, and come into 2022 with a title to defend. There should be every expectation their attacking production increases this season, especially in games like this against a relatively weak Galaxy defense.
For their part, the Galaxy could pour in goals this year too. As mentioned, even at 33, Chicharito will continue to bang in the goals for L.A. and finish nearly every chance he gets as a clinical striker with over 130 career goals to his name. His finisher instincts and ability remained at a high-level last year, as he finished second among players to score double-digit goals in xG per shot — a perfect example of the quality of chances he was getting and creating.
While L.A. didn't address its defensive woes completely this offseason, it did round out a threatening attack. Chicharito will now be flanked by a player of similar quality in Douglas Costa, who comes to L.A. with a wealth of experience from a career with Shakhtar Donetsk, Bayern Munich, and Juventus, and Mark Delgado, a long-time MLS player whose best moments came under Galaxy manager Greg Vanney in Toronto.
The Galaxy have their fair share of issues to address in 2022 but goalscoring isn't one of them. In a clash with a similarly potent attacking team in NYCFC, expect the Over.
Prediction: Over 2.5 (-135)
Best bet
It's tough not to love the defending champions as our best bet, especially at such solid odds.
NYCFC were among the league's best goalscoring teams last year and didn't exactly get weaker, even with Jesus Medina's departure, as Castellanos is still joined by a host of talented attackers. The Galaxy's attack could be among the league's best this year but NYCFC's is as strong on paper and has the proven experience to back it up.
In defense, it's hardly even a comparison. The Galaxy don't have a standout defender, didn't exactly throw everything at addressing their defensive issues over the winter, and their numbers from 2021 pale in comparison to NYCFC's.
NYCFC have the edge in the attacking and defending thirds, and should have the numerical advantage in midfield with their wingbacks pushed high. They are the better team and they match up well with Sunday's hosts.
Pick: New York City FC (+169)
