A Western Conference clash in Major League Soccer action will headline Sunday's slate, as the Los Angeles Galaxy head north to take on the Portland Timbers.
Both L.A. and Portland have gotten off to inconsistent starts in the new season but MLS betting lines have the home Timbers as a +120 favorite, while the Galaxy come back at +200.
Here are our free soccer picks and predictions for the Portland Timbers vs. Los Angeles Galaxy, with kickoff set for April 3.
Timbers vs Galaxy match odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Compare MLS odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Timbers vs Galaxy betting tips
Predictions made on 3/30/2022 at 2:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Portland Timbers vs Galaxy game info
• Location: Providence Park, Portland, OR
• Date: Sunday, April 3, 2022
• Time: 4:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
Timbers vs Galaxy betting preview
Weather
A cloudy afternoon is expected in Portland on Sunday, with a 15% chance of rain and temperatures around 55 degrees Fahrenheit at kickoff.
Timbers vs Galaxy predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Side analysis
Portland's early-season frustrations continued last weekend at Providence Park against Orlando, as it fell behind and went down to 10-men before equalizing from the penalty spot in an eventual 1-1 draw. Even the penalty aside, the Timbers beat Orlando in expected goals, 0.95-0.5, and had 21 shot-creating actions compared to 15 for the visitors.
That underwhelming day in attack continued a theme of the Timbers' season, with their underlying numbers far more positive than their one win, three draws, and one loss record suggests. They aren't short on options going forward and have consistently produced good numbers in attack, as they're seventh in xG and ninth in shot-creating actions, so an expectation for positive regression isn't amiss.
Sunday's opponents aren't dissimilar to Portland, with the Galaxy posting encouraging figures as well, despite a two-game skid following consecutive wins to start the year. Even in those losses, however, L.A. acquitted itself well.
Trading blows with the Sounders, in Seattle, in an eventual 3-2 loss is as good of a loss as there is to take. Even more so when looking at the underlying numbers, with the Sounders winning the xG battle 2.0-1.8 with the benefit of a penalty, while totaling just 11 shot-creating actions compared to the Galaxy's 25. That was followed by a ridiculously frustrating 1-0 loss to Orlando, in which L.A. doubled Orlando's xG (1.4-0.7) and had an absurd 35 shot-creating actions (for comparison LAFC led the league in this stat last year with a per-game average of 24.38).
So, while the Timbers and Galaxy both reside in the middle of the league in points, they have both been better than those results suggest. L.A. is fifth in xG difference and Portland is 10th, both with positive marks there. Barring a sudden surge from one of these two after some hard luck in front of goal to start the season, they should share the points on Sunday.
Prediction: Draw (+250)
Over/Under analysis
Though both the Galaxy and Timbers have had modest goalscoring outputs through the first month of the season, with four and six goals respectively, they're among the leaders in xG. L.A. has created 7.1 xG while scoring just four, while Portland's created 6.8 xG to six goals scored.
In addition to both teams' high standing in shot-creating actions — the Galaxy are far and away the league leaders at 31.25 per 90 — there's plenty of reason to believe in both attacks starting to fire more consistently.
Neither the Over or Under are plays we would feel great about (both teams to score at -185 is a safer play even if it comes with shorter odds) but in a game in which both teams should score, with a 2.5 goal total, the Over has to be the pick here.
Prediction: Over 2.5 (-140)
Best bet
The legendary Chicharito bounced back emphatically in 2021, after a lost period of his career due to injuries and off-field turmoil. The Mexican striker netted 17 goals for the Galaxy a year ago and ran it back in 2022 with an improved supporting cast.
Chicharito has, unsurprisingly, picked up where he left off in 2022, with two goals in four starts from an xG of 2.7. He's not a striker to waste chances, finishing second among players to score double-digit goals in xG per shot last year (0.20), and isn't far off that mark in 2022 (0.18).
We're justified in expecting goals in this game and there is no better candidate to be on the scoresheet than Chicharito. To get him at +170 to score anytime is strong value and our best bet in this game.
Prediction: Chicharito anytime goalscorer (+170)
