A NASCAR season that got off to a bizarre and unpredictable start has begun to round into form. As the circuit arrives at Dover International Speedway for the Drydene 400, Martin Truex Jr. has cemented himself as the driver to beat.
Truex won last weekend's Goodyear 400, claiming his second victory of the season and moving into the top spot on the NASCAR Cup Series odds board (+500). Favored again for this week's race, can Truex pull off back-to-back wins?
Get the inside track on your bets with Covers Experts' Auto Racing Advisor preview and picks for the Drydene 400, which gets underway at 3:00 p.m. ET on May 16.
Drydene 400 favorites: I know this much is Truex
Kevin Harvick (+750)
Why not? Six straight Top-6 finishes, including two wins. He was fourth in both races in 2019 and the first one of last year before winning the second race of the doubleheader weekend last season.
Denny Hamlin (+600)
Hard to ignore here. One of the fastest drivers of the season has four Top-7 finishes in his last six Dover starts, including a runner-up in 2018 and a win last season. He’s had a Top-5 result in literally all 750 horsepower tracks run this season.
Martin Truex Jr. (+350)
The speed is there. Truex has a win in the spring race of 2019 and three straight runner-ups to follow. Since 2014, he has 12 Top-10 finishes (14 starts) including eight Top-4 finishes in his last nine tries. He’s won twice on 1-mile or shorter tracks already this season and coming off of a win last Sunday.
Kyle Larson (+450)
Just look at what he’s done at this track with Ganassi. Larson was third and first respectively in 2019. He has nine Top 10s in his last 11 starts there including six of them being in the top five. Now that he’s with Hendrick Motorsports…
Covers NASCAR Betting Content
Drydene 400 long-shot picks: out of the Cole
Alex Bowman (+1,800)
A Top-3 finish in both races in 2019 to go along with a fifth-place run in the second race last year gives him three in his last four tries.
William Byron (+1,600)
He was fourth in the second race last year and is driving better this season than ever before.
Cole Custer (+20,000)
A pair of Top 10s last year as a rookie and a win in the Fall of 2019 in the Xfinity Series make him a strong sleeper. Custer actually had five Top-8 results in six NXS starts on the Monster Mile to go along with a fifth-place finish in Trucks there in 2016.
Drydene 400 matchup pick: ringing the Bell
Ryan Blaney (-143) vs. Christopher Bell (+108)
This isn't a good weekend in Dover for Penske drivers. None are particularly that good on the concrete mile and Blaney has no Top-5 finishes and just two total Top 10s in 10 starts. Bell, meanwhile, is getting plus money and has been good at Dover in past series, to go along with being in a JGR car now.
PICK: Bell (+108)
Drydene 400 fades: Penske is not mightier
Team Penske (various odds)
I'd fade all Penske drivers this weekend. Odd, I know. But Brad Keselowski has not had a Top 5 in his last eight Dover starts, and just one in his last 12 overall there. Blaney has no Top 5s in ten tries, with Joey Logano having one Top 5 in his last 12 starts at Dover.
Drydene 400 preview
For the first time since 1970, the NASCAR Cup Series is visiting the Dover Downs just once this year. They’ll do so this weekend in what should be a barn burner between the Joe Gibbs Racing and Hendrick Motorsports camps.
Martin Truex Jr. has won three of the five races on 750 tracks this season. He’s also had four straight Top-2 results at Dover, including eight Top 5s in his last nine starts there. His teammate Denny Hamlin has a Top-5 finish in literally every 750 track run this season, to go along with four Top-7 finishes in his last six at Dover, including a win last year.
Aren’t these the two drivers to beat?
Joey Logano has been great on 750 tracks this year, with a Top 3 in all but two races, though he’s only had one Top 5 in his last 12 Dover starts. He does have four Top 8s in his last five tries there though too. His teammates Brad Keselowski and Ryan Blaney have combined for just one Top 5 since 2015. Blaney is 0-for-10 in Top 5s at Dover with only two total Top 10s, while Keselowski’s Top 5 came in the 2016 playoff race.
Kevin Harvick has been down this season, but he has four straight Top 4s and six straight Top 6s at Dover, including a win last August too. How does he factor into this?
Then you have the Hendrick guys. Kyle Larson was third and first respectively in 2019. He has nine Top 10s in his last 11 starts there, including six in the Top 5. Now that he’s with Hendrick Motorsports…
What about Chase Elliott? He’s scored three Top-5 finishes in his last five Dover starts. His other two finishes are 38th and 39th, respectively. Alex Bowman has three Top-5 results in his last four Dover tries, while William Byron has been solid on 750 tracks this season and was fourth the last time out at Dover.
Drydene 400 key stat
Since the stage era started in 2017, the eventual race winner has finished in the Top 10 at the end of the two stages per race in all but one try. Furthermore, 13 of the 14 stages run have seen the eventual race winner finish in the Top 5. In the final stage (eight times) the race winner finished in the Top 10 in all of them, with a Top-5 finish in seven of the eight. Five of the last six final stages have seen the eventual race winner finish either first or second, including both races last year seeing the winners sweep both stages.
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