After a brief respite, NASCAR betting returns for the regular-season home stretch, with playoff implications in the air everywhere heading into this weekend's Go Bowling at The Glen.
It's another road course race, meaning a niche for several of the circuit's top drivers, two of which have been particularly dominant.
Get the inside track on your NASCAR bets with Auto Racing Advisor preview and picks for the 2021 Go Bowling at The Glen, which gets underway at 3:00 p.m. ET on Sunday, August 8.
Go Bowling at The Glen favorites
Chase Elliott (+200)
He’s won each of the last two years in Watkins Glen and has won five of the last nine overall.
Martin Truex Jr. (+600)
He’s finished runner-up to Elliott in each of the last two years but won the year prior in 2017.
Kyle Larson (+450)
Hard to bet against the guy that was runner-up in COTA and won in Sonoma. He’s also had a pair of Top 10s in each of his last two Watkins Glen starts too.
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Go Bowling at The Glen long-shot picks
Ryan Blaney (+2,500)
Worth a risk here. He has two Top 10s in his last three Watkins Glen starts and enters having scored four Top-6 finishes in his last five races on the season.
Kurt Busch (+2,000)
He’s scored some Top 10s on road courses this season and also has seven straight Top-11 results in Watkins Glen.
Matt DiBenedetto (+5,000)
He was sixth last time out in 2019 with Leavine Family Racing. Can he make some magic on Sunday?
Go Bowling at The Glen matchup pick
Ryan Blaney (-105) vs. Alex Bowman (-115)
Normally, I'd side with Blaney in this, but on road courses this season, Bowman actually has finished ahead of Blaney in three of the four.
PREDICTION: Bowman (-115)
Go Bowling at The Glen fades
Brad Keselowski (+3,000)
He was 19th,15th and 13th in the last three road course races.
Ryan Blaney (+2,500)
In the same three races, he was 13th, 10th and 20th, respectively.
Kevin Harvick (+3,000)
His four road course results in 2021 are sixth, 37th, 22nd and 27th, respectively.
Go Bowling at The Glen preview
Following a two-week break, NASCAR is back this weekend in upstate New York. Right now, the attention goes directly to the playoffs with four races remaining in the regular season. Aric Almirola’s surprise win in the last race in Loudon tuned the playoff standings around with Austin Dillon getting knocked out as his Richard Childress Racing teammate, Tyler Reddick, now leads him by just five points for that final spot. That’s so long as anyone behind them doesn’t win over the next four weeks, too.
On the flip side, Denny Hamlin leads Kyle Larson by 13 points for the overall points lead. Hamlin has yet to win a race this year, and by holding onto this spot, he has a guaranteed playoff berth too. That’s 14 drivers in, with two spots available for wildcard drivers.
Right now, those two spots go to Kevin Harvick and Reddick. The final two playoff spots on points are going to come down to these two and Dillon. Everyone else is just playing for wins with three of the final four regular season tracks being on road courses (Watkins Glen, Indianapolis) or superspeedways (Daytona).
It all starts on Sunday in Watkins Glen. Do we see another shock winner? Odds say no.
Hendrick Motorsports has won 7 of the last 8 overall road course races in general. Joe Gibbs Racing and HMS have combined to win each of the last 9 road course races. Throw in Furniture Row Racing (Martin Truex Jr.) who was aligned with JGR, these three teams have won 12 of the last 13 road course races. The only one they didn’t win was when Ryan Blaney (Team Penske) was victorious in 2018 on the Charlotte ROVAL when Truex was crashed in the final turn on the final lap.
Stewart-Haas Racing is the only other team to have won since 2015 on road courses. Hendrick has won 8 times, JGR has won 4 times, Furniture Row, SHR and Penske each twice themselves. That’s 18 races.
Of the winners in this span, only Elliott (7 wins) and Truex Jr. (3 wins) have won multiple times. Christopher Bell, Kyle Larson, Ryan Blaney, Kevin Harvick, Denny Hamlin, Kyle Busch, Joey Logano and Tony Stewart are the only other winners. Among them, Stewart has since retired and the others are currently inside of the playoff grid.
I think it’s down to Elliott or the field though, so, who do you got? It’s intriguing in the sense that Elliott has won six of the last eight road course races in NASCAR. Among those six, two were at Watkins Glen. Can he three-peat the race on Sunday?
He’s the best road course racer in the game right now, including what should have been a win at the Daytona road course back in February, a win in COTA as well as Sonoma, to go along with a runner-up in Sonoma. That comes after winning on the Daytona road course and the ROVAL last year. He won Watkins Glen and the ROVAL in Charlotte as the final two road course races in 2019 too.
But, if you don’t take Elliott, you get Martin Truex Jr., who’s finished runner-up in each of the last two years at Watkins Glen to Elliott, in fact. Truex won in 2017, too.
Combined, they’ve won 10 of the last 13 road course races. The only ones that they didn’t win are the ROVAL in Charlotte in 2018 in which Truex crashed with the lead on the final lap, the Daytona road course back in February in which Elliott dominated and was leading before a fluke rain caution, and Sonoma where Larson was just dominant. That’s it.
So, in terms of favorites, you have to look at these two.
Then it comes down to that battle between Larson and Hamlin, not only for the points lead but for the win if either Elliott or Truex aren’t victorious on Sunday.
Larson dominated Sonoma and was runner-up at COTA. He has two straight Top-10 finishes at Watkins Glen. Hamlin has three Top-4 results in his last four Watkins Glen tries.
Don’t count out Kyle Busch either, who’s a past multi-time Watkins Glen winner to go along with four Top-7 results in his last five Watkins Glen tries.
That’s why the Elliott vs. the field question isn’t necessarily too far-fetched.
The other thing to watch is points. How do the guys on the playoff bubble handle this? They could use a win, but can they afford to give up stage points too?
Strategy is going to be key.
Go Bowling at The Glen key stat
Chase Elliott is looking to three-peat on Sunday. The last driver to win three straight was Jeff Gordon (1997-1999). Mark Martin is the only other driver to accomplish that feat as he did so in 1993, 1994 and 1995.
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