After a thrilling finish to the Daytona 500, top dog William Byron and his fellow compadres head down to Atlanta Motor Speedway to duel it out in the Ambetter Health 400. Live race coverage begins Sunday, February 23 at 3:00 p.m. ET on FOX.
Byron could play another big role in this week’s superspeedway showdown, with two victories at Atlanta already under his belt. However, with Kyle Larson flying under the radar once again, I'm looking to take a different, yet somewhat chalky, approach to this race.
Here are my free betting picks for Week 2 of the NASCAR Cup Series season.
Ambetter Health 400 prop picks
- Top Chevrolet: Kyle Larson (+800 at bet365)
- Top 10 finish: Christopher Bell (+100 at bet365)
- Denny Hamlin vs. Austin Cindric: Hamlin (+100 at bet365)
Ambetter Health 400 props and best bets
Top Chevrolet: Kyle Larson (+800 at bet365)
Every casual fan on God’s green earth is doubting the driver of the HendrickCars.com No. 5 car. However, fading Kyle Larson out of spite isn't the smartest idea here.
Larson has led the most laps at Atlanta since 2021 with 291. If not for some bad breaks, he could've picked up the win last year. Yes, I've heard the argument that Larson's "edge" is usually lost superspeedways, but the stats don't back that up.
When Larson gets comfortable on the track, he's a hard car to pass. Look no further than his victory at Bristol Motor Speedway in the Bass Pro Shops Night Race. He led 462 of 500 laps (92.4%), marking the most led by a Bristol winner since 1977. That may be a short track, but this still shows how dominant Larson can be when he's on his game.
Byron, Busch, and others should be knocking on the door in the later parts of the race, but a case could be made that the oddsmakers are flat-out disrespecting Larson with his current price of +800 at bet365 to be the top Chevy. This is a great spot to take a chance on NASCAR's golden boy.
Top 10 finish: Christopher Bell (+100 at bet365)
Christopher Bell has a great chance to crack the Top 10 at Atlanta Motor Speedway, and the numbers back it up.
With the track’s reconfiguration turning it into a superspeedway-style race, Bell’s skill set is well suited for the high-speed, pack-racing chaos. He’s shown time and again that he can handle tracks like Daytona and Talladega with multiple Top-10 finishes.
What makes Bell even more dangerous in Atlanta is his history on the track. Back in 2017, he dominated the Truck Series race, leading 99 of 130 laps. Even with the recent changes to the track, that kind of performance isn’t just a one-off. Experience like that can be a huge advantage when it comes down to crunch time.
Some may argue this price is too short, but anything better than -130 is +EV in my books. I'll take this play any day.
Denny Hamlin vs. Austin Cindric: Hamlin (+100 at bet365)
It’s easy to overlook the younger guys in the Cup Series, but Austin Cindric has some real talent, especially on superspeedways. He gave a solid performance in the Daytona 500 last week, leading some laps before finishing eighth after a late crash.
His drafting skills and ability to build momentum make him a real contender.
On the other hand, Denny Hamlin has a killer record with 54 Cup wins and knows how to play the strategy game, even if he’s had some rough finishes recently in Atlanta. His knack for adapting and managing tires is a big plus on this hybrid track.
While Cindric definitely shows promise, Hamlin's experience should give him the edge. I have Hamlin's line projected closer to -115, so even money makes this wager worth it.
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