One of NASCAR's biggest races of the season goes down on Sunday, April 6 at Darlington Raceway. When the action kicks off on FS1 at 3:00 p.m. ET, drivers will be looking to pay homage to legends of the past by showing off some old school and quite recognizable color schemes on their cars. Of course, while the good ol' boys are stuck chasing yesteryear's glory, I'll try to capture tomorrow's loot with my NASCAR race picks.
Sometimes the future is hard to interpret, but all signs point to the Terry Labonte-inspired Kyle Larson adding another trophy to his case by dominating the 2025 Goodyear 400. It also wouldn't shock me if Kyle Busch got the last laugh over NASCAR's very own version of the Green Goblin, Ross Chastain.
For info on these wagers and more, keep on reading as I give you the full rundown of this week's free betting picks for the much-anticipated Goodyear 400.
NASCAR prop picks for Goodyear 400
- Top 3 Finish: Kyle Larson (+150 at bet365)
- Winning Manufacturer: Chevrolet (+150 at bet365)
- Kyle Busch over Ross Chastain (+100 at bet365)
NASCAR Goodyear 400 props and best bets
Top 3 Finish: Kyle Larson (+150 at bet365)
I won't get into another discussion of why I respect Kyle Larson so much in my wagering. I did that a couple of weeks ago, and all the same reasons apply here.
One thing I'll say, though, is this +150 price could be a real bargain if Larson qualifies in the Top 10, especially the Top 5. If he happens to qualify outside of the Top 10, maybe in the 15th or 16th position, this price isn't terrible. It might be slightly -EV, but if this car is as good as Hendrick Motorsports has been touting it to be, I suspect Larson should do fine.
Regardless of where he starts, Larson is a beast. In fact, Larson paces all drivers in laps led at Darlington in the Next Gen car with 392.
In 14 career starts at Darlington Raceway, Larson has snagged one win, secured seven Top 5 finishes, and nine Top 10s. He also has an average start of 8.7 and an average finish of 10.8, which is second-best among active drivers.
Is this a big ask for Larson to finish in the Top 3? Sure. But can he do it? There aren't many other drivers I'd have the guts to bet on in this spot with these odds than Kyle Larson.
Winning Manufacturer: Chevrolet (+150 at bet365)
Even if Larson doesn't come through this time, there’s still a compelling case for a Chevrolet to come out on top in the 2025 Goodyear 400. Chevrolet boasts an impressive 44 wins at Darlington, solidifying its reputation as a top contender, with three victories in the Next Gen era — thanks to Erik Jones (September 2022), William Byron (May 2023), and Larson (September 2023).
Hendrick Motorsports, Chevrolet's leading team, stands out with 16 wins at Darlington, more than any other team. The Chevrolet cars consistently excel on Darlington's challenging layout, known for its tire wear and tough driving conditions. This was clearly demonstrated by Byron’s win in the 2023 spring race and Larson's remarkable showing in the 2024 Southern 500.
Additionally, several dark horse Chevrolet drivers could surprise everyone and vie for a victory. Austin Hill, making his first Cup start of the season in the No. 33 Richard Childress Chevrolet, brings momentum from his Xfinity success and could quickly adapt to deliver a strong performance.
Meanwhile, Justin Haley has been steadily improving in the Cup Series and may take advantage of strategic opportunities or late-race scenarios to secure an upset victory. While they might not be the frontrunners, these drivers possess the skills and potential to shake things up on race day. With a solid track record from various drivers and teams, Chevrolet's history at Darlington positions it favorably to compete for yet another win this weekend.
We haven't even mentioned Kyle Busch....
Kyle Busch over Ross Chastain (+100 at bet365)
Until now, that is.
Let me be clear: this play hinges solely on the price and my belief that Ross Chastain's aggressive driving style is likely to lead to a wreck during the race. In contrast, Busch seems set to drive more conservatively and should be able to finish the race come hell or high water.
There are a few solid empirical reasons to back Busch finishing ahead of Chastain, though.
For starters, Busch boasts 63 career Cup Series wins — making him the winningest active driver — and he has a strong track record at Darlington, with four Top 5s and 13 Top 10s throughout his Cup career.
Busch's knack for adapting to Darlington's tough surface and tricky turns shines through in his average finish of 11.4 at the track, a figure that ranks among the best for active drivers.
On a more subjective note, his experience in tackling Darlington's unique hurdles, such as managing tire wear and maintaining speed close to the wall, gives him a distinct advantage over Chastain, who hasn't yet shown the same level of consistency in the Cup Series (sorry, not sorry, Truck Series fans).
Does this feel like a sucker bet? Perhaps, but for anyone willing to take a gamble, it presents a solid opportunity to cash in on a +EV line.
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