Hendrick Motorsports' Kyle Larson has once again demonstrated why he’s often regarded as the G.O.A.T. of his generation, clinching victory in a nail-biter at Homestead-Miami. However, it’s clear that Larson is being overvalued this weekend at Martinsville Speedway. The silver lining is that his inflated odds open up a realm of opportunities for us in my free betting picks for the Cook Out 400.
When the NASCAR Cup Series drivers get ready for another good ol' short track race this Sunday, March 30 on FS1 at 3:00 p.m. ET, expect Ryan Blaney to be extra hungry to earn his first victory of the 2025 season.
NASCAR prop picks for Cook Out 400
- Top 3 Finish: Ryan Blaney (+140 at bet365)
- Top Ford: Ryan Blaney (+100 at bet365)
- Team of Race Winner: Team Penske (+300 at bet365)
NASCAR Cook Out 400 props and best bets
Top 3 Finish: Ryan Blaney (+140 at bet365)
If you tuned into the Straight Talk 400 last week, you likely noticed how strong Ryan Blaney performed. He led an impressive 124 laps during the race, and had it not been for some engine troubles, there's a good chance he would have secured the victory and denied Kyle Larson a win.
Despite that setback, Blaney is heading into a promising situation this week. The star of Team Penske has triumphed in two out of the last three Cup Series races at Martinsville. In his latest win back in November 2024, he led 32 laps and executed a key pass for the lead with just 14 laps remaining. Having grown up only 45 minutes from the track, many NASCAR fans believe Blaney knows Martinsville like the back of his hand.
Among drivers with at least 10 starts at Martinsville, Blaney boasts an impressive all-time average finish of 9.5, placing him sixth. If you remove his early years when he was still finding his footing, that average only improves.
I've heard some folks wondering about the Chevy drivers. After all, Larson took the win last week, and Chase Elliott is certainly due for a victory. Plus, William Byron always seems to be in the mix. While these drivers deserve their recognition, the oddsmakers are giving them plenty of respect. Larson’s odds appear fair across the board, but for drivers like Byron and Elliott, the prices are too short, translating to -EV bets.
On the other hand, I see some potential value in Blaney this week. I have him priced at -110 to finish in the Top 3, so landing him at +140 is quite appealing. The key is hoping that Blaney qualifies well. If he secures a Top 5 starting spot, that line is likely to shorten to -110 pretty quickly.
Top Ford: Ryan Blaney (+100 at bet365)
Ryan Blaney is the clear standout as the top Ford driver heading into the 2025 Cook Out 400 at Martinsville Speedway, and the statistics back this up.
He has two victories in the last three races at Martinsville and an impressive record of five Top 5 finishes in the last six races, giving him an average finish of 3.5 over the past three years — an unmatched performance. No other Ford driver comes close to his level of success.
Joey Logano has struggled this season and has not been able to break into the Top 10, despite leading numerous laps. Austin Cindric, although fast, does not have the proven track record on short tracks like Martinsville.
While Josh Berry has secured a win this season, his limited experience at Martinsville puts him at a disadvantage against Blaney.
Blaney’s ability to navigate Martinsville’s tight corners and ever-changing conditions makes him a formidable contender that is hard to beat. No other Ford driver can match his skill. And with even odds on this wager? That’s just the icing on the cake!
Team of Race Winner: Team Penske (+300 at bet365)
The great part about this prop is that it doesn’t have to be Blaney who crosses the finish line first. For instance, if Logano pulls off an upset, guess which team he races for? Team Penske.
Logano winning isn’t out of the question, either. He’s currently riding an impressive 11-race streak of Top-10 finishes at Martinsville, tying him with NASCAR legends like David Pearson and Dale Earnhardt. His stats are no joke: one win where he led 309 laps, an average finish of 10.8, and he’s completed all 32 of his races at this track.
But let’s be clear: the Cook Out 400 is primed for Blaney to take home the victory.
Looking back next week, some might call this a foolish bet, but honestly, I see a +EV opportunity here that has a solid chance of paying off.
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