Care to get some mud on the tires? NASCAR Cup Series odds makes its next stop at Bristol Motor Speedway in Bristol, Tennessee for the 2022 Food City Dirt Race.
As per usual, Kyle Larson sits atop the Food City Dirt Race odds board at +550 with the usual suspects behind him. Chase Elliot, William Byron, Denny Hamlin, Ryan Blaney, and Martin Truex Jr. are all available at better than 10/1 odds while last year's champion, Joey Logano, can also be had at +1,200.
Get the NASCAR betting low-down for the seventh race of the season with a preview and picks for the Food City Bristol Dirt Race with the green flag dropping at 7:00 p.m. ET on Sunday, April 17.
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Food City Dirt Race best bets
Picks made on 4/13/22 at 12:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick above to jump to the full analysis.
Food City Dirt Race favorites
Kyle Larson (+650)
Arguably the best dirt racer in the series today with how well he’s done around dirt tracks around the country in his extracurricular activities. Will that translate well over to Bristol?
Christopher Bell (+800)
Likely the second-best dirt racer in NASCAR. Stats don’t say it if you look at last year’s Bristol race, but take my word for it: Bell is one of the top dirt racers outside of NASCAR today.
Martin Truex Jr. (+1,400)
He won last year’s Pinty Truck Race on Bristol dirt, then he led 126 laps in this very race a year ago too. Not usually a strong Bristol racer but on dirt, he is.
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Food City Dirt Race longshot picks
Daniel Suarez (+2,000)
Finished fourth here last year after leading 58 laps and has been a factor in some races this season, too.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (+2,500)
Another dirt guy. With these odds, he's worth a go, especially after a runner-up finish in last year's race.
Austin Dillon (+5,000)
He won a late model race at Bristol last year and has a very successful dirt background. I like him at these odds for those reasons. Also, he enters having a runner-up finish last Saturday night in Martinsville.
Food City Dirt Race fades
Ryan Blaney (+1,600)
Not necessarily a dirt guy but finished eighth a year ago. Only has two Top-5 finishes this season, so I'd fade him.
Kevin Harvick (+3,500)
Finished just 15th here a year ago and only has one Top 5 this season. Stay away.
Food City Dirt Race matchup pick
Joey Logano (-160) vs. Martin Truex Jr. (+130)
Logano is only at these odds because of his race win here a year ago, but remember, he was 30-1 for that race. Truex, meanwhile, led 126 laps in the same race and was on the wrong strategy for the ending. With a Truck race win on dirt too, give me Truex Jr. at plus-money every time.
PICK: Truex Jr. (+130)
Food City Dirt Race preview
Arguably one of the hardest races to handicap, Sunday marks just the second Cup race on dirt since Sept. 30, 1970. It’s also just the 20th time they’ve raced on Easter weekend. However, 17 of those came between 1952 and 1971, with the last occurring in 1989.
This is also a new car and one that hasn’t raced on dirt before. You're essentially starting from scratch as you're going to a dirt track with only one year of history. Even so, that race ran during the day. This one will run on Easter night.
Joey Logano (+800) was a 30-1 winner last March in this very race. So far this season, seven of the eight races have seen a race winner with double-digit odds. We’ve seen a 28-1 (Austin Cindric) and 50-1 (Chase Briscoe) reach victory lane. We’ve also seen 25-1 Ross Chastain in COTA, 18-1 (Alex Bowman), and a pair of 12-1 odds (William Byron twice, Denny Hamlin) triumph too.
So, what do you get Sunday?
We know guys like Kyle Larson (+650), Christopher Bell (+800), Chase Briscoe (+1400), and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (+2500) come to mind as obvious favorites but how much can racing another form of vehicle on dirt translate over to a Cup car on dirt?
“The dirt guys, I would say, definitely have an advantage,” Kyle Busch noted. “The more experience you have on dirt, the more trust you have in what the vehicle can do on dirt and what your driving style is or what your driving technique can be and how you can trust the grip level that the dirt has versus what your car has. I think there’s a lot of things that the dirt guys can really pick up on. You always see in those truck races the guys that are good at it, that put some time into it, are better than the ones that are not.”
In saying that, the Top-6 finishers last year had odds entering the race of 30-1 (Logano), 14-1 (Stenhouse Jr.), 25-1 (Hamlin), 100-1 (Suarez), 50-1 (Newman), and 66-1 (Byron). 25-1 Martin Truex Jr. led the most laps.
So, how much does dirt experience truly play?
While the dirt guys know what the car should feel like from the driver's seat, wrestling a Cup car around a half-mile race track on dirt is a whole different beast than a midget.
“I think people look at me with all the experience that I have on dirt as being even more of a favorite,” said Larson. “But these cars are way different than what I typically race on dirt. They don’t drive anything like what I’m used to with a sprint car, midget, or now a dirt late model. These cars are way heavier and have a lot less horsepower than I’m used to on a dirt track.”
Food City Dirt Race key stat
The Stage 2 winner won this race last year, however, only twice all season has the race winner scored a Top-5 finish in the second stage. In fact, it was fifth in Fontana and second last week in Martinsville. The rest of the Stage 2 finishes for the eventual race winners are - sixth (Daytona), fifth (Fontana), did not score (Vegas), eighth (Phoenix), ninth (Atlanta), eighth (COTA), and did not score (Richmond).
Food City Dirt Race betting trend to watch
The driver to dominate early more often than not hasn't won this season. Just two times in the first eight races has the driver who’s led the most laps actually celebrated in victory lane on that day. Furthermore, the race winner really doesn’t tend to come along until the final stage.
Austin Cindric led zero laps before Lap 156 at Daytona. All his laps led came in the final stage.
Kyle Larson led one lap before Lap 167 in Fontana. Again, all but one of his laps led came in the final stage.
Alex Bowman had just 13 laps led before Lap 272 in Vegas.
Chase Briscoe had only led 19 total laps before Lap 230 in Phoenix.
William Byron had only led 20 laps before Lap 143 in Atlanta.
Ross Chastain had no laps led in the first two stages of COTA.
Denny Hamlin had no laps led in the first 395 laps in Richmond.
William Byron also led no laps in the first two stages of last Saturday night’s race in Martinsville.
That’s four races where the winner didn’t even lead a lap in the first two stages and another where they had led just one. Also, the last three races saw a driver lead every lap of the opening stage. Neither driver won outright in the end.
