"If you're not first, you're last!"
NASCAR prepares for some superspeedway madness at this weekend's GEICO 500. Will this season's run of surprise winners continue on one of the more high-variance tracks?
Get the NASCAR betting low-down for the return to Talladega in our Geico 500 picks and predictions, with the green flag dropping at 3:00 p.m. ET on Sunday, April 24.
You can also get a complete odds breakdown in our GEICO 500 odds.
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GEICO 500 best bets
Picks made on 4/20/22 at 11:10 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick above to jump to the full analysis.
GEICO 500 favorites
Ryan Blaney (+1,000)
He’s won two of his last five Talladega starts to go along with a Daytona win in last year’s regular-season finale. He’s become one of the best superspeedway racers in the sport and was fourth in the Daytona 500. Also, he enters having scored two straight Top-5 results on the season and four straight Top 10s overall.
Joey Logano (+1,200)
He has five Top-5 finishes in his last nine Talladega starts and is a three-time Talladega winner in his last 14 tries, too. Logano enters this weekend coming off two straight Top-3 finishes.
Brad Keselowski (+1,400)
You always go with Brad on a superspeedway race. He’s won six times at Talladega, including just last spring —he was also runner-up last fall. RFK Racing’s last two wins also came on superspeedways, so this could be a good omen this weekend. His first Cup win came here as a driver, so why not his first Cup win as an owner too? Keselowski won a Duel in Daytona in February and had the most laps led in the Daytona 500.
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GEICO 500 longshot picks
Bubba Wallace (+1,400)
His last three Top-5 finishes have all come on these types of tracks. He was runner-up in last August’s Coke Zero Sugar 400. He won the Fall Talladega race. He was runner-up at Daytona and was also running in second at the white flag in Atlanta last month, which was a similar package to Daytona/Talladega.
Kevin Harvick (+1,600)
He’s only had two Top-5 finishes in his last 20 Talladega starts. However, he was fourth and eighth last year though and has completely changed his approach for speedway racing. Harvick normally rides in the back for most of the race to ensure he’s there in the end just as he did in the Daytona 500. He was there in the end...He got caught up in a crash.
Aric Almirola (+2,000)
The Stewart-Haas Racing driver has eight Top-10 finishes in his last 11 starts at Talladega including five in the Top 5. He won there in the Fall of 2018, was fourth and spun across the finish line to a third-place result in June of 2020. Almirola finished fifth in the Daytona 500 too.
GEICO 500 fades
Kyle Larson (+1,600)
He’s never had a Top 10 in Talladega before. Heck, he’s never had a Top 5 on a superspeedway either. In fact, his last four finishes at Talladega are 39th, 40th, 40th, and 37th, respectively. Five of his last seven results are 39th or worse.
Kyle Busch (+1,600)
Not one of his better races. Busch’s last eight finishes in the fall Talladega race have been 11th or worse, including his last six being 30th, 27th, 26th, 19th, 27th and 27th, respectively. He was 32nd and 18th the last two spring races, as well as being 10th or worse in four straight spring races.
Martin Truex Jr. (+3,000)
He’s had one Top-5 finish at Talladega since 2007. His last 10 finishes there are 40th, 35th, 23rd, 26th, 23rd, 20th, 24th, 23rd, 31st, and 12th, respectively.
GEICO 500 matchup pick
Ryan Blaney (-120) vs. Chase Elliott (-110)
The Top 2 in Cup Series points would be an intriguing matchup normally, but with Elliott having one superspeedway win in his career and Blaney having won two of the last five at Talladega, as well as winning at Daytona last August, this pick is a trendy one.
PICK: Blaney (-120)
GEICO 500 preview
We’ve already have seen eight double-digit odds winners in nine races this season. Adding to the potential for upsets, nine of the last 15 superspeedway race winners in Cup competition earned either their first or second career victories in doing so.
Also, 33% (3-for-9) of the races run this season have been won by first-time winners. In saying that,Talladega is still a place you actually want to bet the favorites.
Since 1995, we’ve really only seen what you could consider seven “fluke” winners there. Just look at the names who have won lately. Keselowski, Logano, Blaney, Hamlin, Earnhardt Jr., Elliott, Almirola, Stenhouse Jr. All very good superspeedway racers.
So, while some of the longshots may look like the sexy picks, I’d side with “buyer beware.” You just have to look at who’s good on these tracks and break it down further from there. Speedway racing is a form of art and if you’re good at it, you’re good. If you’re not, well you typically end up crashing.
So, how do you break this down?
Eight out of the last nine winners came from the big teams at Penske, Hendrick, JGR or SHR. While it’s tempting to grab Michael McDowell (+3,000), Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (+3,000), Justin Haley (+6,000), Ty Dillon (+9,000) and even someone like Corey LaJoie (+10,000), I just don’t see why they’d all of a sudden find their way to Victory Lane. They’re better plays for a Top-10 finish instead.
Toyota has won the last two fall races but has only won three times in the last 26 races overall. Two of those were won by Denny Hamlin. They didn’t look great in Daytona but part of that is due to the lack of numbers compared to the rest of the manufacturers.
Hendrick Motorsports has won two of the last 21 races at Talladega and has Chase Elliott (one career superspeedway win) at +1,400, Kyle Larson (+1,600) at 0-for-30 in Top 5 on speedways, William Byron (+1,800) with six of his eight Talladega finishes being outside the Top 10, and Alex Bowman (+2,000) with a pair of 38th-place finishes last year.
Richard Childress Racing is 0-20 since 2012 at Talladega.
So, that opens up the door for the Ford camp. They have strength in numbers and the speed that it takes on these tracks.
Ford has won 10 of the last 13 overall Cup races at Talladega with five of the last six in the spring race. They went 1-2-3-4-5 in all four Cup practice sessions in Daytona, 1-2-3 and 1-2-3-4 in the 2 Duel races, as well as took seven of the Top 9 finishing spots for the Daytona 500 itself.
Stewart-Haas Racing had two cars in the Top 5 at Daytona and the only reason it wasn’t three was Kevin Harvick getting caught up in a crash inside of 10 laps remaining while running up front. Their strategy is to ride at the back to ensure that they’re there in the end, so these guys are great live bet picks.
Team Penske enters heating up on the season and are always great on superspeedways. RFK Racing is the other trendy pick too. They swept the Duels in Daytona and Brad Keselowski (stats above) led the most laps in the Daytona 500. Chris Buescher (+2,500), his teammate, also fits the first or second career win trend too.
GEICO 500 key stat
Only two pole winners (Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 2017, Denny Hamlin 2020) won in the last 34 Cup races at Talladega. Those are the only two front-row starters to win since the playoff race of 2011 (21 races). Five of the previous 13 races were won by front-row starters.
GEICO 500 betting trend to watch
In just one in the last four Talladega races has the eventual winner scored stage points in the opening stage. However, in each of the last three races there, the winner actually finished second in Stage 2. Furthermore, since 2017 (the start of stage racing) we’ve had 10 races at Talladega. The eventual race winner finished second in the second stage five times. They won another (spring 2019) and have a Top-6 finish in 80% of them.
In the first stage, they had five Top-4 finishes in the first six tries, but since? Just one Top 10 (sixth in spring 2020).
In three of the last four Cup races on the season, a driver has led every lap of the opening stage. None of them went on to win the race. Two of the last three race winners took over the lead inside of five laps to go. Half of the superspeedway races last year saw the winner lead just one lap all day - the final one. In fact, it happened in this very race last season. Wait to live bet at the end of the second stage.
