The NASCAR playoffs field is set, and the 16 remaining contenders will begin to whittle away at each other, with this weekend's Quaker State 400 odds tabbing a very even field at Atlanta Motor Speedway.
It's a unique approach for the playoffs to open on this track, and the NASCAR Cup Series odds could see early upheaval.
Indeed, it looks like anyone's race for the postseason opener; let's sort through the uncertainty with the latest NASCAR odds and Quaker State 400 betting picks.
Odds to win 2024 Quaker State 400
| Player |  |
|---|---|
| Ryan Blaney | +1,000 |
| Kyle Busch | +1,000 |
| Joey Logano | +1,000 |
| Brad Keselowski | +1,100 |
| Chase Elliott | +1,200 |
| William Byron | +1,200 |
| Kyle Larson | +1,400 |
| Denny Hamlin | +1,400 |
| Daniel Suarez | +1,400 |
| Chris Buescher | +1,400 |
DraftKings odds as of 9-3-2024.
| Player |  |
|---|---|
| Denny Hamlin | +1,000 |
| Brad Keselowki | +1,000 |
| Ryan Blaney | +1,000 |
| Joey Logano | +1,000 |
| Kyle Busch | +1,200 |
| Kyle Larson | +1,400 |
| Chase Elliott | +1,400 |
| Daniel Suarez | +1,400 |
| William Byron | +1,600 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | +2,000 |
BetMGM odds as of 9-3-2024.
| Player |  |
|---|---|
| Ryan Blaney | +1,000 |
| Kyle Busch | +1,000 |
| Joey Logano | +1,000 |
| Brad Keselowski | +1,200 |
| Chase Elliott | +1,200 |
| William Byron | +1,200 |
| Kyle Larson | +1,600 |
| Denny Hamlin | +1,600 |
| Daniel Suarez | +1,600 |
| Chris Buescher | +1,600 |
bet365 odds as of 9-3-2024.
Quaker State 400 field
Between this being the first postseason race, and effectively run on a superspeedway track, we're not going to see much of a flatter odds distribution at any point this season.
No drivers are available below 10:1 — an anomaly pretty much reserved for high-variance superspeedways — and the Top 14 drivers are all wedged between +1,000 and +2,000, which hasn't happened all season.
There's a crowded glut of favorites at +1,000, with 2021 Atlanta winner Ryan Blaney and 2023 winner Joey Logano priced as co-favorites at multiple books. They also happen to be the last two Cup Series champions, and will look to cement themselves in the next round with an early win.
Despite missing the playoffs, Kyle Busch is also priced among the favorites; a two-time winner on this track, despite the last being over a decade ago. Last season saw many non-playoff drivers upending the championship contenders, and we can already see books baking that trend into this year's prices, with 2023's typical odds dropoff after the Top 16 nowhere to be seen on this odds board.
Quaker State 400 expert picks and predictions
Odds listed below courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook as of 9-3.
Quaker State 400 pre-qualifying favorites
Ryan Blaney (+1,000)
In his last eight Atlanta starts, Blaney has seven Top-10 finishes, including a runner-up in a photo finish in February. He’s led at least a lap in eight of the last nine Atlanta races including finishes of seventh and ninth, respectively, a year ago. He finished in the Top 4 in three of the stages four last season too.
Kyle Busch (+1,000)
He had a fast car in Daytona, won at a drafting track in Talladega last season and has scored eight Top-10 finishes in his last 10 Atlanta tries. That includes finishes of 10th and fifth in his first season at Richard Childress Racing a year ago, and being part of that three-wide photo finish this spring. On top of that, Busch has two consecutive runner-up finishes including the return Daytona trip two weeks ago.
Brad Keselowski (+1,100)
Had a shot to win the Daytona 500 before a late-race crash and was runner-up at Talladega this past spring, too. For Atlanta, Keselowski was runner-up after leading 47 laps last spring and brought his No. 6 Ford home sixth in the rain-shortened summer race after leading 19 more laps. That’s why, despite finishing 33rd in the spring race this year, I’m high on Keselowski.
Quaker State 400 sleepers
Ross Chastain (+1,600)
Worth the risk to me. Chastain was 13th and 35th here a year ago, but also runner-up in both races in 2022, seventh this spring, and had a car capable of winning February’s Daytona 500.
Austin Cindric (+1,800)
Fords were quick last year, Cindric was running in the Top-5 coming to the final lap at Daytona and has finished third, 11th, 12th and fourth, respectively, in his last four Atlanta tries.
Alex Bowman (+3,500)
Bowman has two Top-5 finishes in four superspeedway starts this season, including a runner-up in the season-opening Daytona 500.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (+4,500)
He finished sixth in the spring race and fourth at Talladega.
Quaker State 400 fades
Joey Logano (+1,000)
Tough one here. On one hand, he had the fastest car at Daytona in February by winning the pole and leading the most laps. He also won the pole, led 140 laps and took home the win in the 2023 Atlanta spring race. On the other, that win is also his only Top-5 finish in his last 12 Atlanta starts including finishes of ninth, 26th, 17th, and 28th on this draft package. Logano finished 32nd (Daytona 500) and 19th (Talladega) this season.
William Byron (+1,200)
Should be the favorite. He just won the Daytona 500, won the spring race last year and has won two of the last five Atlanta races overall. However, three of his last six Atlanta finishes are also 20th or worse and he was 17th this spring.
Chase Elliott (+1,200)
Was 13th in his lone Atlanta start a year ago, but he won the July 2022 race to go along with being sixth in the spring event that season. However, Elliott has finished 14th, 15th, 15th and 36th, respectively, on superspeedways this season, too.
Kyle Larson (+1,400)
Now that this race shifted to a speedway type of racing package, that negates Kyle Larson’s advantage. Larson has never won a superspeedway race and has just one Top 5 in 45 starts on them. He’s finished 30th, 13th, 31st, 36th and 32nd, respectively, at Atlanta with this package.
Denny Hamlin (+1,400)
Toyota has struggled in Atlanta and Hamlin was only 29th and 25th respectively in his pair of Atlanta starts in 2022, sixth and 14th a year ago, and 23rd this spring. Five of his last six Atlanta starts have seen him finish 13th or worse.
Quaker State 400 prop pick
Daniel Suarez Top-5 finish (+275)
Daniel Suarez is +1,400 to win outright, and while it’s intriguing to bet being that he won the spring race, the odds of him doubling his career win total at one track are slim. Suarez came into 2024 with his only victory coming at Sonoma. To go 2-for-2 at Atlanta would be ambitious. But, the safe play is a Top-5 finish. Suarez is a sneaky sleeper here. He has four Top-6 finishes in his last five Atlanta starts including a runner-up last July as well. I like him on a Top-5 play on Sunday.
Pick: Daniel Suarez Top-5 finish (+275 at bet365)
Popular motor sports futures odds
Atlanta Motor Speedway track analysis
The Atlanta Motor Speedway remains the same as it was the last couple of years. A reconfigured drafting track that’s most comparable to Daytona International Speedway and Talladega Superspeedway. The only difference between Atlanta and those tracks is that it’s one mile shorter in length meaning that a lot can happen in a hurry.
The spring race differs also from the summer race in standpoint of ambient temperatures. A cool February day means less track temp, and less track temp means more grip for these tires.
A September race is a hotter air temp which means a hotter track temp and less grip allowing for a little more separation, even with racing under the lights.
Quaker State 400 trends
- Chevrolet has won four of the five drafting-style races at Atlanta. Team Penske with Joey Logano in the spring of 2023 is the outlier. Chevrolet is 10-for-15 in this generation of car on superspeedway’s in general.
- Toyota hasn’t won at Atlanta Motor Speedway since 2014. The manufacturer has only reached victory lane twice in the Peachtree state. Toyota is 1-for-15 in victories with this car, with the win coming on a last-lap pass this spring in Talladega. Toyota is 1-for-the-last-10 at Daytona and 4-for-the-last-30 at Talladega
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Previous Quaker State 400 winners
*Race was held at Kentucky from 2011 through 2020.
| Year | Winner |
| 2023 | William Byron |
| 2022 | Chase Elliott |
| 2021 | Kurt Busch |
| 2020* | Cole Custer |
| 2019* | Kurt Busch |
| 2018* | Martin Truex Jr. |
| 2017* | Martin Truex Jr. |
| 2016* | Brad Keselowski |
| 2015* | Kyle Busch |
| 2014* | Brad Keselowski |
How to make Quaker State 400 picks
NASCAR betting is a nuanced process that can take any number of factors into account, and spans several different types of bets. Fortunately, our How to Bet NASCAR guide walks you through the basics, including how to read odds, different markets that are available, and what to consider when making your bets.
